After a breakout 2024 season, many fans viewed Luis Garcia Jr. as the second baseman of the future. He produced a 3 WAR season where his bat and glove performed at an above average level. Entering his age 25
season, the best still looked to be ahead for the long time Nats second baseman.
However, Garcia took a step back on both sides of the ball in 2025 in what was a disappointing year. For me, the biggest disappointment was his defense. In 2024, improved defense helped his value greatly. He posted 5 outs above average at second base despite being a poor defender previously.
That defense came back down to earth in 2025 though. Garcia put up -7 OAA, which really hurt his overall value. It is a big reason why his fWAR went from 3 to 0.7. In my eyes, it wasn’t mistakes that hurt Garcia, but a lack of range. He looked a step slower and could not get to balls he could in 2024.
There is actually some data that backs this theory up. In 2024, Garcia’s sprint speed was 27.2 feet per second, which was in the 45th percentile. However, in 2025 that number dropped to 26.5 feet per second, which is in the 25th percentile. That tells me that Garcia lost some of his athleticism and range.
The lack of athleticism was worrying for me. At just 25 years old, his twitch should not be fading like that. The fact the Nats gave him reps at first base is alarming for me. I like Garcia’s bat, but I don’t like it enough for him to be a first baseman.
On to Garcia’s bat, despite the regression this year, I still believe in him as a hitter. Sure, he has some frustrating at bats and can’t hit lefties at all, but he got very unlucky this year. His xwOBA of .348 was actually higher than it was last year. Garcia’s exit velocities, barrel rates, hard hit rates and strikeout rates all improved, but the overall numbers did not.
His overall OPS dropped from .762 to .701. The OPS against left handed pitching was abysmal at .445. However, he was still an asset against right handed pitching this year. Garcia is also one of the few guys on the team that can really handle high velocity fastballs. He has no problems getting to pitches in the upper 90’s or triple digits.
Despite the drop off in production offensively, I am confident he can get back to his 2024 levels with the bat. His poor approach limits the overall offensive upside, but I think he can still be a positive with the bat.
His overall approach actually did change a little bit. Garcia got a bit more pull happy this year. When you look at his spray chart, you see a lot more of his hits and especially homers going to right field. Garcia raised his air pull number from 9.4% to 15.5%. That 15.5% number is still below the 16.7% league average, but it is notable. None of his homers went to the opposite field this season.
While some people might attribute that to his downturn offensively, I don’t really see it. I just think he got unlucky. His BABIP went from .310 to an abnormally now .270. He can still hit, but can he do enough to justify having his good, not great bat in the lineup.
That is something Paul Toboni is going to need to decide on. The middle infield pairing of Abrams and Garcia was disastrous defensively. Frankly, it cost the Nationals a number of games this year. With Abrams being a core member of the team, it is a lot easier to move on from Garcia.
It would not surprise me if Garcia is shopped in the offseason. The Nats would not get a haul for him, but there should be some interest around the league. There will certainly be teams that believe in his bat. In the right situation, I think Garcia can be a very useful player. However, I am not sure if DC is the right situation for him. In a lineup with a ton of chase and poor defense, Garcia’s shortcomings really stand out.
Season Grade: C-/D+
