Over the last couple of years, one thing that has frustrated me with the Jets’ approach to offense has been their insistence on using Breece Hall as a do it all back.
Hall is a very talented player, but I think it’s clear that he isn’t a complete back. He is an explosive play threat on outside runs and is a capable receiver out of the backfield. When he is decisive and hits the hole hard, his size makes him tough to bring down. But he struggles to read blocks, which makes him inconsistent on zone
runs and sometimes leads him to play smaller than his 217 pound frame. (He also has a tendency to be caught from behind on breakaway runs, but that feels like nitpicking.)
With Hall out of the lineup in Week 4 against the Chicago Bears, Braelon Allen took over the lead running back role.
There wasn’t much that went right for the Jets offensively in that game, but Allen played some solid football. While there were no highlight reel runs, Allen ended the day with a very respectable 59 yards on 14 carries.
In many ways that has been the story of Braelon Allen’s young career. The 2024 fourth round pick out of Wisconsin has a career average per rushing attempt of 3.7 yards, which is underwhelming. Allen’s career long run is only 20 yards. But he pairs it with an above average success rate of 51.7% on runs.
(Success rate tells you what percentage of a running back’s carries end in gaining at least 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, at least 60% on second down, or a third or fourth down run resulting in a first down. It is a test of how frequently a running back keeps the offense on schedule.)
Against the Bears, Allen was steady if unspectacular. He posted a robust 57% success rate despite not breaking a run longer than 10 yards.
If the Jets passing game had shown more competence, Allen’s ability to keep the offense on schedule might have garnered more notice.
It’s difficult to completely judge a back with 143 rushing attempts over a three year career, but at this point it looks like Braelon Allen is an unflashy back who can grind out yardage for moderate gains.
There’s nothing wrong with that. I think a back like this does have some value, but you also would like to see some explosive plays in the run game.
In that game against Chicago, fellow 2024 day three pick Isaiah Davis did not receive a single carry. You might remember that Davis dealt with an injury in training camp, but he was active for the game. He got in for two plays on offense and 15 on special teams.
Where Davis might be particularly helpful is in adding a bit more juice to the Jets run game.
Again we are living in the world of small sample sizes for inexperienced players, but in 73 NFL carries, Davis has a success rate of 47.9%, a tick below average. Where he has thrived so far is in producing splash plays.
Of those 73 carries, 13 would be considered “explosive” runs of 10 yards or more. You might wonder whether a 17.8% explosive run rate is good. Well, Breece Hall is known as a big play threat in his own right. To this point in his career, Hall has an explosive run rate of 11.2%. Once again, sample sizes matter. Nobody should immediately declare that Isaiah Davis is a better big play threat than Breece Hall. It will be almost impossible for Davis to maintain that rate over the long haul unless the Jets secretly have one of the best big play runners in NFL history sitting on their bench.
Humility is important here. As their respective workloads increase, our perceptions of Allen’s and Davis’ skillsets could change dramatically.
But based on what we’ve seen so far, there’s a case to be made that they would be a duo that complements each other. Allen could be the reliable guy when you just need to grind out a few yards to keep the offense on schedule. Davis could go in when you need something more dynamic.
That’s if the Jets will ever give more than one running back a chance.
