Second place is still a long shot but it could happen! It’s a fair question to ask, too. While there was a lot to be encouraged about from this last homestand when it comes to the Atlanta Braves finally and eventually breaking out of extended run of bad form, it’s clear that they’re not quite out of the funk just yet. The offense is back to hitting bombs and putting up crooked numbers but that’s coincided with the bullpen finally starting to show some cracks. Now granted, the bullpen is still in strong
form but you know it’s a bit wobbly when Raisel Iglesias finally blew a save.
All that has led to this point: The divisional lead is now down to three games in the final week of action before the All-Star break. While the Phillies have finally slowed down a bit from the furious pace that they have been on for a while now (and getting demolished in a three game series by the Royals is, um, something), they’ve still been one game better (5-5) than the Braves (4-6) over their past 10 games, so they’re still gaining ground. The Phillies have the Reds and Tigers to finish things off while the Braves have the Pirates and Cardinals. Atlanta will likely still be in first place by the time the break rolls around but they will certainly have to earn it in order to remain on top heading into the second half of the season.
July 7-9: Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Record: 46-45 Projected Record (via FanGraphs): 83-79
Well, the Braves can’t escape Paul Skenes this time! Hot off the heels of a wacky and wild ending to a four-game series against the Mets, the Braves will now have to take on Skenes in Pittsburgh with no rest for the weary after a late night in Atlanta. The good news is that, well, Skenes has hit the skids a bit. As this piece from Kiri Oler from FanGraphs notes, Skenes has a 5.36 ERA over his past nine starts and hasn’t exactly looked like the dominant force that helped propel him to the All-MLB First Team and an NL Cy Young Award as well.
Skenes gave up eight runs (seven earned) in his most recent start against the Phillies and that was after he gave up four runs in five innings to the Reds. His last really dominant performance was back on May 12 when he struck out 10 batters over eight shutout innings against the Rockies. Ever since then, he’s found it tough to navigate the waters and this could actually be an opportunity for a newly-resurgent Braves offense to continue moving in the right direction if Skenes continues to struggle.
Maybe seeing the Pirates again could be a tonic for the Braves since the last time these two locked horns, the Braves were busy dusting off a sweep at Pittsburgh’s expense. I’m very skeptical that we’ll see another sweep here and if we do, Atlanta’s pitching staff will have bounced back as well since the Pirates have actually been hitting the ball pretty well lately. Ever since the sweep in early-June, Pittsburgh has been hitting .285/.351/.482 at the plate with a 126 team wRC+ and a .362 team wOBA. Their offense essentially went in the opposite direction of Atlanta’s after that sweep and a lot of that has to do with guys like Bryan Reynolds, Nick Gonzales, Tyler Calihan and Endy Rodriguez going on a tear at the plate since then. Konnor Griffin has also been getting it done as well.
It’s not exactly encouraging considering how the pitching has fared lately but also, the Pirates won’t have a super-imposing run of starters going for this one either. On top of Paul Skenes struggling, Wednesday’s starter Jared Jones hasn’t been the model of consistency for Pittsburgh so far and the last time the Braves saw Mitch Keller, they bombed him for six runs over 4.2 innings. We could be in for some more high-scoring, topsy-turvy games based on how both teams have been performing as of late.
Tuesday, July 7 at 6:40 p.m. ET (BravesVision, GrayTV)
Wednesday, July 8 at 6:40 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Thursday, July 9 at 12:35 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
July 10-12: St. Louis Cardinals
Current Record: 47-41 Projected Record: 83-79
Similar to how the season series with the Giants ended up being structured, the Braves and the Cardinals are going to end up getting their hostilities out of the way over the course of a two-week span. Things didn’t go particularly well for the Braves against the Giants so hopefully things will be different for the Braves as they travel to St. Louis to finish their season series against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals may have been struggling before they ran into a Braves team that was struggling more than they were but it appears that they’ve shaken it off. St. Louis walked into Wrigley Field the day after putting 11 runs on the Braves and proceeded to drop 17 on the Cubs to open the series. They then won the series the next day as they put a screeching halt to the heater that the Cubs had been on (Chicago beat San Diego 23-3 they day before they got beat 17-1! The 2026 Cubs, man.). I am sure that Chip Caray had a hootin’-and-hollerin’ time throughout that Atlanta-Chicago road trip.
St. Louis is now in the midst of a five (5!) game series with the Brewers and one that could have St. Louis getting closer to their divisional rivals in the standings with the break ahead. The Cardinals did drop the first game and now a doubleheader awaits them on Tuesday, so we’ll see if they can get back into the swing of things in that series or if the Brewers can continue to hold them at bay.
Due to the demands of the five-game series (including the doubleheader today), St. Louis’s pitching schedule is all up in the air so it’s really tough to figure who’s going to be pitching this weekend against the Braves. Dustin May is an option for the weekend and he’ll surely be looking to get a measure of revenge for what happened to him on a muggy night in Atlanta. No matter who the Cardinals have pitching, it’ll be imperative for the Braves to figure out a way to keep Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt from tipping the scales. Nathan Church was also an absolute pain to deal with when the Braves were in Atlanta, so keeping that particular trio quiet will be conducive to any type of success that the Braves will hope to have to close out the first half of the season.
Friday, July 10 at 8:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV)
Saturday, July 11 at 7:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Sunday, July 12 at 2:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
