Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Next up, a contact hitter who could change the dynamic of the Red Sox lineup.
Who is he and where does he come from?
He’s Luis Arraez. He’s the first player in MLB history to win three consecutive batting titles playing for three different teams (2022-2024). Most recently, he was with the Padres on a one-year deal to avoid arbitration after
playing in San Diego for most of 2024 . Before that, he was in Miami, where he recorded a seemingly unreal .354 batting average. The utility infielder, who turns 29 shortly after Opening Day 2026, spent the first portion of his career with Minnesota.
Is he any good?
Yes, just by virtue of his hit tool, though some other elements of his game downgrade this to a “yeah, he’s passable, I guess.”
Let’s list some recent batting average champions and hypothetically ask if they’re any good. Aaron Judge. Trea Turner. Bobby Witt Jr. Juan Soto. Had enough? And, yet, the answer to this question can be so polarizing in Arraez’s case. Arraez is awesome at extending innings, making pitchers work, and putting the ball in p[lay. He led the league in 2025 in lowest strikeout percentage, at 3.1%. The next lowest was Jacob Wilson, at 7.5%. That’s a big deal. He is generationally good as a contact hitter and at grinding out at-bats until he gets one that he likes and makes contact. But Arraez’s power is unheard of, having only reached 10 home runs once and ranking in the lower first percentile in barrel percentage and hard hit percentage in 2025.
I have long thought that the Red Sox need veterans in the infield to enhance the young talent on a team that leads the league in errors. Well, Arraez has the advantage of playing three infield positions (each of the bases) but he’s not particularly good at any of them. (Note that he also played shortstop and both outfield corners.) He primarily played first base last season and recorded just one error, a year that saw his much-heralded batting average dropping below .300 (.292) for just the second time in his career. But he ranked in the fourth percentile at outs above average and has consistently ranked near the very bottom of defensive runs saved. And of course, he was moved to first base in the first place because he’s just not quick enough to get after the ball, but the challenge of Arraez at first comes from his body not fitting the profile for the position at just 5’10”, 175 pounds. Just as Arraez can extend innings at the plate, he can certainly extend them with his glove, too.
TLDR: just give me his 2025 stats.
.292/.327/.392, 8 HR, 61 RBI, 21 strikeouts in 620 at bats
Why would he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
In 2025, the Red Sox made a change they hadn’t made since calling Jarren Duran up: Roman Anthony started the lion’s share of the games in the leadoff spot until his injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. This is important in Arraez’s case because Duran is a rumored name on the trade market. Arraez gives Alex Cora another option for the leadoff spot if he wants to bump Anthony down to get more out of his power. Though Arraez lacks the speed to turn singles into doubles like Duran, his contact bat is something the Red Sox haven’t really had in recent years and would give the lineup a different look.
Also, after a dip in the stats that have headlined his career production, it would be a surprise to see the infielder signed for any more than about $25-30 million for 2 years. For reference, he avoided arbitration with a $14 million deal with San Diego last year. That metric is music to John Henry’s ears. Also, he’s stayed healthy in his career, and while he’s had an ACL tear, it was while ago in the minors. More recently, it’s been a nagging thumb in 2024, and two concussions in pretty quick succession this past season.
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
It’s the fielding. As I stated before, Arraez is too small to be a legitimate first baseman, and the bigger incumbent, Triston Casas, would likely have to lose his job fair and square. He’s fine as a backup second baseman, but would be poor as the everyday guy. That leaves DH for the Red Sox and, given that Alex Bregman returning is no certainty, the Red Sox need more power. If that power isn’t coming from third base, it oughta come from the DH spot. Combine that with the fact that, as of now, the Red Sox already have the expensive Masataka Yoshida with nowhere else to play except DH, and it makes Arraez a clunky fit.
Show me a cool highlight.
Here’s the first cycle in Marlins history back in 2023.
Smash or pass?
If Yoshida is either somehow dealt and/or Alex Bregman is brought back (I don’t ask for much!), I’d smash for around that $15 million AAV mark. But, hey, it’s not my money. The Red Sox could use all the help they could get in making this lineup more dynamic. I can’t help but feel that perhaps the biggest appeal of Arraez over one of these “top tier” free agent first baseman/DH hybrids is the strikeout rate. Except, who am I kidding? It’s obviously the money. Still, I can’t imagine the Red Sox being okay with bringing in someone who’s been bounced from multiple infield positions regardless of how often he puts the bat on the ball. But not being a comfortable one-for-one fit for any holes on the roster keeps the three-time batting average champion squarely in the pass column.
