The top eight teams in today’s projection are the same as Tuesday’s, but there are new 3 (Illinois, which replaces new 4 seed Vanderbilt, who drops another line after its losing streak grew to three games) and 4 seeds (Texas Tech, joining the Commodores, replacing Alabama).
At the other end of the at-large pool, there are four new entrants, three of whom are from the ACC (NC State, Virginia Tech, and Stanford). The Big Ten also added a team in Ohio State. That means the nine-bid ACC and Big Ten are only
a single team behind the current leaders, the SEC (10). And that accounts for Miami (Fla.) dropping out of the field (along with the SEC’s Missouri and Big 12’s TCU).
The Hurricanes, like their football rival from earlier this week, Indiana, rank in the lower 30s of the NET—36th and 37th, respectively. While that’s a good sign for their eventual selection, Miami doesn’t own a win over a team projected to be in the field at the moment, even at 3-3 against Quadrants 1 and 2. It’s worse for the Hoosiers, who are 1-7 against the same group (0-5 against Quad 1 alone). Similarly, Cincinnati now has one of the best wins out there, a 79-70 home victory over Iowa State, but that’s the Bearcats’ lone victory in nine Quad 1 or 2 games. When your NET is in the 70s, that won’t cut it. (Wes Miller’s club is 72nd as of this morning.)
So, expect to see a lot of shuffling around the Cut Line until teams in the 10+ seed range start winning a little more consistently. And don’t be surprised to see teams that I don’t mention in one bracket showing up a few days later. The margins are just that narrow right now, and there are too many teams out there that need to prove themselves worthy of selection in seven weeks.
NOTE: Changes since Tuesday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) Navy (Patriot)
(8) Texas A&M (SEC)
(9) Iowa
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▼(5) Alabama
▲(12) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
(4) Virginia
(13) Troy (Sun Belt)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Clemson
★/★(11) Ohio State/Stanford
▲(3) Illinois
(14) UNCW (CAA)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Kentucky
(10) Seton Hall
(2) Nebraska (Big Ten)
(15) UT Martin (OVC)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan
(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)/Maryland-Eastern Shore (MEAC)
▲(8) Villanova
▼(9) Utah State
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Kansas
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
▼(4) Vanderbilt
▼(13) Utah Valley (WAC)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(6) Tennessee
(11) San Diego State (MW)
(3) BYU
▲(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(7) UCF
★(10) NC State
(2) Gonzaga (WCC)
(15) Queens (ASUN)
(2) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn (Big East)
(16) Vermont (AE)/Saint Peter’s (MAAC)
▲(8) Auburn
(9) Wisconsin
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▲(5) Louisville
▼(12) Murray State (MVC)
(4) Florida
▼(13) Florida Atlantic (AC)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(6) St. John’s
▼/★(11) Texas/Virginia Tech
(3) Michigan State
(14) ETSU (SoCon)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) North Carolina
▼(10) USC
(2) Houston
(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(3) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) LIU (NEC)
(8) Saint Mary’s
▼(9) Saint Louis (A 10)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Arkansas
▲(12) Yale (Ivy)
▲(4) Texas Tech
(13) Hawai’i (Big West)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) SMU
▲(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(3) Iowa State
(14) Winthrop (Big South)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Georgia
(10) New Mexico
(2) Purdue
▼(15) Wright State (Summit)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: NC State, Seton Hall, New Mexico, USC
Last Four IN: Texas, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Stanford
First Four OUT: TCU, UCLA, Santa Clara, West Virginia
Next Four Out: Baylor, LSU, VCU, Missouri
ARRIVALS (5): NC State, Ohio State, Stanford, Vermont (AE), Virginia Tech
DEPARTURES: George Mason (A 10), Miami (Fla.), Missouri, NJIT (AE), TCU
Conference Breakdown
The A 10 drops down to a single bid with Saint Louis’s overall record pushing them just ahead of fellow conference undefeated George Mason, a team that doesn’t have much of an at-large chance.
SEC (10): Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M (auto bid), Auburn, Texas (First Four)
ACC (9): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Louisville, Clemson, SMU, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech (First Four), Stanford (First Four)
Big Ten (9): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska (auto bid), Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, USC, Ohio State (First Four)
Big 12 (7): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas, UCF
Big East (4): UConn (auto bid), St. John’s, Villanova, Seton Hall
MW (3): Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State (auto bid)
WCC (2): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s
Games to Watch
All times are p.m. Eastern unless noted. Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance. Times/dates subject to change due to the weather forecast for this weekend.
Friday
It’s not March yet, but there will be workday hoops anyway, thanks to rescheduled games in the American, ASUN, CUSA, NEC, SoCon, and Sun Belt. See Matt Sarz’s Sports for more info.
Ohio State at Michigan, 8 (Fox)
Utah State at Colorado State, 10 (FS1)
Saint Louis at St. Bonaventure, 5:30 (ESPN)
Indiana at Rutgers, 6 (FS1)
Marquette at Butler, 8 (FS1)
Akron at Ohio, 8 (ESPNU)
The Buckeyes have a huge opportunity to improve their stock when they travel to Ann Arbor tonight, while the Hoosiers cannot lose in Piscataway and the Bulldogs can’t lose to a terrible Golden Eagle squad at Hinkle. In the Mountain West, the Aggies will look to end their two-game skid. Troublingly, Utah State lost at home to UNLV on Tuesday. The Atlantic 10 co-leaders, meanwhile, have to avoid the trap a game in Olean presents.
Saturday
North Carolina at Virginia, 12 (ESPN2)
Villanova at UConn, 12:30 (Fox)
Georgia at Texas, 1 (SECN)
Wake Forest at Duke, 12 (CW)
Mississippi at Kentucky, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State, 12 (SECN+)
South Carolina at Texas A&M, 1 (SECN+)
Maryland at Michigan State, 12 (CBS)
Nebraska at Minnesota, 12 (FS1)
Clemson at Georgia Tech, 12 (ACCN)
NC State at Pitt, 12 (ESPNU)
Illinois State at Belmont, 12 (ESPN+ ($))
Delaware at Liberty, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
UNCW at Hampton, 12 (Monumental SN/FloHoops ($))
Northern Kentucky at Wright State, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
Vermont at Bryant, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
There have been a lot of scheduling changes, meaning the early afternoon window is much more crowded than it would have been just a couple of days ago.
Houston at Texas Tech, 2 (ESPN)
Illinois at Purdue, 3 (Fox)
Virginia Tech at Louisville, 2:15 (CW)
West Virginia at Arizona, 2 (CBS)
Oklahoma at Missouri, 2 (ESPN2)
St. John’s at Xavier, 2:30 (TNT/TruTV)
UCF at Colorado, 3 (ESPN+ ($))
Miami (Fla.) at Syracuse, 2 (ACCN)
George Mason at Rhode Island, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Yale at Penn, 2 (ESPNU)
Troy at Georgia Southern, 3 (ESPN+ ($))
Winthrop at Presbyterian, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Queens at West Georgia, 2:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Army West Point at Navy, 1:30 (CBSSN)
Boston U. at Colgate, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Saint Peter’s at Merrimack, 3 (NESN/ESPN+ ($))
The Game of the Day—Cougars at Red Raiders—got moved up, thanks to the weather and scheduling changes elsewhere.
Auburn at Florida, 4 (ESPN)
Iowa State at Oklahoma State, 4 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
San Diego State at UNLV, 4 (CBS)
Seton Hall at DePaul, 5 (TruTV)
Florida State at SMU, 4 (ACCN)
VCU at Davidson, 5 (USA)
Tulsa at Rice, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Murray State at Northern Iowa, 4 (CBSSN)
Stephen F. Austin at Lamar, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Jackson State at Bethune-Cookman, 4 (ESPNU)
New Orleans at McNeese, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
Portland State at Idaho, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
TCU at Baylor, 6 (ESPN)
Utah at BYU, 5:30 (Fox)
Northwestern at UCLA, 6 (FS1)
Grand Canyon at Fresno State, 7:30 (MWN)
The Horned Frogs-Bears game got bumped up to replace Houston-Texas Tech.
Tennessee at Alabama, 8:30 (ESPN)
Kansas at Kansas State, 8 (Fox)
LSU at Arkansas, 8:30 (SECN)
Nevada at New Mexico, 8 (FS1)
San Francisco at Gonzaga, 8 (CBSSN)
Saint Mary’s at Portland, 8 (KUNP/ESPN+ ($))
California at Stanford, 8 (ACCN)
Utah Valley at Cal Baptist, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
North Dakota State at Oral Roberts, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Pay attention to the Battle for the Axe (basketball version) as the Cardinal are the last team in today’s field, and the Golden Bears are now very much in the hunt.
Cincinnati at Arizona State, 10 (CBSSN)
Santa Clara at San Diego, 9:30 (ESPN+ ($))
UC Irvine at UC San Diego, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
CSUN at Hawai’i, 12 a.m. (Spectrum Sports Hawai’i/ESPN+ ($))
Sunday
USC at Wisconsin, 4 (Peacock ($))
Florida Atlantic at South Florida, 1 (ESPN2)
Oregon at Washington, 3 (Peacock ($))
The most intriguing game on NFL Conference Championship Sunday might very well be the showdown in Tampa between the Owls and Bulls, who look to be the most serious contenders for the American title.
Monday
Arizona at BYU, 9 (ESPN)
Louisville at Duke, 7 (ESPN)
Penn State at Ohio State, 7 (FS1)
Big Monday is back with a crucial Big 12 showdown, as playing the Cougars in Provo will be a serious test for the Big 12-leading Wildcats. In the early game, the Blue Devils will be looking to sweep the Cardinals after pulling away late in their trip to Louisville.
My next update will arrive on Tuesday.
