The Syracuse Orange (3-6) head to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Hurricanes (6-2) on Saturday, November 8th at 3:30pm on ESPN. The ‘Canes have a win expectancy over 96% per ESPN, and are ~28 point
favorites over the Orange.
Miami is 16-8
lifetime over Syracuse, but the Orange currently have a one game winning streak going over The U after they knocked Miami out of the ACC Championship Game in 2024.The Doppler
Miami is currently 13th overall in Bill Connelly’s SP+, while Syracuse is 99th. Miami is 20th on offense, 15th on defense, and 13th in kicking. ‘Cuse is 92nd on offense, 95th on defense, and 35th in kicking.
The Hurricanes are 25th in FBS converting on 45% of their third downs and 46th in FBS on 4th down while converting only 60% of the time. Syracuse is 124th on 3rd down as they only convert 31% of the time and they’re 88th on 4th down converting only 48% of the time.
Defensively, Miami is 8th in the country on defending 3rd downs with opponents only converting 30% of the time. ‘Cuse is 59th in FBS while allowing offenses to convert 38% of the time.
Miami is currently 39th in FBS in turnover margin per game with +0.3 while Syracuse is 123rd with -1.0 TOM/G. The ‘Canes are 113th in penalty yards per game with 65 per contest while Syracuse is 55th with just under 52 per game.
In the kicking game Syracuse is 9-of-10 on FG’s and perfect on PAT’s. They’re good but not great in the return game, and have a solid punter.
The Film
The Film will be Syracuse vs. SMU because of the mutual opponent. But against UNC Joseph Filardi, the freshman walk-on lacrosse player, was the starting QB. It was ugly. Filardi went 4-of-18 for 2.2 yards per attempt with two fumbles and one lost. SU’s RB, Yasin Willis, did rush for 4.1 yards per carry even with no passing game. I expect Collins to start against Miami.
The Orange lost to the SMU Mustangs 31-18 back on October 4th. On money downs SMU went 6-of-14 while ‘Cuse went 8-of-21. Syracuse turned the ball over three times, all on interceptions while SMU threw one. Syracuse was flagged for 60 yards in penalties while SMU was only flagged for 15 of their own.
SMU missed one field goal, go figure; but still won, also go figure. Nothing stood out in the kick return or punt return game.
SYRACUSE OFFENSE
Against SMU, QB Rickie Collins averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt while throwing three INT’s and only one TD. Collins did rush for 5.7 yards per carry on the ground and one score, while being sacked twice by SMU.
The ‘Cuse run game was abysmal otherwise with Yasin Willis averaging only 2.7 yards per carry and the OL allowing five TFL’s.
Collins and the Orange do have some big play ability in them. Against SMU they hit six different skill guys with double-digit yards per catch and Johntay Cook caught their lone TD. SMU had seven PBU’s on the day.
Above– ‘Cuse loves the stiff arm and if Miami hasn’t been practicing ‘give arm, take arm’ I’m going to be ashamed of Corey Hetherman.
Above– the SU wildcat puts the SMU LB in a 2-way go. The inside hesitation opens the outside gap with two lead blockers for ‘Cuse. They pick up the 4th and 1.
Above– SMU’s LB jumps the quick hitch but does a Miami LB have this Football IQ in space? Will Wesley Bissainthe break on this ball? Aguirre and Toure don’t strike me as the type that can get it done.
Above– Keionte Scott is one guy that’s lived up to the portal hype. This is a Scott type play from SMU here, he beats an OT off the edge and cuts under him to make a TFL.
Above– ‘Cuse runs the Air Raid Switch concept. This forces the DB’s to either communicate a ‘switch’ call (banjo) in coverage or stay in man.
Above– If you’re beat by one step it’s really three. Just need a good deep ball thrown to you that doesn’t force you to stop and let the DB’s catch up.
Above– SU runs “6” and they take advantage of the deep safety there. He’s camped out on the hash so the WR splits the hash and numbers rather than run up the seam like usual on 6. It drops in over the dude you see camped and inside the S.
Above– Another stiff arm, this time from Collins, that winds up with a big play. I know they’re down 21 already but it’s good to see him still fighting, and again- give arm/take arm has to be in effect.
SYRACUSE DEFENSE
Kevin Jennings averaged 8.1 yards per attempt with four TD’s and one INT vs. Syracuse. He was still immobile at the time.
RB TJ Harden rushed for 4.2 yards per carry but the Mustangs only hit 2.7 as a team. Syracuse got to Jennings one time on a sack. The OL allowed nine tackles for loss against ‘Cuse, for reference Miami came away with six.
Jennings connected with five different receivers for double-digit yards per catch averages, six had explosive plays, and four different players caught a TD from Jennings.
LB David Omopariola may be worth keeping an eye on as he’ll fill the B-gap against Miami’s duo run concept. Omopariola had six solo tackles and three TFL’s on his own vs. SMU.
Above– SMU tries a jet sweep and the SU linebacker tracks the hell out of this thing. His eyes aren’t fooled and he’s going to scallup to the ball.
Above– The finish to the Jet Sweep above, the LB plays under the lead blocker and while tackling high does make the play. The Toney jet sweep has been figured out and good teams will stop it while bad teams can’t catch the dynamic playmaker.
Above- Y-Cross works here for SMU. I’m not sure why Miami has gone away from it to Toney unless the staff just feels like Beck can’t get the ball there. The WR runs over the LB and under the S to get open on the opposite numbers.
Above- ‘Cuse sees the OL split (much like on Miami’s Duo) and without a post-snap RPO to read off of and since Jennings can’t really run…
Above– …the ILB can rip into the open hole and make a play. Without Mark Fletcher Jr. this could be a long night for the Miami run game vs. Syracuse.
Above– Run enough shallow cross, drag and mesh and the whip out will work. SMU uses it and the ‘Cuse DB runs into his buddy after slipping a little. A nice natural pick from SMU that Miami needs to use.
Above- A shallow drag (deeper than a shallow cross, not quite the Y-Cross depth) was open for SMU. When does Miami get Elija Lofton the ball and when does he do something with it? Maybe this is the game
Above- Rhett Lashlee changed up the blocking scheme on his jet sweep out wide and had the WR come back to the ball and the TE rub off him to block the CB. The LB couldn’t beat them to the edge and he scores. Think of Toney getting this with a bigger WR blocking back for him.
Above- A play-action with the TE running a slide route is one that I like. SMU uses it here for a 1st down. Miami needs Lofton to get involved in these games and to get the backup OL off the field.
Above– Which Miami Hurricane has that “FU” mentality we see here? Sends one ‘Cuse defender on his back and another diving away. Fletcher is out so is it Marty Brown? Gerald Pringle?
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme over the summer to beat Syracuse was to watch out for ‘gunners.’ With Steve Angeli at QB I think ‘Cuse might’ve had a solid chance to throw the ball around on Miami’s back seven with guys like Toure, Thomas and Poyser looking lost every snap. Collins is another story.
1- Don’t allow the big play. Jennings was shot putting the ball around on Miami and the ‘Canes DB’s and LB’s looked lost in the sauce. Miami has to tighten that up before games with NCSU and Pitt. Collins can scramble around but ‘Cuse is terrible. Sack him, come away with INT’s, etc.
2- Get Beck back on track. Beck’s borderline suffering from dead arm it seems. He’s lost all zip on the ball and can’t hit guys in stride. Either Miami has to get Beck back on track or go with Emory Williams or Luke Nickel. I’m not even sure if Beck can get back on track with his arm issues right now.
3- Win the kicking game. This should be the game where we finally see something from Keelan Marion on KR. The preseason hype has all but faded away on the BYU transfer. He’s averaging two less yards per return than in ‘24, has failed to score, and caught a ball while going out of bounds that would’ve resulted in much better field position vs. SMU. Malachi Toney has been a wonderful addition to the PR team, Carter Davis has been excellent as well. It’s time for Marion to take one deep.
Prediction: Miami by 17. Miami might be a little confused on offense right now but the ’Canes defense will dominate the Orange. I can’t see Syracuse putting up more than 7 on Miami’s defense. Losing Fletcher really does hurt and the other guys need to step up in a full-time role instead of just being role players. If Collins plays QB it’s ~17, if it’s the lax bro it’s 28+.
