On May 3, 2025, Anthony Volpe’s luck took a turn for the worse. That day, he hurt his left shoulder while diving for a ball in the performance of his defensive duties. He felt a pop that turned out to be a torn labrum, re-aggravating the injury in September and managing the discomfort while playing.
Volpe received cortisone shots in June and September. After putting up a 115 wRC+ since the first day of the season until May 3rd, he finished with a highly disappointing 83 mark for the year, adding 19
homers and 18 stolen bases. Even his defense, which earned him a Gold Glove in 2023, suffered in the process. He underwent surgery to repair his torn labrum in October and is likely to miss the entire first month of the season at the very least. Can he become an offensive threat in 2026, or is his time in the Bronx coming to an end?
2025 statistics: 153 games, 596 PA, .212/.272/.391, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 83 wRC+, 7.2 BB%, 25.2 K%, 2 Defensive Runs Saved, -7 Outs Above Average, 1.0 fWAR
2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts projections: 109 games, 469 PA, .228/.293/.391, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 91 wRC+, 7.8 BB%, 23.9 K%, 1.9 fWAR
While saying that Volpe’s presence in the Yankees’ future plans is in jeopardy if he doesn’t perform would be premature, it’s clear that he will have a lot to prove this year when he returns, and it might not be entirely fair to expect immediate results after such a major surgery. And if he fails to bounce back, the Bombers might start seeking other alternatives; that’s the truth. The Bronx rarely waits for anyone.
The reality is that, injury or not, the former first-rounder is running out of time. He has failed to return even league-average offensive production in any of his three seasons in The Show, as his career-high wRC+ was 87 in 2024. His excellent defense used to make up for the lack of offensive consistency and on-base ability, but that also evaporated last year, presumably affected by the bum shoulder.
José Caballero prepares to enter the 2026 campaign as the shortstop, having focused his offseason training on improving his bat speed. On the other hand, Volpe started his hitting program by taking dry swings in mid-February. He is significantly behind his counterpart, but right on schedule according to the team’s estimates. Volpe will likely need a lot of at-bats to even approach his top form. The question here is how long the Yankees are willing to wait for him to regain full health or even approach a point at which he can fully trust his shoulder.
A healthy version of Volpe is a much better defender than what he showed last year, but we are not so sure if it’s a big upgrade offensively over his 2025 self. He is still young, though, and has a lot of room to grow and improve. He is, after all, just 24, younger than some of the highest-profile prospects in the game. Volpe does contribute some power and speed, but it will all come down to contact and plate discipline. There are some encouraging signs, though.
For a hitter who ranked in the 76th percentile in chase rate per Baseball Savant, he should be able to rank higher than the 36th percentile in walk rate. He is also in the 64th percentile in barrel rate. With some work, a sound gameplan, and a bit of luck, Volpe can take off if he’s fully healthy. Labrum surgery is no joke, though: ask Miguel Andújar, who needed five years to have an above-average offensive season over a significant sample after going under the knife in 2019.
That’s not to say that Volpe is necessarily doomed just because Andújar had a hard time returning to top form, but it’s a perfect example of how things can go south with labrum tears. It’s impossible to remove his current health status from any 2026 analysis. As a counterpoint to Andújar, there is Fernando Tatis Jr.: after undergoing labrum surgery in 2022, his performance diminished for one year (111 wRC+ in 2023 after three campaigns over 150) before settling in the 130 range in 2024 and 2025. Volpe clearly doesn’t have the sky-high ceiling that Tatis does, but he exists as a data point for pure injury recovery nonetheless.
The shoulder issues aren’t a death sentence for Volpe. However, combined with the urgency of playing for the Yankees, their perennial need for immediate results, and three disappointing seasons with the bat, they could definitely complicate things in 2026 and beyond.
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