As we gear up for the last game of the regular season, the Yankees remain tied for first place in the AL East with the critical tiebreaker leaning towards the Blue Jays. Unless they defeat the Orioles
tonight while the Blue Jays fall to the Rays, New York will open their postseason at home on Tuesday for a best-of-three Wild Card Series. Given that likelihood, the Yankees will need to assemble their 26-man roster strategically for what will be a sprint, not a marathon. Based on what we know now, let’s take a stab at projecting their likely squad for what comes next.
Starting Lineup
C: Austin Wells
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
SS: Anthony Volpe
3B: Ryan McMahon
LF: Cody Bellinger
CF: Trent Grisham
RF: Aaron Judge
DH: Giancarlo Stanton
The Yankees’ starting outfield is locked in, with Opening Day starter Jasson Domínguez moving to the bench as Trent Grisham has earned an everyday role. Giancarlo Stanton has the designated hitter spot nailed down, while Jazz Chisholm is the plug-and-play second baseman.
The rest of the starting lineup is less set in stone. While Austin Wells has been the Yankees’ primary catcher for nearly the entire season, Ben Rice has eaten into his playing time down the stretch. This included his first pairing with ace Max Fried Wednesday, a move that may be designed to increase Aaron Boone’s options in October. When not behind the dish, Rice is also likely to split time at first with Paul Goldschmidt, taking advantage of their lefty/righty split. I’ve got Rice the odd man out on paper, but consider he, Goldschmidt, and Wells a three-man platoon.
Anthony Volpe will get an opportunity to man shortstop, though, as we’ve seen before, expect Boone to push the José Caballero button if he struggles. And, at third, Ryan McMahon’s defensive pedigree gives him the edge, though he could cede some starts against lefties.
Bench
Ben Rice
José Caballero
Amed Rosario
Jasson Domínguez
J.C. Escarra
In addition to whichever of Goldschmidt, Rice, or Wells gets a given day off, the Yankees will feature a bench replete with late-game utility. Caballero will end up leading all of MLB in steals this season, and his athleticism and defensive flexibility will make him a weapon off the bench. Amed Rosario is a bona fide lefty masher and should get opportunities to show it, either as a pinch-hitter late in games or occasionally spelling McMahon against a tough southpaw. And Domínguez, despite a disappointing season and suspect defense, brings value as a pinch-hitter against righties and another speed option off the bench. I also have the Yankees carrying J.C. Escarra, their backup catcher for most of the year who was sent down at the Trade Deadline with the Yankees making the decision to employ Rice as a part-time catcher and beef up their bench via trade. Carrying Escarra will allow Boone to be more aggressive in deploying Rice or Wells off the bench (or burning Wells by pinch-hitting for him).
This projection leaves Austin Slater as the odd man out from the current active roster. After getting injured in his third game after joining the Yankees, the outfielder has struggled in limited playing time and is redundant to Rosario as a right-handed bat off the bench.
Rotation
Max Fried
Carlos Rodón
Cam Schlittler
Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are obvious picks for the Yankees’ first two starters. Each was an All-Star this season, each has at least 17 victories, each has an ERA around 3.00. The decision comes at the third starter spot. Luis Gil is the incumbent, having won AL Rookie of the Year and making a pair of playoff starts last season. But Cam Schlittler has come out of nowhere to give him a run for his money, posting a 3.27 ERA through 13 starts. All signs are pointing towards Schlittler supplanting Gil — after starting Saturday, he’s lined up to pitch in a potential Game 3 of the Wild Card Series Thursday on regular rest — though Gil could remain in play for a start in a later series.
Bullpen
David Bednar
Luke Weaver
Devin Williams
Fernando Cruz
Camilo Doval
Tim Hill
Mark Leiter Jr.
Luis Gil
Ryan Yarbrough
The first seven members of the Yankees’ bullpen listed above are fairly locked in. David Bednar is the team’s closer, with Luke Weaver and Devin Williams the top set-up options and the other four available in middle relief. That leaves four other options who have started games this season — Gil, Ryan Yarbrough, Will Warren, and Paul Blackburn — to round out the bullpen. I expect the team to carry Gil in what will be an all-hands-on-deck series. They should take Yarbrough, too, given his success earlier this season and status as one of only two lefties in the ‘pen.
That leaves Warren and Blackburn on the outside looking in. It would be a particular indignity for Warren, who’s been in the Yankees’ rotation for the entire season and had some encouraging stretches but was never consistent enough to warrant serious consideration for a playoff start. Another possibility is that the Yankees will carry only 11 pitchers in the first round, as they did last season, in which case Slater could crack the squad while Yarbrough gets held back for potential usage in a future series.
