Shaedon Sharpe has yet to extend with the Portland Trail Blazers beyond his rookie-scale deal. The Canadian and his employer have until October 20 to come to terms, before he heads into restricted free agency next summer.
For those keeping up with the 2025 class of restricted free agents, it hasn’t been a particularly lucrative period for second-deal seekers. While leaguewide cap space will likely be a little frothier next offseason, the restrictions imposed by the current CBA appear to be making
it difficult for restricted free agents on the open market.
The standouts from Sharpe’s 2022 draft class (Paolo Banchero, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren) have already penned lucrative extensions with their respective clubs this summer. If a recent Jake Fischer report is to be believed, the Blazers have also offered Sharpe a figure that earns him more than $20 million a year.
The four-year, $90 million figure could be perceived as a little high or incredibly low, depending on your expectations of the former number seven overall pick. But there are a number of factors at play.
Let’s discuss.
Sharpe’s Worth
I can see reasons why both parties might have released the number to Fischer: Sharpe’s camp simply trying to communicate the figure as below what they’re willing to take, the Blazers trying to show the broader NBA community they’ve made a realistic offer while working to keep their cap sheet relatively clean.
If we’re going on production to date, Sharpe probably hasn’t earned the $90 million. Injuries and inconsistent production have left many torn on his place in the league. But rookie-scale extensions are a little trickier than other roster-building tools, with teams having to consider potential.
The 22-year-old has played 184 games over three seasons, averaging 14.3 points on 33.0 percent from three, 44.9 percent from the field, with 3.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 0.7 steals. Last season, among combo guards, he ranked a stellar 8th scoring at the rim and 11th in two-point percentage.
Unfortunately, Sharpe also ranked a paltry 72nd in three-point shooting, 71st above the break, and 66th from the corner. He was also 41st in points per shot attempt and 46th in effective field goal percentage. On the other side of the ball, the numbers weren’t much better. He ranked 71st in steals and 62nd in blocks.
Those are hardly numbers to get excited about. But again when evaluating his game, we have to consider trajectory. I’m never one to get too excited about training camp murmurs and isolated preseason performances but if Sharpe has put in the work over the summer and has markedly improved his worth this season, things can change.
As such, any extension signed this offseason is a gamble for both sides.
Sharpe’s Position
While teams might have a little more money to spend in 2026, the nature of the current NBA CBA means teams are less inclined to carelessly dole out fat contracts.
Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Quentin Grimes, and Cam Thomas waited through most of the summer to get their deals. Grimes and Thomas eventually took their Qualifying Offers. Giddey got the best deal of the quartet, signing an Anfernee Simons-level deal at four years and $100 million — still not massive bucks for a starting guard.
It’s also only $2.5 million a year more than Fischer’s report. Whether Sharpe is a better prospect than Giddey is an interesting argument. If we’re betting on potential and trying to remove as much bias as possible — don’t forget, I’m Australian — Sharpe still carries a higher ceiling thanks to his athleticism and scoring versatility.
But even if Sharpe has a breakout season this year, edging close to Most Improved Player and perhaps sniffing an All Star inclusion, he won’t get a max deal. He just doesn’t have a big enough body of work to warrant it and the Blazers, or any other franchise, would be seriously irresponsible in giving it to him.
Assuming the real offer is between the Fischer figure and something in the realm of four years, $110, things get a little more interesting for Sharpe. Locking in guaranteed money, even if it’s less than he would have hoped for, might still be the smartest option.
Portland’s Position
There are pros and cons from the Blazers’ side as well. Letting Sharpe get to restricted free agency gives them some flexibility next summer, holding both matching and Bird rights. They also get another year to observe his development, getting a better evaluation of his worth and paying him accordingly.
But if Sharpe legitimately stars, threatening for those individual honors, then he probably deserves to be paid a little closer to that Banchero-Williams-Holmgren level. Allowing him to get to restricted free agency also invites the possibility of an offer sheet from a team willing to pay more than the Blazers want to spend. Obviously, they would match but their ability to make further improvements to the roster is impacted if they’re forced into it.
If Sharpe underperforms or suffers through another injury-plagued campaign, they may be able to get him at something close to the four-year, $90 million figure suggested by Fischer.
Conversely, if the Blazers are able to lock him up before October 20th, they get a deal that still gives the front office room to move onward even if Sharpe doesn’t reach those lofty heights. If he explodes, they have a stunningly team-friendly deal on a player locked into the franchise’s future.
Conclusion
I’d argue both parties would be wise to get a deal done before October 20, but for different reasons. Sharpe gets guaranteed money and the chance to avoid the stress experienced by this year’s restricted free agents. The Blazers get the young Canadian locked in on a deal that looks good regardless of whether he stars or slumps.
Does it get done? It depends on whether Sharpe believes he can take his production to the next level next season. Unabashed confidence is great, but when push comes to shove Monday week, Sharpe might see guaranteed money and lock it in now. The number probably sits higher than what was disclosed by Fisher, but if it’s for anything more than four years, $110 million, the Blazers should probably let him play out the year.
