For Gavin Williams, 2026 will be the year he established himself as an ace. What will 2027 bring for him and the Guardians?
Between the regular season and postseason, Williams threw over 200 innings in 2026, striking out 281 batters. For the regular season, he had a 3.76 ERA and a 3.45 FIP… however, he often FELT like his 2.85 xERA due to his ability to get swing and miss. In the playoffs, Williams had a 2.16 ERA and an 0.40 FIP… striking out nearly EIGHTEEN batters per 9. Did you catch that? He was
averaging two strikeouts per inning pitched. He came to play when it matters most and dragged the Guardians to within two wins of the World Series. He also was, apparently, dealing with shoulder soreness at the end of the season, so let’s hope that resolved quickly.
The big change for Williams was getting a fastball that had been reliably negative in run value to +9.9 in run value last season. He managed this feat by cutting the amount of times he threw it by 10% from 2025, making it a pitch he threw only 27% of the time. I would guess this helped him increase its average speed by a full mph up to 97.6. He added a knuckle-curve which he threw 22% of the time, decreased his use of the cutter by 8% and made his sweeper one of the deadliest out-pitches in baseball at 9.5 runs above average by increasing its horizontal break by 1.3 inches from the prior season. When looking at Williams’ numbers, it’s clear that Gavin, the pitching staff and the catchers maximized his pitch mix very effectively to make his four-seamer a weapon instead of a liability, which made all the difference in the world.
Rob Friedman of Pitching Ninja breaks down why Gavin’s slider is such an issue for hitters below:
Let’s not forget how dominant Williams was in the playoffs:
Williams is 27 years old and under team control through 2029. In my happiest dreams, David Blitzer takes over and becomes Scott Boras’s best friend and extends Williams to play another seven years for the Guardians. But, we know that we need to instead embrace the Paul Dolan mantra of “Enjoy him.” We can hope for two more playoff runs with Gavin and then look for an offseason trade before the 2029 season, or a trade mid-2029 if that season goes awry. I not only enjoy watching Gavin pitch, but I love his demeanor on and off the field, the unbothered-yet-super-competitive North Carolinan way he has about him. I expect his performance to only improve as he continues to refine his pitch mix and use the new knuckle-curve that graded out well. If he can stay healthy, Williams may be the most important player on the Guardians for the next two years.
