Every generation of Phillies fans has to have one of these, it seems.
Black Friday in 1977. Joe Carter in ‘93. Ryan Howard crumpled to the ground in 2011. And for this most recent era of great Phillies baseball, Orion Kerkering air-mailing a panic-induced to the backstop behind home plate.
Welcome to the club. Let’s compare scars.
Game 4’s 2-1, 11-inning loss to the Dodgers will live forever in Philadelphia sporting lore for all the wrong reasons. It capped off a torturous fourth straight postseason
in which the Phillies failed to win the World Series, ending an otherwise glorious season in the most horrific way possible. And now, this run that began with a surprise rocket ship ride to the Fall Classic in 2022 has officially reached a crossroads.
With a 2-8 record in their last 10 playoff games, it is inevitable that changes are coming this off-season. Yes, the Dodgers are the defending world champions and these were, perhaps, the two best teams in baseball battling it out over the past week in four taut contests that featured an incredible display of starting pitching and failures by the bullpen and offense in the biggest moments once again.
This wasn’t like last year, when the Phillies stumbled and splurted during the second half and played awful baseball in the NLDS against the Mets. And it wasn’t a choke job like the 2023 NLCS against Arizona. These Phillies played hard and pitched great, but just couldn’t make the timely defensive plays or get the big hits when it mattered most. It has been a theme of this lineup for the past three postseasons.
Dave Dombrowski can’t run it back. Everyone knows this. But how drastically do the Phils want to shake up a roster that won 96 games and boat-raced the NL East by 13 games in 2025? How much can he do?
The only change coming to the starting rotation is the likely departure of free agent Ranger Suarez, whose dazzling performance in Game 3 and solid regular season will almost certainly see him land a contract that will be difficult for the Phillies to match. One of this generation’s greatest postseason pitchers will almost certainly be somewhere else next year. But a rotation of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter will likely be very good next season.
The bullpen will return some of the same names, most notably closer Jhoan Duran, whose bases loaded walk in the bottom of the 7th in Game 4 was a back-breaker. Nevertheless, Duran is one of the game’s best closers, and the Phils are lucky to have him for another two seasons. Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks will return, too, and one would expect Orion Kerkering will be back, although what affect his defensive meltdown on Thursday will have on him remains to be seen.
Offensively, there will be changes.
Nick Castellanos has almost certainly played his final game in a Phillies uniform. The fates of Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are unclear, as both are free agents and will have suitors outside of Philadelphia. Bryce Harper has a full no-trade clause and isn’t going anywhere, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s officially a declining player, or if there is still a superstar in there somewhere. Trea Turner is signed through the end of the world, he’s also staying. These have been the team’s four biggest stars offensively, and all four of them struggled throughout the postseason outside of Game 3. It’s hard to imagine the offense looking a whole lot different if all four of those players are atop the lineup again in 2026, but is there really any other choice?
The Phils almost have to re-sign Schwarber. Even as a DH, 56-homer players don’t grow on trees. There is no replacement in place for Realmuto and no one better in free agency. The odds of Turner, Schwarber, Harper and Realmtuo coming back is very real.
That leaves the bottom of the lineup. One would think some combination of Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh and/or Bryson Stott could go. All are decent players who can get hot but also have major holes in their games. And what about free agent Harrison Bader? The Phils desperately missed him in the playoffs after a strained hamstring knocked him out of Game 1. Could he be the center fielder moving forward? Outfielder Justin Crawford and infielder Aidan Miller are waiting in the wings too, don’t forget. Will they be ready to make an impact next year? And can anyone else on the farm leap to the forefront?
But there’s more than just an on-field component to the need for changes. Psychologically, these past three postseason failures have to be taking its toll. How do they get past this? A significant change is needed, a different set of voices, an injection of energy, the introduction of people who haven’t come to expect that things are going to fall apart in the sport’s biggest moment.
None of this will be easy, but the task in front of Dombrowski is clear. The Phillies window to win a title hasn’t closed. The starting rotation is too good and too much money has been invested in this roster for the Phils to go away. They won’t. But this off-season will almost certainly more changes to the roster than the past two off-seasons when Dombrowski largely ran back the same core each time.
After another heartbreaking NLDS loss, the writing is on the wall. Changes are coming.
