Coming off of a week that added even more chaos to the Mountain West standings, I decided to take a bit of a different approach to this week’s fan guide. Instead of previewing each game, we are going to take a look
at the seven teams that still have championship aspirations and what needs to happen for them to get one step closer to the championship game. I will eliminate teams once they get to three conference losses and will add teams if it seems someone can get in with three losses. Let’s take a quick look at the conference standings; then we will preview each team in alphabetical order.
Boise State (4-1)
San Diego State (4-1)
Hawaii (4-2)
Fresno State (3-2)
New Mexico (3-2)
UNLV (3-2)
Utah State (3-2)
San Jose State (2-3)
Wyoming (2-3)
Air Force (2-4)
Colorado State (1-4)
Nevada (1-5, eliminated)
Boise State
Mountain West record: 4-1
This week’s opponent: San Diego State
What needs to happen: The Broncos hold tiebreakers over New Mexico and UNLV and will play Utah State the final weekend. What needs to happen first is a win over San Diego State; this will put them in good position to make and host the championship game. A loss makes things far more complicated. The Broncos should also be pulling for UNLV over Utah State. This could help if Boise State loses to Utah State in the last week of the season. Wins by Wyoming over Fresno State (this would be the most helpful result since the Broncos lost to Fresno) and Colorado State over New Mexico would be helpful to create separation in the standings.
Fresno State
Mountain West record: 3-2
This week’s opponent: Wyoming
What needs to happen: Fresno State is probably done with another loss, but they have an excellent chance of playing for the championship if they win out. A previous loss to San Diego State means hosting is unlikely and they already hold the tiebreaker over Boise State, so they should be pulling for the Aztecs. They would be helped by a New Mexico loss (they don’t play this year, so tiebreakers could be complicated) and a UNLV loss (same scenario as New Mexico). They will need to beat Utah State next week, regardless, so pulling for Utah State over UNLV is important here.
Hawaii
Mountain West record: 4-2
This week’s opponent: Bye Week
What needs to happen: Hawaii has beaten Utah State and San Diego State. They have lost to Fresno State, so the Rainbow Warriors need Fresno State to drop one of their last three games. (This weekend would be helpful.) They also need San Diego State to lose a game (preferably to Boise State). The Rainbow Warriors would be helped by Utah State beating UNLV and Colorado State beating New Mexico. I think there is a pretty good chance if the Rainbow Warriors win their last two and the Aztecs drop a game.
New Mexico
Mountain West record: 3-2
This week’s opponent: Colorado State
What needs to happen: The Lobos have Colorado State, Air Force, and San Diego State remaining on their schedule. They will be favorites in the first two and the last one will be competitive. The Lobos will probably need Boise State to drop two to host, so they should be pulling for the Aztecs. Since they already have wins over Utah State and UNLV, the winner of that game is irrelevant. A Fresno State loss would be helpful since the two teams don’t play.
San Diego State
Mountain West record: 4-1
Next opponent: Boise State
What needs to happen: The Aztecs need a win badly. They are still in the hunt if they lose, but losses to both Hawaii and Boise State would make a tiebreaker really complicated. They don’t play UNLV or Utah State, so that game helps them either way. They’ve already beaten Fresno State, but a loss by the Bulldogs will eliminate one more potential tiebreaker. For the Aztecs, it is still pretty simple: win and keep controlling your own destiny.
UNLV
Mountain West record: 3-2
Next opponent: Utah State
What needs to happen: The Rebels take on the Aggies in what is essentially an elimination game. The next two weeks are huge for UNLV with games against Utah State and Hawaii being elimination games. The Rebels should be pulling for the Broncos to upset the Aztecs, since they won’t have the tiebreaker over Boise State and need the Aztecs to lose at least one more game. A Fresno State loss to Wyoming would also help to prevent another potentially awkward tiebreaker.
Utah State
Mountain West record: 3-2
Next opponent: UNLV
What needs to happen: As I stated above, this is an elimination game for both teams. The Aggies have the toughest schedule of any team on this list, as they play three of the teams on this list. If they win all three, their chances are great. They should be pulling for Boise State over San Diego State (they don’t play the Aztecs). They also need New Mexico to drop a game, so a Colorado State upset would be huge. With all of these factors working against them and two losses to teams on this list, I’d say the Aggies have the lowest odds of making the Mountain West Championship.
Which two teams do you think have the best chance of playing for the conference championship? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
