Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across Major League Baseball. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
In last week’s Reacts survey results, Peter noted that Yankees fans seemed pessimistic about the team’s chances of postseason success. A playoff berth was a cinch at 88 percent, but only 35 percent had them returning to the World Series after a one-year absence. Just
22 percent saw them hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy for the first time since 2009. The most common prediction had them losing in the early rounds of the playoffs, as they’ve done three times already under Aaron Boone this decade, most recently last October against the Blue Jays. The exceptions were an ALCS sweep at the hands of Houston in 2022, a bizarre playoff absence in 2023, and the gut-wrenching loss to the Dodgers in the 2024 Fall Classic.
As such, Yankees fans might be a little jaded by this generation of players at this point. The franchise with 27 championships to their name has won only once in the past 25 years — a span that’s seen the historic rival Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros, Giants, and Cardinals all win multiple titles in contrast. Other fanbases likely see this perspective as spoiled, but their owners and front offices aren’t the ones always crowing about championship-caliber operations and legendary traditions, with wildly expensive tickets to boot. In a way, the Yankees are forever burdened by late owner George Steinbrenner’s “World Series or bust” mindset, even as the ever-expanding playoff field has made it harder to find sustained postseason success than it was in the dynastic late-1990s (let alone before divisional play in 1969, when the Yanks accrued 20 of those 27 titles). But again, they always lean into it. So they must wear it.
Anyway, those are just some thoughts on last week’s survey results, which still relate to this week’s since they’re also focused on predictions. This time around, we asked for forecasts on Aaron Judge’s 2026 home run count and the Yankees’ final wins total. Whether it’s because the Yanks were gradually building a strong 5-1 start on the West Coast or because fans generally have more confidence in their regular season success, the findings were more optimistic.
A confident 72 percent of fans think that Judge will top the 50-homer threshold for the fifth time in his career, which would break a tie with Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa for the most 50-homer seasons in MLB history. He hit 52 during his AL Rookie of the Year-winning 2017 before famously clubbing 62 in 2022, when he captured his first AL MVP. His second and third MVP honors came after 58 and 53 in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with an eye-popping 20.6 rWAR and a 219 OPS+ between the latter two campaigns. Judge was even on pace for 50 in 2023 until the Dodger Stadium bullpen fence got in the way! There’s a reason why he’s fourth on the Yankees’ all-time list behind only Ruth, Mickey Mantle, and Lou Gehrig.
So yes, there is reason to feel good about Judge remaining a force at the plate, even with his 34th birthday on deck in late April. The most common range selected was 50-54 dingers at 22 percent, though 16 percent had him matching 2022 by topping 60. Judge already has two bombs this year, and with 30 more, he’ll join teammate Giancarlo Stanton with 400 homers. Both will be hoping to eventually punch their tickets to the more prestigious 500 Home Run Club. Judge is a truly special, Hall of Fame-caliber hitter, and we can only cross our fingers and hope that unlike in 2024 (when the team thrived while Judge slumped) and 2025 (when Judge thrived but the team slumped), the Yankees and their captain are on the same page come October.
Before we get out of here, how about that win prediction?
Ninety-five wins would have been enough to win the AL East in 2025, and over half the fans voting (54 voting) think that the Yankees can get there in 2026. They fell one win shy of that last year, and while that total won the AL East (and the Junior Circuit’s top seed) in 2024, the 2025 Blue Jays were a tougher opponent than anyone else in the division during the previous campaign. And because the Jays had the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Yankees, they were the ones who skipped the Wild Card round, set their playoff rotation, and got to open at home. Maybe the Yanks would’ve lost anyway if they had those advantage since again, few players aside from Judge showed up last October, but the importance was apparent — if not only in the raucous Jays fans’ energy.
Fans are hopeful again in 2026, and the 5-1 start is as good as they could’ve hoped for from a season-opening West Coast road trip. Let’s see what Judge and the Yanks do with it from there.
These survey results are sponsored by FanDuel.
