Mess vs. Mets Series Preview

Two teams. One direction.

When the season began, there were some high expectations for the New York Mets, which had been remade in the offseason by their allegedly awesome President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns. For one brief moment in time, it seemed as though things were going to work out okay. After taking 3 of 4 in San Francisco back in April, the Mets were 6-4. But then, Juan Soto hit the IL and along with some other bad play, the Mets went just 41-60 through July. It has been a disastrous

season.

In addition to the attendance loss, the Mets also have a different manager from the one who was leading the team in San Francisco back in May. Former Diamondback and one-time Met utility infielder Andy Green is now the manager.

When the season began, there were modest expectations for the San Francisco Giants, which was left largely untouched — basically, some flaps for wind resistance and some racing stripes — by their allegedly winning President of Baseball Operations, Buster Posey. There was never a brief moment in time when it seemed like things were going to turn around. The Giants haven’t won more than three games in a row all season.

Of course, Giants attendance is up and Tony Vitello is, unfortunately, staying put. Maybe that’s just credit to San Franciscans being generally more positive, less judgmental, and having lower expectations than New Yorkers.

Neither team came close to what was expected of them and both have played so badly that their futures are uncertain. For the true fans, both are just an offseason away from turning around their fortunes. But Mets fans have been saying that for decades now. Giants fans for a decade.

The Mets went 15-12 in August, though, so… maybe they’re setting themselves up to be better in 2027 (whenever that season actually begins)? For Giants fans, it’s about seeing which of the current players on the roster are able to play well enough to make themselves undeniable for the next roster and hoping that the farm system — which has famously been unable to produce quality talent for the MLB roster — can provide the next crop of mainstays.

The Mets are still in a better position than the Giants even in that respect, though, as the long summer of losing has still helped them figure out which of their young players are undeniable. 23-year old outfielder Carson Benge had a triple slash of .248/.312/.374 (.686) through his first 60 games of this season (234 PA), but has hit .300/.356/.454 (.810) since (320 PA / 74 G). He leads them team in wins above replacement (3.2 fWAR)!

24-year old catcher Francisco Alvarez has proven himself with another solid season. Brett Baty has affirmed himself as a utility player (78 wRC+, +0.3 fWAR) while Mark Vientos has probably played his way out of being in the team’s long-term plans (79 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR). Their youngish rotation fronted by 24-year olds righty Nolan McLean (3.0 fWAR in 27 starts) and lefty Zachary Thornton (0.9 fWAR in 11 starts) is off to a great start. The Mets have been middle of the pack all season in terms of their pitching (13.3 fWAR — 15th in MLB), but McClean, Thornton, and 27-year old Christian Scott (1.7 fWAR in 20 starts) have set them up to be even better in the future. They also have a solid bullpen (4.5 fWAR — 10th in MLB), helped in part by the recent move of Kodai Senga to the ‘pen (1.74 ERA in 10.1 IP since August 4th).

That group along with Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette seems like a pretty strong foundation for a successful baseball team. The Giants are hoping to find a similar crop of young players to go with Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames.

There’s, of course, Bryce Eldridge, who is playing so well that it’s clear he should’ve been on the Opening Day roster. Drew Gilbert has played himself into a backup outfielder role. Jonah Cox is making the case that he should be the starting centerfielder. Turner Hill is having a nice moment, and the Giants seem to be pretty set at catcher given their soup of Daniel Susac, Drew Cavanaugh, etc. Meanwhile, Grant McCray and Osleivis Basabe seem like they’ve played their way out of long-term consideration.

This weekend’s pitching matchups will feature what the Mets have figured out versus what the Giants are still hoping to make work. If you sent “Matt Wilkinson and Anthony Molina will be starting for the Giants in games 1 & 2” back to Opening Night, you’d have imagined the Giants’ season going as poorly as it has. At the same time, with so many players on the 60-day IL and a preposterous number of DFAs expected this offseason, every pitcher has the chance to make his case with every successful inning. Tugboat’s not going anywhere with his three options and Anthony Molina is probably in a good position as well (he has 2 options remaining) — but, figuring out who’s a reliever and who’s a starter might be something this final month of the season helps determine.

But make no mistake, this is a battle of two laundry piles and both teams are trying to figure out how to sort the stained clothes, find which clothes are clean, which need to be donated, and which need to be repurposed as cleaning rags or thrown away (although, you’re not supposed to throw out clothes, I think).

The Mets are slightly better off when compared to the Giants, but if history’s any guide, that usually doesn’t mean much. This weekend might not feature much in the way of enjoyable baseball, but we might reasonably expect some silliness.

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Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (58-83) at New York Mets (63-77)
Where: Citi Field | Flushing, New York
When: Friday at 4:10pm PT, Saturday at 1:10pm PT, Sunday at 10:40am PT
National broadcasts: None.

Projected starters
Friday: Matt Wilkinson (LHP 0-2, 4.63 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (RHP 10-8, 3.06 ERA)
Saturday: Anthony Molina (RHP 2-0, 3.77 ERA) vs. Zac Thornton (LHP 3-4, 2.93 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Christian Scott (RHP 4-4, 3.80 ERA)

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Prediction time

The Giants will not be swept.