As the WNBA’s post-All-Star break action resumes, here’s a quick look at the league standings:
- Minnesota Lynx (22-6)
- Golden State Valkyries (19-8)
- Las Vegas Aces (18-8)
- Dallas Wings (18-9)
- Indiana Fever (17-10)
- Atlanta Dream (16-10)
- New York Liberty (15-12)
- Washington Mystics (14-12)
- Portland Fire (11-16)
- Toronto Tempo (10-16)
- Los Angeles Sparks (10-16)
- Phoenix Mercury (10-18)
- Chicago Sky (9-18)
- Connecticut Sun (7-20)
- Seattle Storm (6-23)
Might the playoff field already be set, with the top eight remaining the top eight from now until the regular season concludes on Thursday, Sept. 24?
Conversely, do one of the Portland Fire, Los Angeles Sparks or Toronto Tempo have a chance of infiltrating the top eight and sending the Washington Mystics, New York Liberty or another team out of the playoff field?
Over a month ago, Beckett Harrison analyzed
whether Washington, Portland, Toronto and Los Angeles should prioritize making the playoffs, or prioritize their positioning in the 2027 WNBA Draft lottery. His assessments have proven prescient, as he suggested the Fire, Tempo and Sparks were better off abandoning a playoff push and accepting their fates as lottery-bound teams.
Since then, all three teams’ winning percentages have dropped.
When Beckett wrote his article, the Tempo were the No. 8 seed at 9-9, the Sparks were the No. 10 seed at 8-9 and the Fire were the No. 11 seed at 8-10. Now, the Fire, at five game under .500, have leaped to the No. 9 seed, ahead of the Sparks and Tempo, with their matching six-games-under-.500 marks.
As Beckett noted, Portland has appeared rather clear-eyed about their circumstance, understanding the potentially greater pay off of a slower, steadier team build. Even as they sit closest to a playoff berth, the fact that no player averages more minutes per game than Bridget Carleton’s 30 minutes a night is indicative of the team’s big-picture perspective.
So, while Portland surely would be happy to take a game off the Las Vegas Aces as they resume their post-All-Star schedule (10 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass), it would be shocking if the Fire ultimately abandoned their principles in the pursuit of a premature postseason berth.
In contrast, LA and Toronto have maintained a postseason-or-bust approach, all while injuries provide an excuse for their poor pre-All-Star break play.
The Sparks already admitted to a modicum of defeat, dismissing general manager Raegan Pebley. Awaiting the return of Kelsey Plum, the Sparks skidded into the break with five-straight losses. Plum did individual work during LA’s first post-All-Star practice, a sign that her return, while not imminent, could be coming soon.
To not only snap their skid but also salvage a season that was expected to end the team’s five-year playoff drought, Los Angeles’ first post-All-Star game is a must-win (10 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass). LA already conjured a bit of magic to beat the Liberty in the first game between two of the WNBA’s 30-year originals. Another win would guarantee them the season series victory over New York, a necessity if the Sparks were to surge into an eight-seed battle with New York.
How does Los Angeles stack up against the other teams against which they could theoretically be fighting for a spot on the fringe of the playoff field?
They’re 1-0 against both Portland and Washington, and they hold a 2-1 advantage over the Phoenix Mercury with one game to go. That LA already has lost the season series to Toronto 1-2, a status stamped by Marina Mabrey’s 53 points, is a brutal blow to LA’s playoff chances.
Toronto, however, likewise is looks to be a playoff long shot. Losers of three-straight games heading into the break, they’ll have to change that momentum against the league-leading Minnesota Lynx, now with Napheesa Collier back in the lineup (8 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass).
And similar to the Sparks, the Tempo still have some time to wait until the return of their potential savior, as Brittney Sykes was limited to individual work in Toronto’s first post-All-Star practice. At the least, Kiki Rice appears close to resuming her rookie season, as she was a full participant in the Tempo’s practice. Rice, along with Isabelle Harrison (knee) and Nyara Sabally (rib), began Tuesday listed as “questionable” on Toronto’s injury report.
While Toronto has clinched the season series over LA, they’re currently not well-positioned to prevail in a battle for a playoff spot. They’ve lost all three matchups against Washington and are down 1-0 to Portland for the season.
Due to the priorities in Portland and the personnel problems in Los Angeles and Toronto, it seems like none of these teams will have enough steam to really threaten the current top eight.
But more than a lack of faith in these those teams, a confidence in the Washington Mystics is the biggest reason why the top eight could already be settled.
When assessing whether or not the Mystics should tank, Beckett concluded they shouldn’t, albeit mostly because of circumstance. As Washington has rights to swap first-round draft picks with the Chicago Sky, they’re in position to receive a lottery pick, regardless of their record.
At 8-8 when Beckett offered his analysis, Washington is now two games over .500, with their latest two wins—earned over the Golden State Valkyries and Aces—serving as proof of the team’s real progress.
Consistency remains elusive for the WNBA’s most youthful team, as those very good wins over Golden State and Las Vegas have been offset by some low-scoring stinkers. Yet, the heights Washington has reached when their exuberance translates into execution suggests they’re going to win enough games to hold onto the No. 8 seed—if not ascend even higher. (And yes, we’ll keep dreaming about an Elena Delle Donne comeback!)
The Mystics’ second-half journey begins against the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday night (7:30 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass).
What’s your assessment?
Is the eight-team playoff field essentially set, with all the second half drama limited to shifts up and down the standings between those eight teams? Or, will there be an interloper, with Portland, LA, Toronto or maybe even Phoenix vaulting into the top eight to replace Washington, New York or another team?
Give all your predictions and prognostications in the comments.
