The Yankees are on their way to Tampa after making quick work of the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series. It’s only fitting that their next hurdle takes the form of the team that edged them for the division title—just like last year. The Tampa Bay Rays own the Junior Circuit’s top regular season record and likely represent the Yankees’ most significant hurdle for returning to the World Series.
Unsurprisingly, the Yankees fed off terrific starting pitching to sweep Boston. Cam Schlittler continued his
superlative season (and his ownership of their arch rival) in Game 1, then Max Fried followed with an understated yet still stellar six innings of his own. But Aaron Boone’s club didn’t need to rely solely on the starters. In both games, the Yankee offense exploded in the latter half of the game to make the late innings as comfortable as a California King after a long day on the road.
With all that in mind, the Yankees are entering this tilt with the Rays looking like a well-oiled machine. They’ll need to keep it up to handle a pesky, modular, and cerebral Tampa Bay team that thrives on the margins.
On offense, this year’s Rays are not unlike the Blue Jays who ended the Bombers’ season in 2025, marking a departure from more power-focused, high-whiff lineups of past iterations. Like that Toronto team, they are extremely difficult to strike out—both their K rate and whiff rate were lowest in the league. They have plenty of contact-oriented bats: Yandy Díaz led the AL with 180 hits, and Chandler Simpson is the ultimate throwback, hitting over .300 with 46 steals and zero homers. Jonathan Aranda blends contact skills and pull power to right field. But they also have their own equivalent to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the heart of the order: All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero, whose 42 homers match the total Ben Rice put up this year. Their 104 team wRC+ was tied for fifth in MLB with the ALDS-bound White Sox.
As ever, the Rays’ pitching staff is loaded for bear—one of the few staffs that can compete with the Yankees. They throw tons of different looks at you, from the relentless top-down attack of ace Drew Rasmussen to the bouncy, crafty stylings of veteran Nick Martinez. Trade deadline addition Freddy Peralta is pitching like Freddy Peralta again, and they’ve got Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour as additional options.
For a five-game series, I anticipate Rasmussen (already listed as the Game 1 starter), Martinez, and Peralta in a three-man rotation, with Seymour as their designated long man out of the bullpen. Jax, who converted to starter this year after a fruitful stint in Minnesota’s bullpen, took a comebacker off his back in the penultimate game of the season. Indications from the team are that he’ll be good to go and could potentially reprise his late-inning role or be a “leverage guy.” Manager Kevin Cash demurred when asked for more details on his strategy—no surprise for a team that likes to keep their cards close to the chest.
Then there’s the bullpen, which could add Jax or Seymour to an already talented crew. Closer Bryan Baker, once an inconsistent middle-inning arm for Baltimore, has blossomed into an intimidating closer with triple-digit heat and a nasty changeup. Kevin Kelly has been among the league’s best setup men with a 2.44 ERA in 73.2 innings. Reports indicate that the Rays could welcome back Tyler Wells and Garrett Cleavinger, both of whom have missed time with injury. Add lefty Cam Booser to the mix, and you have a good idea of some of the arms the Yankees will see in the later innings.
The fruits of dispatching Boston early are borne in how the Yankees can set up their staff for this series. Gerrit Cole was the presumptive Game 3 starter for New York—he’ll likely start Game 1. There will then be a day between Game 1 and Game 2, giving an additional day of rest for Schlittler and Fried, who I expect to be deployed afterward. Since there will be a full four days between Game 1 and a hypothetical Game 4, the Yankees could start Cole again if they so choose and reserve Carlos Rodón for a piggyback role in case a starter can’t go deep.
The staggered scheduling of games promises to redound to the benefit of both pitching staffs, who likely won’t run their bullpens ragged with the first three games taking place across five days. As such, the focus in the series to me will be the lineups. Which team can snatch the initiative and give their pitchers a lead with which to work? Who can put up a crooked number—like the ones the Yankees pasted onto Boston—to dent opposing morale?
It’s with that question that we address the Aaron Judge of it all. Judge was vocal about his desire to play in the Wild Card Series, but ultimately was left off the roster. Instead, Giancarlo Stanton was given a spot, though he went unused. The full nature of Judge’s quad strain is still a little iffy, but bringing him back was wishful thinking against Boston, and I believe will be wishful thinking against Tampa, too. At any rate, this lineup has been clicking—which gives Boone every excuse to wait until they’re confident Judge can be his fully healthy self, rather than the limited version which probably couldn’t play the outfield as it stands. I expect the Yankees will not bring Judge onto the ALDS roster—and if they do, he will see limited playing time, if any.
For the best-of-three series with Boston, the Yankees got aggressive with their roster, constructing a super-bench and bringing only ten pitchers. With a best-of-five series on the horizon, the Yankees will probably add another arm or two, but I expect them to continue to carry a deep bench, especially if Judge remains sidelined. Boone was able to roll out two very different-looking lineups against Boston, and both produced. Just as the Rays thrive on changing things up and preventing their opponent from getting comfortable, the Yankees can and should continue to weaponize their depth in the same way.
Whose lineup is better? On paper, you can make a compelling argument for either side. One thing I’ll note, though, is the relative inexperience in the postseason for Tampa Bay as compared to the Yankees, who feature plenty of guys who have become postseason mainstays. Caminero has two postseason plate appearances in his career—Aranda has one. Richie Palacios and Victor Mesa Jr., two toolsy bats whom the Rays have relied upon for much of the latter half of the year, are playing October ball for the first time. Cedric Mullins appeared on two Orioles teams that combined to win zero postseason games.
The only hitter with an extensive October resumé is Díaz—who has a .561 OPS in 26 career playoff games. Past results don’t predict future outcomes, but we have seen plenty of teams with minimal collective postseason appearances flame out quickly. There will be lots of pressure on Tampa to prove they can hang.
One last thing: the last time New York faced Tampa in the postseason, they did so during the pandemic, in an absolutely vacant Petco Park in San Diego. This year, the series starts in Tropicana Field, where a healthy contingent of Yankee fans has always made their presence felt. This could undercut the Rays’ home-field advantage and give the Bombers an important energy source to siphon in the first two games. The Trop is not a beloved building in these pages, but if the Yankees can make it a second home field, the Rays will need to be that much more perfect.
For those reasons, I believe the Yankees will win this ALDS in four games. I think it could stand as another example of how participating in the Wild Card Series can help a team more than a first-round bye—provided they ace the test, which the Yankees did. From my perspective, New York’s pitching staff has more talent, and their lineup more experience. I think these factors will prevent us from seeing the complacent, often sluggish Yankees who bowed out early last October and were vanquished by the Dodgers in the previous Fall Classic. So long as they continue to cash in on their opportunities and mitigate mistakes, they’ll be able to unseat the AL’s top seed.
But you know what they say: you have to play the games. Game 1 of the Divsion Series is slated for Saturday, with coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. EST.
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