The Wild Card Race
Every win against the Dodgers is cause to celebrate, from the perspective that the underdog winner against the odds, and from the perspective that every win is a step closer to the NL Wild card into the playoffs, where anything could happen.
The Dodgers can be beat. After the Red Sox swept the Dodgers (31 July to 2 August), Dave Roberts said, “…If you look at it unemotionally, they outplayed us. You know, they were hungrier….” Recent wins show that the Diamondbacks are intensely hungry to reach the playoffs.
And in July, the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in a 3-game series.
Will the Dodgers avenge their lost series in July, or will the Diamondbacks repeat with a second consecutive series win?
Let’s compare the teams.
The Obvious. Two points.
- The Dodgers are heavy favorites to reach and win the World Series. They added Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline. Their players are talented and their depth is outstanding.
- The Diamondbacks are intensely focusing on their mission to reach the playoffs. Although they are underdogs, they have real chances to win the series against the Dodgers.
The Subtle. Although the Diamondbacks have a well deserved reputation for excellent defense, one defensive metric agrees with that idea, and another defensive metric disagrees with that idea.
- Outs Above Average (OAA). Diamondbacks are better (32 vs 21). OAA emphasizes range to reach ball and play difficulty.
- Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Dodgers are better (53 vs 20). DRS has a broader range of skills because it includes arm strngth, double plays, and other facets.
The Difference That Matters. The Diamondbacks defense is better in right field (7 DRS vs negative 5 DRS). The reason for the defensive difference is that Corbin Carroll has 9 OAA while Kyle Tucker has negative 6 OAA. In addition, Corbin Carroll bats better (OPS+ of 121 vs 100).
Dodgers Player to Watch.
Barring any last minute changes, the Diamondbacks will not see the new Dodgers starting pitcher. How would their trade deadline acquisition, Tarik Skubal, fare if he pitched against the Diamondbacks?
In Skubal’s first start as a Dodger he lost, despite pitching a quality start. The Dodgers only scored one run in that game. For the season, the Dodgers have less runs scored per game than the Diamondbacks. Unless the Dodgers provide better run support, my view is that Skubal would not fare any better against the Diamondbacks.
Pitching Matchups.
The pitching matchups have not yet been announced. perhaps they will be as follows.
Friday, 6:40 PM MST.
Merrill Kelly vs Roki Sasaki. In July/August, Kelly had a better ERA (3.03 vs 4.00), while Sasaki had more quality starts (2 vs 1).
This matchup is slight advantage Diamondbacks.
Saturday, 5:10 PM MST.
Brandon Pfaadt vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Recently, each of these pitchers had a lot of quality starts (4 for Yamamoto and 3 for Pfaadt). However, in July/August, Pfaadt had a much better ERA (1.53 vs 3.00).
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Sunday, 1:10 PM MST.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Justin Wrobleski. In July/August, Rodriguez had a better ERA (4.19 vs 5.32), and he had more quality starts (4 vs 2).
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
