This past weekend, Islam Makhachev etched his name into the history books, dominating Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322. The performance earned Makhachev his second UFC title and drew comparisons to Khamzat Chimaev’s suffocating win over Dricus du Plessis earlier this year. So let’s talk about the fallout from UFC 322, what comes next in the welterweight division, and the problem with champ-champs.
Islam Makhachev and Jack Della Maddalena
Dricus du Plessis, Jack Della Maddalena; obviously these guys were champs and understand the fight game,
but how do you explain how underwhelming their performances were against the wrestlers Khamzat Chimaev and Islam Makhachev? I know their wrestling/grappling is elite but it’s just crazy that DDP and JDM know the exact game plan used against them but had nothing in response besides enough defense to survive the submission attempts.
In the aftermath of UFC 322, I’ve seen a lot of people compare Islam-JDM to Chimaev-DDP, and while I get the comparison, I do think something fundamentally different happened in those fights. So first, let me focus on the UFC 322 main event, and then we can loop in Chiamev-DDP at the end.
I’ve rewatched the Islam-JDM fight several times now, and frankly, I think a lot of people are getting the post-fight analysis wrong. Despite what several prominent fighters have suggested, I do not believe this was an instance of Della Maddalena being unprepared; I think this was a showcase of just how good and prepared Makhachev was.
If you re-watch that fight, something you’ll notice is that at no point in time is JDM conceding positions, or holding on for dear life (like DDP did against Chimaev in spots); he is constantly moving for positions from the bottom, fighting hands, and trying to create space to scramble. The problem is, Makhachev was prepared for everything and shut it all down before JDM could really get anything going.
Time and again, Makhachev countered the initial efforts of JDM to start a sequence, like he was reading his mind. In other fights, JDM has been able to use those tools to create scrambles, but not in this one. That’s a credit to Makhachev, not a knock on Della Maddalena. Which leads me to my big conclusion about the fight: Jack Della Maddalena made a tactical decision that failed completely.
In the build-up to UFC 322, JDM and his team acknowledged they’d get taken down, but were confident in JDM’s ability to get back up, because he’s had success with that before. And so, I believe that that’s what they focused on in preparation. You only have so much time to prepare, and instead of focusing on counter-wrestling — a skill Della Maddalena isn’t especially great at in the first place, and one that Makhachev is particularly capable of countermanding — they chose to focus more on scrambling, something JDM already excels at. It’s a reasonable decision, but one that does not work at all if Makhachev is simply too good at nullifying efforts on the ground. That’s what happened, and it’s why, before the fifth round, Della Maddalena looked like he was nearly in tears, because there was nothing he could do to stop what was happening.
Contrast that with du Plessis and Chimaev, where DDP looked entirely out of his depth. There were none of the varied efforts at creating scrambles that we saw from Della Maddalena; DDP simply looked like a turtle that was put on its back. I believe he entered that fight believing in his ability to match Chimaev’s physicality, and stuff takedowns, and when neither proved true, he had nothing else to offer, which is why he just held on.
Dricus du Plessis lost because he ran out of ideas very quickly. Jack Della Maddalena lost not because he lacked ideas, but because Islam Makhachev had all the answers.
Welterweight title picture
After this weekend, who’s next for Islam Makhachev?
Welterweight had a showcasing for new potential contenders with Morales and Prates winning big at 322, Garry fights Belal next weekend, and Shavkat’s been MIA for nearly a year. Do these three fights potentially have a enough to quash talks of a “super fight” with Ilia Topuria?
I hate to say this, but if I were placing wagers right now, I’d say Kamaru Usman is the frontrunner. Mind you, that is not at all what should happen, just what seems the most likely.
In the lead-up to UFC 322, Usman was everywhere, trying to talk himself into a title fight. And while that’s not especially uncommon, what is uncommon is the help he was getting along the way. Makhachev has repeatedly said he’d like that fight, Makhachev’s team has called for it, and Dana White was out there stating that Usman is “the greatest welterweight of all time,” which is obviously untrue. But when you want to promote a fight, that’s how the UFC builds things up.
That being said, I don’t think Usman is a lock to get a title shot by any means. Right now, the welterweight title picture feels very fluid, and the next challenger will, most likely, be determined by things like schedule, rather than by merit. But here’s how I’d book things if I had the power of the pen.
Islam Makhachev defends against Shavkat Rakhmonov — Shavkat had a title fight against Belal, and Belal pulled out. Shavkat did the UFC a solid and stayed on the card, and won, getting injured in the process. He deserves his day in court, and that fight BANGS.
Kamaru Usman vs. the winner of Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry — Usman needs more than just a win over Joaquin Buckley, and he’s got beef with Belal. And if IMG wins, he can’t jump past Shavkat, so let’s make him earn it.
Michael Morales vs. Carlos Prates — Morales probably “deserves” a title shot after beating Sean Brady, but I just don’t see that happening. And this fight would be nuts.
As for Ilia Topuria, I won’t say that the fight is dead because people are fixated on it in a way that I truly don’t understand, but I think it’s unlikely anytime soon. Makhachev isn’t dropping back down, and it would be insane to let Topuria bump up again. He is not a welterweight, not even a little bit. And while lightweight kind of needed Topuria with Makhachev moving up, welterweight does not.
Triple Champ
Out of the 3 possible triple champ fights which one would say is the biggest, the most competitive and if you had to pick 1 to see which one would it be?
Alex Pereira at HW vs Tom Aspinall/Ciryl Gane
Islam Makhachev at MW vs Khamzat Chimaev
Ilia Topuria at WW vs Islam Makhachev
The biggest is undoubtedly Makhachev vs. Topuria because people have been losing their minds over that fight for nearly a year now, in a way that I truly don’t understand.
People do not want to hear this, but that fight is much better on paper than in actuality. Topuria is great, and may end up being an all-time great, and at lightweight, it had some intrigue, but at welterweight, it’s not competitive. Frankly, it probably looks worse than what we saw on Saturday. Weight classes exist for a reason, and Makhachev is much bigger than him. Topuria is not a welterweight. He may be a good lightweight because he’s so great, but even that’s still up for debate. So, unless Makhachev drops back to 155 — unlikely — I have minimal interest in that fight.
Pereira at heavyweight is interesting. Against Aspinall, it’s obviously a massive fight, but like Makhachev-Topuria, it probably wouldn’t be thrilling; Aspinall would just tackle him. But against Gane, Pereira has a real shot. The difference is that fight is definitely not as big as the Aspinall matchup would be. Still, I’d prefer either fight to Makhachev-Topuria because Pereira doesn’t have much left to do at 205, and heavyweight is in desperate need of something interesting.
And I don’t know what to think of Makhachev vs. Chimaev. As with Topuria moving to 170, Makhachev should not be allowed to jump up to middleweight. It would make no sense and it’s bad for everyone. But I am oddly fascinated by the matchup, at least. Chimaev is exceptional in his own right, but he has clearly defined flaws, and Makhachev could be an interesting challenge.
Islam is a much better striker, and he has spent his entire life being the nail to the greatest MMA wrestler and top control grappler in the history of the sport, Khabib Nurmagomedov. In some ways, Chimaev is the opponent Makhachev was bred to face. And with Khabib being there to prepare him, Makhachev sort of has as good a chance as anyone at beating Chimaev. So they should not book it, and I don’t think it will happen, but it’s a fight I’m sneaky curious about.
Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua
Please walk me through a hypothetical scenario in which Jake wins this Anthony Joshua fight.
Also please ruminate and expound upon the possible career-calculus behind this decision.
The only possible scenario is that Paul immediately throws as hard an overhand right as he possibly can, and divine intervention guides it to Joshua’s chin for the most outrageous KO in the history of the sport.
Jake Paul is a perfectly serviceable boxer, but he’s not even a club-level fighter. Anthony Joshua is a legitimate top heavyweight still. It’s hard to state how overmatched Paul is in this fight. A miracle punch is the only avenue to victory.
And I still am not sure I believe this will happen, but assuming it does, the career calculus is that Paul eventually had to fight someone real, and this is the cash-out moment. He’s been built up like a prize hog for the county fair, and eventually that hog has to get slaughtered. But this is the best way to sacrifice the hog, because when Paul loses, he will immediately say he “dared to be great” and fought a bigger, stronger, heavyweight champion — which is kind of true! No one will begrudge him losing to one of the best heavyweights in the world. Which means he can then resume the “target old, non-boxer” grift for a while before finding another payday against Canelo or someone.
Champ Champs
At first I was all in favor of champs dropping the belts to move up. It seemed like a good way to keep from having two divisions held up. In practice though, we now have champs in three divisions (Volk, Ilia, and Mackenzie) that only seem to be champs because the real champ moved up. We all know they’re likely second best, at best. And what is with the winners like Ilia and Islam taking pics with two belts?
What can we do to solve this? Force people to sit in one division like Merab?
I mean, taking pictures with two belts makes sense: they won belts in two weight classes. Of course, they’re going to do that.
As for the changing weight classes thing, there’s no way to fix it. The idea of fighters dropping titles never made sense to me in the first place, because it’s dropped in name only. Case in point, Zhang is about to drop back down to 115 pounds after losing, meaning this was all dumb. Just do interim belts when a fighter is challenging up a weight class, and then they can vacate that title if they win.
And unfortunately, there is no way to incentivize fighters to stay in a division. Aside from the business incentives of “two-division champion,” it’s a culture thing. Fans believe that winning multiple belts is the sign of true greatness (it’s not; it’s the sign that you won one fight, which can mean many things) and simply do not care about title defenses. It’s frustrating, but the reality.
My suggestion is that champions should only be allowed to move up once they’ve gotten four title defenses in a weight class. Four defenses is an incredible achievement, a sign of true greatness (only 19 fighters in UFC history have four successful title defenses — 20 if you count Tyron Woodley, but one was a draw), and worthy of some special accommodations. At four defenses, the rest of the division has had a shot at you, and you’ve proven to be the best of the bunch, not just a guy who won a few fights.
Plus, aside from being more meritorious, it would make title defenses more fun for the fans. Next month, Merab wouldn’t just be rematching Petr Yan, he’d be fighting for a chance to move up to 145! People would love that, and it would make everything so much simpler.
Someone text Dana White.
Thanks for reading, and thank you to everyone who sent in Tweets. Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer my favorite ones! Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.
