The World Series is over, every team has started it’s annual start-of-the-offseason roster housekeeping, and the hot stove is about to heat up.
For this week’s MaiLLbag, I’ve picked four questions and enlisted
Max, Kate, and Eric for an assist. If you asked a question in the site comments or on BlueSky and haven’t seen it answered yet, don’t worry, I’ll get to it soon. If you have a question, feel free to leave it in the comments, send it to me on BlueSky, or email me at jake.mailhot[at]gmail.com.
“I’m by no means a Max Ellingsen, but my rough sense by reading and going up to Everett a few times is that while Colt Emerson is the consensus best prospect, Michael Arroyo may have the best hit tool. Is that reaching? And, going into the offseason, with Jerry Dipoto having said that Emerson will play a role at some point in 2026, is there a realistic chance he makes the team out of camp, or is that just too quick given he only had a promotion to AA this past summer?”
Arroyo has trended away from the pure “hittability” profile he had in his first year-ish as a professional in order to get to more power in-game, and it’s paid off for him handsomely, however I subsequently prefer Emerson’s hit tool right now. It’s mostly an approach thing, but the way everything plays out on the field gives Colt at least a half grade advantage. Both excellent bats nonetheless.
If you would’ve asked me whether I thought Emerson had a chance to break camp with the club this past summer, I would’ve told you it seems like a longshot. At present, it’s a completely different story. The organization gave him a cup of coffee in Tacoma to end the season and he managed to pummel opposing pitchers to the tune of a .364/.444/.727 slashline, good for a 1.172 OPS,. It would be bold to count on a 20 year old with less than 200 PA’s across AA/AAA to be an opening day starter on a team that’s trying to be one of the premiere clubs in the league, and I still think they’ll give Ben Williamson another go of things (for better or for worse), but there’s a world where it happens. —Max
“What would you set the over/under for WAR contributions in 2026 from Mariners players 22 or younger?
Aside from the two players on the roster who are 22 or younger (Cole Young and Harry Ford, who actually doesn’t count for this because he will be 23 next year), I think 2026 is a transition year for the big prospects. Colt Emerson feels the most likely to me of that group to see significant time in 2026, maybe similar to how Cole Young’s call-up was meant to jump-start a flagging infield offense. Kade Anderson could make an impact later in the year if they’re title-chasing again, like what the Tigers did with Troy Melton, but I think they’re comfortable enough with what they have at the big-league level, and developmentally, they’d prefer to keep Anderson and Luke Stevenson together as much as possible. (Sneakily, I think we see Jurrangelo Cijntje before Anderson in a bullpen role, but he doesn’t even count for this exercise because he’ll be playing 2026 as his age-23 season). Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo are both on the doorstep as well, but both have work to do and benchmarks to clear: Montes’s strikeouts, especially when he sees the breaking stuff at Triple-A, and Arroyo’s defense. Of course the baseball season is long and weird and injuries continually shape team decision-making, but ideally, each has another year of development.
So to get back to the question, I’m predicting the bulk of this value to come from Young, assuming he can successfully fend off Ryan Bliss or anyone else for the starting second base job. I do think Young is better than he showed, both offensively and defensively, and he’ll account for most of the value between the two, but I’m still setting the over/under pretty low due to the reasons outlined above: 2.2, with a solid 1.5 of that coming from Young. —Kate
Of course, the fan and Mariners front office main priority is re-signing Josh Naylor. But how do you view the likelihood of the Mariners re-signing Jorge Polanco and Eugeno Suárez?
I’m not sure I would go so far as to say that the Mariners main priority is re-signing Naylor. It’s a priority for sure — the fit is there on both sides — but the competition for his services is going to be stiff with both New York teams likely in the mix along with a handful of other teams who could use a young-ish first baseman. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle look elsewhere to fill their 1B hole if the bidding for Naylor gets out of hand — Yandy Díaz seems like a fit if Tampa Bay is looking to cut payroll or maybe Ryan Mountcastle from Baltimore.
From my perspective, it feels like a reunion with Polanco is a bit more likely. We know he likes playing in Seattle, the swing changes he made this year unlocked a new offensive ceiling, and the Mariners are one of the few teams who have a roster fit for a mostly full-time DH who can play second or third in a pinch. Bringing back Polo allows the Mariners to slow down the development of Cole Young and Colt Emerson a bit by having a major-league-ready infielder on the Opening Day roster who can shift to full-time DH duty if either of those prospects really push for big league playing time in the spring.
I’m afraid the door is pretty shut on Suárez’s third stint in Seattle. It would be a shock to see them try and re-sign Geno, as beloved as he is by the fanbase. Ben Williamson looks poised to try and take on the full-time third base gig and it’s possible Emerson will force his way into the picture at the hot corner this spring as well. The one avenue that might open the door to re-signing Suárez is if the M’s wanted him to play first base — remember, he was getting reps at first towards the end of the season just in case. If Seattle strikes out on Naylor, Suárez wouldn’t be the worst fallback option if he’s open to the position change. —Jake
“From as objective a viewpoint as possible, which split was worse: A-Rod leaving for the Rangers or Junior going to Cincinnati?”
“From as objective a viewpoint as possible” (/takes a giant swig of water to cool the fight response this question has prompted) Ahem. Yes. Well, I can tell you without even looking at the stats that Alex Rodriguez leaving for Texas in 2001 was a worse loss for the Mariners than Griffey leaving for Cincinnati if all other circumstances like health and production are assumed to stay the same. That’s the objective answer. Okay, god dammit, I had to look at the stats:
This question actually trips the minefield of a special interest of mine, which is how the Mariners ownership and FO managed to ruin relationships with two generational position player stars by refusing to commit to either of them in the way both players deserved. Griffey may have always been destined to return to Ohio due to sheer homesickness and duty to family, but I dunno, maybe if the Mariners had made him THEE GUY when his first contract extension came up and paid him the kind of money that would’ve made him a lifetime Mariner, going to Ohio/Florida may have been delayed until retirement.
Same goes with Rodriguez, who was putting up the kind of power hitting numbers at shortstop that makes Sabr nerds go blind. Since Griffey was already there, it probably felt like the team would never be his like it was Griffey’s. Add in how the front office also never made him the type of offer that would make him THEE GUY and a lifetime Mariner, and it’s easy to see why he famously walked for the biggest pay day to date with the Rangers (who still sucked). Also, Rodriguez has stated that his massive contract and the pressure to deliver on expectations is why he did steroids, even though he had been killing it presumably PED-free his first 5 seasons with Seattle. The what-ifs of both these scenarios are enough to drive a Mariners fan insane and surely already has done so to many.
(Most of the above Alex Rodriguez lore comes from my own recollections and also the writings of erstwhile LL writer and local GOAT Amanda Lane, which can be found here, here, here, and here.)
So the objective answer is Alex Rodriguez. The subjective answer is Griffey because that split was truly heartbreaking to me as a kid. The wired big brain answer is that the Mariners should have found a way to pay both men their monies because then we’d already have 1-2 World Series championship banners hanging in the stadium. —Eric
I’ll echo Eric’s sentiments, too. I’ll only add that it was a little easier to rationalize away Griffey’s departure because he wanted to play closer to home while Rodriguez only wanted the biggest payday. And I think that’s the source of most of the animosity between the fans and A-Rod; he was selfish while Griffey left Seattle for more “wholesome” reasons (though still selfish in a way). It helped that Mike Cameron was an awesome center fielder in his own right and the Mariners didn’t get anything in return when Rodriguez left. But from a purely objective standpoint, Rodriguez left at a younger age and had an absolutely massive career post-Seattle. His departure hurt the team a lot more than Griffey’s. —Jake
Quick Hitters
1. Do you think giving a qualifying offer to Jorge Polanco is a good idea?
I’m a bit too late on this one, but I will give some quick thoughts about the Mariners decision not to give Polanco a qualifying offer: I thought it was a bit of a surprise. His offensive tweaks this year turned him into a potent hitter from both sides of the plate and he’s projected to produce a higher wOBA than Gleyber Torres. Of course, Torres got a qualifying offer from the Tigers, and even though he’s three years younger than Polanco, I think Torres and Polanco will end up signing pretty similar deals by average annual value this offseason. The qualifying offer, then, would have been a leverage play on the Mariners part to hopefully entice Polanco to re-sign on a two- or three-year deal. Ultimately, the risk of him accepting a one-year deal at $22m outweighed the possibility of a multi-year deal at a bit of a discount.
2. Which Mariner will have the biggest moment in the World Baseball Classic next year?
I love this question because the World Baseball Classic is absolutely one of my favorite events. Conventional wisdom would say Cal Raleigh or Julio Rodríguez blasting an absolutely massive bomb to win a game in the knockout rounds. Don’t overlook Andrés Muñoz or Randy Arozarena featuring for a Team Mexico that’s better than you think. Could Harry Ford repeat his 2023 breakout with another stellar performance for Team Great Britain? I think I’m going to go with Jurrangelo Cijntje, who could feature for Team Netherlands playing in what looks like a fairly easy Pool D.
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