Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 22 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX
- Spread: East Carolina (-2.5)
- Over/under: 62.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 1-1
- Last meeting: East Carolina 30, UTSA 20 — September 28, 2024
- Current streak: East Carolina, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Last time the East Carolina Pirates won a conference title, they were members of Conference USA in 2009. They’re currently in year 12 of American Conference membership, and this is the closest they’ve come to capturing that elusive conference championship, sitting at 5-1 in league play in November.
But beware of the Alamodome. No conference opponent has ever survived a matchup there since Jeff Traylor took over as UTSA’s head coach. Traylor is 24-0 against conference opponents in the venue, including
two Conference USA Championship Games in 2021 and 2022.
On paper, East Carolina is the favorite, but the Alamodome magic could put more wind in the sails of the Roadrunners on Saturday afternoon in San Antonio.
East Carolina Pirates outlook
East Carolina (7-3, 5-1 American) is now 12-4 since Blake Harrell took over as head coach. The Pirates are playing their best stretch of football in over a decade, and the fanbase got to celebrate accordingly last week, storming the field after ECU collected a signature crunch time victory over Memphis.
The Pirates likely need some assistance, but they’re still alive for a College Football Playoff spot. They have six victories of 14 or more points and two last-minute heartbreaking losses. But right now, they’re as dangerous as anyone in the American, generating four-consecutive victories with the offense averaging 41.3 points during the win streak.
East Carolina is 14th in the country in total offense. The Pirates always shined as a passing attack this year, but lately they’ve found their groove in the run game. Over 62 percent of London Montgomery’s rushing output transpired during this win streak, and he aims for his fifth-straight 80+ yard outburst Saturday in San Antonio.
Through the air, Katin Houser is one of 12 FBS quarterbacks with 2,800 passing yards. The difference between 2024 Houser and 2025 Houser is the current version mastered the efficiency attribute. He connects on 66.6 percent of passes and keeps the ball out of harm’s way, only tossing one interception on his last 172 attempts, dating back to September.
Houser’s arsenal of weapons includes Anthony Smith, Yannick Smith, Brock Spalding, and a pair of tight ends in Desirrio Riles and Jayvontay Conner. Anthony Smith headlines the group as a can’t-miss 6’3” deep threat, producing 51 receptions and 745 yards on the year. Yannick Smith left the last game due to injury and could return as another frequented option in the nation’s 17th-ranked passing game, but if not available, Payton Mangrum showcased the depth of this receiving corps with a spectacular game-winning grab last week.
ECU started the season as more of a defensive juggernaut than offensive threat, although that’s changed in recent weeks. The Pirates still field the nation’s 15th-ranked scoring defense, but they’ve allowed 320+ yards to four of their last five opponents, including Charlotte and Tulsa. ECU operates best against the run, permitting 3.6 yards per carry and checking in at fourth in the country in tackles for loss, with defensive tackle Zion Wilson (two sacks against Memphis) as the major player in the backfield. The team also recovers fumbles at one of the highest clips in the nation, scooping up eight in 10 games.
The secondary is where teams thrive more against the purple and gold, but ECU still offers impressive talent within that unit. Free safety Ja’Marley Riddle is the team leader in tackles (58), interceptions (2), and pass breakups (5). Still, ECU has only let up more than 27 points once this year, and that occurred against 9-1 BYU in a 34-13 home defeat.
UTSA Roadrunners outlook
UTSA (5-5, 3-3 American) is looking for its sixth-straight winning season in six years under head coach Jeff Traylor. For now, the Roadrunners are perfectly balanced at .500 across the board this season. But one area they rarely exude balance in, is their home vs. road performance. UTSA is fresh off just its second road win in 13 tries, defeating Charlotte 28-7 on the East Coast last week. But the Roadrunners are an unstoppable force in their beloved downtown stadium, still maintaining a perfect conference record inside the Alamodome under Traylor.
UTSA’s last Alamodome experience truly showcased the team’s potential, dominating a currently-ranked Tulane team 48-26 inside the building — just one of three Tulane conference losses since the start of 2022. That game proved the Roadrunners can compete with anybody in the league when quarterback Owen McCown is on fire and the defense is collecting stops and turnovers like it’s nobody’s business.
McCown is essential to UTSA’s success. The second-year starting quarterback’s magic number is 235 this year. When he fires for more passing yards, his Roadrunners are 4-0; yet, 1-5 otherwise. He is playing his best football as of late with two 300-yard clinics in his last three outings — including a 31-of-33, 370-yard, 4-touchdown performance vs. Tulane last time suiting up in the Alamodome.
UTSA is equipped with a wealth of capable receivers, and Devin McCuin leads the charge with 52 receptions for 567 yards and seven touchdowns, which all qualify for team-highs. AJ Wilson and David Amador II also earn plenty of usage, as do the tight ends Houston Thomas and Patrick Overmyer — allowing UTSA to thrive in varying personnel sets. When the Roadrunners do struggle in the passing game, it’s often the result of protection, as they are 4-0 when allowing zero sacks and 0-3 when surrendering at least three.
The run game was the focal point of the offense at the beginning of the year, as Robert Henry Jr. was among the FBS rushing leaders for a bulk of the year. After four-straight 140+ yard outings through September, teams started loading the box and finding ways to limit the explosive runner. Henry is currently 14th in rushing, sitting 17 yards away from consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. Although his production has dipped in recent weeks, the Roadrunners are finding some success through Will Henderson III, who racked up 185 yards on 19 handoffs at Charlotte last Saturday.
The UTSA defense has been quite inconsistent lately, allowing 55 points in two of its last five, while simultaneously holding two teams below 14 over that stretch. Those fluctuations are primarily based on caliber of opponent, but UTSA proved in the Tulane game it could stymie an American contender. Overall, the team ranks 84th in total defense and 111th in scoring defense, with explosive passing plays serving as its kryptonite.
The Roadrunners are adept at producing negative plays, with Jonathan Jones, Nnanna Anyanwu, and Kenny Ozowalu all generating at least six tackles for loss on the season. Another key defender at limiting the run is inside linebacker Shad Banks Jr., and the senior hopes to add to a loaded stat-line of 66 tackles, two interceptions, and two fumble recoveries against the Pirates.
Prediction
Alamodome UTSA is absolutely a thing, and a 24-0 home conference record over a 6-year stretch cannot be attained by a fluke. Just ask Tulane what happened when it visited San Antonio. Or last year’s Memphis team which finished ranked at 11-2.
Thus, East Carolina should prepare for one of its most difficult battles of the season. The Roadrunner offense is a different animal in that building, averaging north of 48 points per game, compared to 18.2 on the road. Thus, expect this one to unfold in more of a shootout fashion, with Owen McCown and Katin Houser dealing plenty of vertical shots to their deep receiving corps.
But the Pirates are playing their best football right now, and the extra firepower they possess defensively will come in handy in the fourth quarter. It will be Blake Harrell and this ECU team that break UTSA’s impressive Alamodome streak.
Prediction: East Carolina 35, UTSA 31
