So… we meet again.
It isn’t my favorite set-up to have two years in a row the Guardians overcome a significant deficit to win the AL Central, only to meet their division rival in the playoffs a week later. But, here we are. Let’s hope the results are more to Cleveland’s favor this time around.
The White Sox won the season series 7-6, with 11 of those games decided by three or fewer runs and six by only one run. Two games went into extra innings. Expect this series to be hard-fought and likely go five
games.
For the season, the White Sox were 5th in MLB at 104 wRC+, the Guardians were 20th in MLB at 97 wRC+, the White Sox were 20th in MLB at -4.1 baserunning runs above average, the Guardians were eighth in baserunning runs above average at 5.2, the White Sox were 14th in Defense at -14.3, the Guardians were eighth in Defense at -7.3, the White Sox were 26th in starting pitchee ERA at 4.60 ERA (4.41 FIP), the Guardians were 9th in starting pitcher ERA at 3.93 (3.89 FIP), the White Sox had the eighth best bullpen ERA at 3.70 (4.10 FIP), and the Guardians had the sixth best bullpen ERA at 3.54 ERA (3.70 FIP).
From these overall numbers, I think it’s clear that if the Guardians can keep White Sox hitters remotely in check, they should have an advantage. But, that is, of course, a big “if” and a big “should.” Anything can happen in a short playoff series, especially one against a division rival with whom you are very familiar.
The Guardians will start Parker Messick in game one and Gavin Williams in game two. This will line Messick up to start in game four and Williams in game five. I suspect tbe team will go with Cantillo and an opener in game three, but we will have to wait and see. The White Sox will start reliever Hagen Smith and likely go to Davis Martin as the bulk guy after 2-3 innings in game one, then start Sean Burke in game two, and Anthony Kay in game three (they are fond of openers so there may be one for each game). It will be key for the Guardians to get to the White Sox starters/bulk guys for some runs because the Chicago bullpen is formidable.
Big Questions for the Series:
Rest or Reps?
The White Sox come into the series rolling after demolishing the Astros. Of course, doing so required them to put even more innings on their bullpen arms. Grant Taylor’s 86 innings are almost twice the number of innings he threw in 2024-2025 combined, Sean Newcomb threw 92 innings total last season and is now at 92 with the next out he gets and hadn’t thrown anywhere near that amount since 2018… there are reasons to think this wear and tear will eventually come to bear on a good Sox pen. Sean Burke’s 176 innings are by far a career high for him (as is also the case for Parker Messick, of course). Meanwhile, Cleveland has to be concerned about how they will have maintained their sharpness with 5-6 days off, as is always the case with MLB teams that secure the bye through the wildcard.
Who Fills Out the Circle of Trust?
This year has not been Hunter Gaddis’s best year and Tim Herrin has often struggled mightily to throw strikes. This leaves some significant questions in the back end of the Guardians’ bullpen. You have to feel good about Cade Smith and Erik Sabrowski, but you also need to be aware of overextending either pitcher/giving the White Sox too many looks at them in a short amount of time. Hunter Gaddis’s ability to rediscover the pitcher he has been from 2024-2025 and through the first half of September will be key for this team’s ability to survive the days ahead. Will Vogt be willing to give some high leverage reps to Daniel Espino, Foster Griffin, Slade Cecconi and even Tanner Bibee? Should he be willing? I think this is the biggest question mark for our Guards.
How Long Do You Ride Your Horses?
To go along with the previous question, already, much has been made of managers’ penchants for removing starters before they get to the “third-time-through-the-order-penalty.” TTTOP is a real thing and I think managers receive too much pushback for going to relievers when starters begin to lose their top-end stuff in a short playoff series… but because the Guardians’ bullpen is thin, I hope Vogt does everything in his power to allow Messick and Williams, if they are pitching well, to get through six innings. Even if they get tagged, fans should prepare to forgive Vogt because there is a decent possibility that Messick and Williams facing TTTOP is going to be preferable to Vogt’s fifth-sixth inning options out of the pen. Once we get to the seventh, however, Vogt should be willing to deploy Sabrowski and Smith with no hesitation (which one dependent on where they are in the White Sox batting order).
How Quickly Do You Seek the Platoon Advantage?
This question is already facing Vogt with the news that the White Sox are still, as expected, leaning on openers. Does Vogt respond by putting David Fry and potentially Rhys Hoskins in the lineup? Does he then lift both if Davis Martin comes in by the third inning and run the risk of exposing Nathaniel Lowe to some tough lefties late in the game with no bench help behind him? Vogt received a lot of criticism for early pinch-hitting against Detroit last playoffs, but, in my view, he had the opportunity to go for a knockout punch and decided to take the risk to get a lead. I think that’s always a justifiable decision… but import needs to rest on making sure your best hitters stay in the lineup as long as possible.
Which Team’s Young Players Are Ready for the Playoff Spotlight?
In what should set us up for some fun years ahead as AL Central fans (once MLB sorts their labor problems out), the Guardians are the tenth youngest team in MLB and the White Sox are the 15th youngest, with both teams being carried by the performances of rookies/2nd year players. That first taste of postseason baseball can be a shock to the system. How much does it help folks like Brayan Rocchio, Chase DeLauter and Angel Martinez to have some of that experience under their belts? How much does it help the players on the White Sox to have the Wildcard games behind them and the jitters that may have accompanied those contests?
Key Matchups:
Sean Burke vs. the Guardians’ hitters: Burke has a 1.04 ERA in 17 innings against Cleveland this season. Should that continue, then you’d expect the White Sox to steal game two in Cleveland, given that the off-days will allow Burke to start that day. The Guardians will have to find a way to steal a run or two off of Burke to give Gavin Williams a chance at finding them a win.
Cade Smith vs. the White Sox hitters: Smith has a 4.32 ERA/5.04 FIP against Chicago this season. It’s probably small sample size but I’m here to tell you that if anything like that continues to be a trend, the Guardians will be headed home in short order.
Jose Ramirez bounceback vs. Munetaka Murakami bounceback: Both Ramirez and Murakami had lengthy absences with injuries this season, through which their respective teams persevered. Both returned diminished versions of themselves… Jose put up a 111 wRC+ prior to his injury (with much better expected stats) and Murakami put up a 158 wRC+ prior to his injury. Upon their returns, Ramirez had a 66 wRC+ and Murakami had a 107 wRC+. If either one of them find themselves with some of that early season magic returning after some break/off-days, that could be a huge factor in their respective team advancing.
Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Jo Adell, Angel Martinez, David Fry and Austin Hedges vs. the White Sox Lefties: Adell has a 206 wRC+ vs. LHP with the Guardians, DeLauter 138, Martinez 129, Jose 128, Fry 120 since August 1st, and Hedges 114 overall. The White Sox are going to throw a lot of good lefties at the Guardians to attack their left-handed-hitting heavy roster. If these six show something like what they’ve done in 2026 against southpaws, I like Cleveland’s chances to head to the ALCS.
Randal Grichuk vs. Guardians’ LHP: Grichuk put up a 204 wRC+ vs. Guardians’ left-handed pitchers this season. To which my response is… “That low?” The Guardians seemingly chose to keep Stuart Fairchild over going out and getting Grichuk when he was available in-season. Will that decision come back to haunt them in the playoffs as it did during the regular season? If so, the White Sox will get their revenge.
The Guardians will win this series if…
Messick and Williams are the best versions of themselves, Gaddis and Herrin are not disasters, and Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan and Angel Martinez remain three of the best hitters in MLB as they have been for the second half of the 2026 season. For once, I don’t think the Guardians HAVE to have the best version of Jose to advance… which is nice… but good Jose would also go a long way to help.
The White Sox will win this series if...
Burke and their relief pitching hold up to their tremendous usage rates and they continue to find magical moments from folks like Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Tristan Peters (18-pitch-AB against Gavin Williams, yo), and Chase Meidroth.
The Schedule for the ALDS between the Guardians and White Sox (TBS/TruTV and HBOMax):
Saturday, October 3rd – 1PM ET
Monday, October 5th – 5PM ET
Wednesday, October 7th – 4PM ET
Thursday, October 8th – 5PM ET (if the only game that day it will be moved to 8pm) *if necessary
Saturday, October 10th – 5PM ET (if the only game that day it will be moved to 8pm) *if necessary
Glossary: Remember that wRC+ is a comprehensive measure of run production in which 100 is league average. Defense is FanGraphs’ calculation of wins above replacement level at defensive predictions.
FIP is ERA if you remove the effects of the defense behind a pitcher.
What are we thinking, Guardians fans? How do you see this series shaking out and what are your keys for a Cleveland victory?
