Recent history will point you in the correct direction if you’re wondering how certain NFL games will go. For example, the Washington Commanders are coming off a game they should have won against a divisional foe. Those contests can take an emotional toll.
Since 2022, Washington has won only once the week after playing the New York Giants. Six of those losses were by at least a touchdown.
Conversely, the 49ers have won eight of their previous nine games against the NFC East, with the one loss carrying
the biggest asterisk, the 2022 NFC Championship Game. The Niners have dominated the division, even when they were undermanned.
It’s hard to envision something changing in the final game of Week 6. The Commanders are allowing 29.8 points per game, a point less than what the 49ers are scoring. Let’s get into the preview: we expect the Commanders to land a few punches, but the Niners’ haymakers to overcome Washington.
The 49ers’ surprisingly stout run defense
The Commanders rank 12th in EPA per rush and 19th in rushing success rate this season. They rank middle of the pack in yards after contact but fourth in yards before contact per attempt, a sign their scheme is sound.
They’ll be without their leading rusher, Bill Croskey-Merritt. He has double the carries of any running back on the roster. The only other player with a double-digit run this season is Rachaad White. The last time White rushed for over 70 yards was in December 2024. Collectively, even with Croskey-Merritt, the running backs have a 37.6% success rate and are averaging -0.159 EPA per carry.
Jayden Daniels’ legs uplift a pedestrian rushing attack. Daniels ran for 103 yards against the Giants last week and 69 yards against Dallas in Week 2. The objective will be to rush Daniels with integrity and keep him in the pocket.
The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest scramble yards in the NFL. They also run zone coverage 83% of the time, the fourth-highest clip in the league. Dallas and Washington are top-10 in man coverage usage, which explains Daniels’ success on the ground.
Daniels is an excellent runner. He has the second-most scramble yards this season and is averaging an incredible 12.6 yards per carry on those runs. He has generated nine explosive runs, tied with Josh Allen for the most in the league.
However, the Niners have faced only five scrambles, the fewest in the league. They are limiting quarterbacks to 5.6 yards per carry, the sixth-lowest mark. They did keep Malik Willis in check against Miami.
The Niners lead the NFL in explosive rush rate and rush rate over expectation. It’s not in their DNA to allow the big play.
The biggest surprise for the 49ers this season is their run defense. They boast a 41.5% rushing success rate, five percentage points better than their first five games a season ago. That’s also good enough for sixth in the NFL. The Niners are also sixth in EPA per rush. Whether it’s on a down-to-down basis or limiting explosive plays, Raheem Morris’s scheme is getting the job done.
Morris’s 5-down fronts take away the B-gap bubble and keep Fred Warner clean. As you can see from the picture below, Morris has consistently put two defenders on one guard — in this case, the right guard — which has led to chaos in the backfield:
Jaden Dugger gets the spot start with Dre Greenlaw suspended. Dugger was relentless against the Seahawks last week. If that aggression and discipline carry over into Monday night, Washington could abandon the run entirely.
San Francisco should make Washington one-dimensional. But is that a good thing?
49ers X-factor: Mykel Williams played 22 snaps in his first game back. Seattle averaged 3.18 yards per play with Williams on the field. Williams’ edge-setting prowess will be needed against a Commanders offense that runs outside zone at the third-highest percentage in the NFL.
Is the 49ers secondary in for a shock?
Kyle Shanahan spoke glowingly about Daniels last week:
“Since he came in the league until now, Jayden’s got a chance to be one of the better quarterbacks in this league without a doubt. If you take away the running element of him, just how he plays in the pocket is so natural with how accurate he is, how strong his arm is, how poised he is going through a progression, how fearless he is hanging in there and taking a hit, keeping his eyes down the field. When you take that out, how scary he is just running the ball. He’s got the speed and the coordination to win games only with his legs, which means you want to keep him in the pocket and not let him out because he can beat you with his legs. However, he’s a very scary quarterback in the pocket just playing the position. So, he’s got all the tools to be as good as there is.”
Daniels is everything you want in a quarterback when you take him No. 1 overall. He’s unquestionably the most talented quarterback the Niners will have faced this season.
Daniels has generated more EPA than Matthew Stafford despite playing 235 fewer snaps. He’s one of the league’s most aggressive quarterbacks. Daniels is throwing deep on nearly 16% of his passes, the third-highest mark in the NFL. The 49ers secondary will be tested in ways it hasn’t been against Daniels.
Daniels has the arm talent to throw the ball on a line over the intermediate portion of the field and zip it in between linebackers, or loft it 30 yards downfield and drop it into a bucket. He can make all those throws and is willing to sacrifice his body to take a big hit.
The combination of those traits is what makes Daniels an enigma. I’m more inclined to believe Washington’s shortcomings are more about Daniels’ surroundings than the quarterback himself.
When he is in the lineup, his go-to targets have been Antonio Williams, Terry McLaurin, and Stefon Diggs, who missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury, but practiced on Friday.
McLaurin runs 77.3% of his routes on the outside and has caught only 53.8% of his targets. With the way Morris has structured his defense, the McLaurin’s of the world are rarely targeted. He’s the kind of wideout who Deommodore Lenoir should match up well against.
Diggs has the highest target share of the trio. He has 15 targets in two games with Daniels for nine receptions and three touchdowns. He moves around the formation the most, with 39% of his routes coming outside compared to 59% in the slot. You’d like to see the Niners be aggressive with Diggs and sit on his routes, especially with a hamstring injury.
Commanders X-factor: The rookie is who could give the Niners the most fits. He’s speedy, and the kind of wideout who is used to run away from coverage. Williams’ best game came against Vic Fangio in Week 1, where he had a 33-yarder. Williams against Upton Stout or the safeties could be advantage Washington. It feels like a game where Daniels forces the Niners nickel/safeties to cover.
The Commanders may hit an explosive with McLaurin or Williams. But the Niners have the fifth-best passing success rate. Limiting the body blows and keeping Washington in longer down and distances should eventually win out.
The Niners are content with letting offenses dink and dunk their way down the field. No defense allows more targets and receiving yards to running backs. If it’s a game where Rachaad White has 6 receptions for 60 yards, then so bet it. It beats the alternative of McLaurin or Williams beating you over the top.
Daniels has been pressured on over 45% of his dropbacks. Washington has used a couple of different lineups with Nick Allegretti rotating between center and right guard. Keion White, Osa Odighizuwa, and Gracen Halton causing interior disruption can go a long way in getting the Commanders off the field.
The Christian McCaffrey overcorrection
It’s easy to wonder why Christian McCaffrey wasn’t involved in hindsight looking back at Week 5, especially considering how successful the plays were when he ran the ball. But Kyle Shanahan faced Seattle three times a year ago and his offensive line was pushed around and gave McCaffrey little to no yards.
The Commanders are league average in EPA per rush allowed, but 27th in rushing success rate. McCaffrey, with an extra day, should be fresh. They’ve been stingy at defending outsize zone.
Washington has allowed 2.81 yards per carry, with a -0.39 EPA per rush and a success rate of 36.1%. Outside zone is still the predominant run for the 49ers at 40%, but they’ve incorporated inside zone more than ever (20% of the time) and man concepts to keep defenses off balance.
Those inside runs will come in handy against a Commanders defense that has allowed six, yes, six yards per carry against inside zone. They’ve also allowed an EPA per rush of +0.115 on man concepts. So, plenty of McCaffrey with a sprinkle of Kaelon Black should keep the Niners in managable passing situations for their quarterback who can expect a blitz-heavy evening.
49ers X-factor: People are also forgetting the recipe that has ignited the running game this year was missing a key ingredient. Kyle Juszczyk is expected to return, which means the running game should.
Brock against the blitz
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said, “My guess is we will see Mike Evans tonight” on the Pat McAfee show. The 49ers will see how Evans looks pre-game, but there is optimism that he plays. How much Evans is involved in the offense is a different discussion. He already had a rib injury, and Achilles soreness popped up late last week.
Evans is coming off a season-high 113 yards. It’s a favorable matchup, as Washington is 29th in the NFL at allowing receiving yards and targets to wide receivers. But, especially with a short week coming up, you’d think it’s not a game where Evans is heavily involved.
So where will Brock Purdy look to against a defense that blitzes 45% of the time? Let’s clear some things up here. The Commanders blitzing basically every other down shouldn’t be conflated with their ability to bring down the quarterback. Washington’s 25th in sack percentage this year. Purdy has been tremendous at manuevering in the pocket and running out of sacks all season.
They are 26th in passing success rate allowed and 23rd in EPA per pass. Last week, the 49ers were planting seeds in an offense that could be centered around George Kittle. I think we see that come to fruition on Monday night.
No team allows more touchdowns to tight ends than Washington. They also allow the most red zone touchdowns to the position. Isaiah Likely had 11 receptions on 13 targets last week. Washington is bottom three in receptions, targets, and pass rate over expectation against tight ends. Funneling targets to the middle of the field against a Kyle Shanahan offense is problematic, to say the least. It’s especially bad when you’re allowing the sixth-most yards after the catch to tight ends.
After a low-usage game against Seattle paired with the injury to Evans and all of the other injuries at the position, Week 6 has the makings of a classic Kittle game in primetime.
If you’re worried about Purdy holding up against the blitz, fret not. He’s completed 28 of his 40 attempts for 10.9 yards per attempt. He has eight touchdowns compared to one interception. Purdy knows the offense inside and out, and has a knack for replacing the blitzer and hunting big plays. He fights pressure with pressure, and that’s one of his many MVP traits he possesses.
Washington has depth along the defensive line, and a handful of players with a double-digit pressure percentage, but this game should prove that sacks are the ultimate measure because you can still complete a pass if you’re pressured.
The offense left yards on the table last week. Washington gives up the most second half points in the NFL. This game could be one of those where San Francisco takes it out on their opponent and where they lack at after a poor showing offensively a week ago.
Commanders X-factor: Rookie Sonny Styles will find himself in the middle of the action tonight with how the Niners operate. They’ll run right at him, use eye candy to get Styles out of position in coverage, and prey on the rookie who faces his toughest test and matchup to date.
49ers 34, Washington 21.
