I know that 6-3-1 isn’t the position that Green Bay Packers fans wanted to see the team in going into Week 12, but I do want to look at the NFC playoffs with sober eyes for maybe the first time all season.
Yes, the Packers are currently sitting in the seventh seed, but what does that even mean? Who is the team trying to nudge for playoff position? What do their postseason paths look like? Let’s take a look at who the real playoff contenders are in the conference.
According to NFL Pro, seven NFC teams have a playoff percentage of 72 percent or higher. There are only two more who have a playoff percentage of over 7 percent.
In short, we kind of know already who is going to make it into the playoffs. The gulf between teams gets wide very quickly.
The division I really want to focus on here is the NFC South, because they are sort of the key to understanding how the NFC race will play out. An NFC South team must make the postseason, by rule, even though the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually have a worse record (6-4) than the Packers at the moment.
NFL Pro gives Tampa an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs, the Carolina Panthers a 22 percent chance of advancing and the Atlanta Falcons just a 1 percent chance. The New Orleans Saints, along with the Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders and New York Giants — funny enough, three teams that the Packers have beaten this year — are already functionally eliminated from postseason contention in mid-November.
Why does this matter? Because in the 15 percent of simulations where Tampa doesn’t make the postseason, another NFC South team has to step in for them. That exhausts 15 percent of the combined 23 percent of times that the Panthers and Falcons make the playoffs in 2025, bringing down Carolina’s ability to impact the Packers’ postseason chances down the line, as they’ll be fighting for different things — in the Panthers’ case, mostly the NFC South title, and in the Packers’ case, either an NFC North title or a wildcard spot. In only 8 percent of simulations does a second NFC South team get into the playoffs as a wildcard. That’s really important to understand.
So the truth of the landscape right now is that there are really seven teams fighting for six spots, and then one team has to win the NFC South. Outside of those limited paths, there’s less than a 7 percent chance of any individual team in the NFL making the postseason as a wildcard team. That’s another really important thing to understand from a Packers perspective.
On paper, the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks all have over a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs. So you can really make the case that there are four teams (the 49ers, Detroit Lions, Packers and Chicago Bears) fighting for three open seats in this NFC game of musical chairs. Whichever team in this group does the worst down the stretch is likely to be left out, while the rest will advance.
Here are those teams’ remaining schedules:
San Francisco 49ers Remaining 2025 Schedule
- vs. Carolina Panthers
- @ Cleveland Browns
- bye
- vs. Tennessee Titans
- @ Indianapolis Colts
- vs. Chicago Bears
- vs. Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers should be able to build up a lead, potentially to a 10-4 record, before the schedule gets much harder for them in the final three weeks of the year.
Detroit Lions Remaining 2025 Schedule
- vs. New York Giants
- vs. Green Bay Packers
- vs. Dallas Cowboys
- @ Los Angeles Rams
- vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- @ Minnesota Vikings
- @ Chicago Bears
Depending on what you think about the Steelers, Vikings and Bears, the Lions might have the easiest remaining schedule of these four teams. They should be favored at home for four of their next five games.
Green Bay Packers Remaining 2025 Schedule
- vs. Minnesota Vikings
- @ Detroit Lions
- vs. Chicago Bears
- @ Denver Broncos
- @ Chicago Bears
- vs. Baltimore Ravens
- @ Minnesota Vikings
Outside of the games against the Vikings, the Packers are set to play four clubs in five games that all have division-winning aspirations at the moment. And they play them all in a row. Welcome to the hell stretch. It’s time to figure out what this team is made of.
Chicago Bears Remaining 2025 Schedule
- vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- @ Philadelphia Eagles
- @ Green Bay Packers
- vs. Cleveland Browns
- vs. Green Bay Packers
- @ San Francisco 49ers
- vs. Detroit Lions
Depending on whether Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend, the Bears’ schedule could be the toughest out of the bunch to end the year. The only real layup, if Rodgers is able to play quarterback, is the Cleveland Browns. Outside of that, the Bears are set to get six teams that are in position to credibly push for a divisional title in seven weeks of action.
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I don’t think anyone would have guessed it after Week 2, when it looked like the Packers were going to stroll to an NFC North title and Chicago was sitting at 0-2 following a 31-point loss to the Lions, but Green Bay’s best chance of making the postseason this year is to just make sure they finish better than the Bears down the stretch. As of now, that’s probably their best path into the postseason, unless the 49ers or Lions collapse down the stretch.
