It’s likely fair to say there will be dancing in the streets of Phoenix tonight, at the news many fans were waiting to hear. Notably, the save situation in the ninth inning today went to Brandyn Garcia, even though established closer Paul Sewald was likely available. He had required only thirteen pitches to blow the three-run lead last night, his first appearance since Friday in Washington. But after the game, a key win for the D-backs against the Pirates, word came from the mouth of manager Torey
Lovullo.
On the one hand, Sewald has remained pretty good at doing what a closer is going to do: save games. He has 24 saves in 27 opportunities. Of the twenty-four pitchers with double-digits in saves this year, that 89% rate is right in the middle of the pack (equal 11th). However, the manner in which he has been doing so has been causing concern for some time. In mid-June, I wrote, “My concerns, personally, are more whether Sewald can be as effective going forward, because the peripherals aren’t great, and suggest he may be over-performing.” The following day, he notched his 17th save, and reduced his ERA to 3.08.
But results since have been horrific, and it has mostly been due to a problem with the long ball. Over thirteen games since that date, Sewald has faced 54 batters, and allowed seven home-runs. Over 11.1 innings, his ERA is 10.32, and his FIP is right in line with that, at 9.20. The weird thing is, Sewald’s K:BB ratio has been very good, with 14 strikeouts to just 2 walks. But you cannot allow home-runs at that rate. The surprise is perhaps how relatively quick it feels Torey Lovullo was to pull the plug on Paul’s role as closer. Though his last blown save ended up being on exactly the same date, July 28, as before he lost the job in 2024.
That was his fourth blown save – so just one more than this season. However, in 2024 it was in a lot fewer opportunities: his save percentage at that point was only 80% (16 in 20 chances). To be fair, it’s hard to complain too much, considering Sewald is only getting paid $1.5 million this season. There are many, far better-paid closers who are also having their share of struggles. It’s also a lot less than the $7.35 million he cost the team in 2024. This may have been a factor in Torey not hanging around. If you order a pitcher off Temu, it’s no big deal if subsequently discover you have to throw it out.
So, where does the team go from here? Seems like it’s going to be that ol’ standby, of “closer by committee” – at least until Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk return. Speaking of which, Jack’s best guess for the return of J-Mart is August 7-14. Though a) that’s subject to change, and b) it’s extremely unlikely he would go straight back into the closer’s role. Puk is even further off, having been shutdown for a capsule sprain in July. So there will be help – hopefully, at least – just not immediately. For now, though here are the numbers for the seven other members of the D-backs’ current bullpen (not including Garcia’s inning today):
Those are some pretty good options. Five of the seven have an ERA below three, though the peripheral metrics are less convinced, to varying degrees. Taylor Clarke probably has the biggest gap between his ERA and the other numbers. I suspect he’s likely to be at the back of the pack, along with Gerardo Carrillo. His heroics last night notwithstanding, he doesn’t have the experience in closing Torey Lovullo wants. After all, that was a significant factor in why the team signed Sewald, and went with him in the role. Ryan Thompson has also had his struggles of late, with an ugly ERA of 9.00 across his eleven appearances in July. I’d not expect them to be on the committee.
Kevin Ginkel is potentially fringy. He does have closer experience, with 16 saves. That’s more than Juan Morillo (2), Garcia (2, after today) and Jonathan Loaisiga (9). But he struggled when he was the Arizona closer at the beginning of 2024 – ironically, being replaced by Sewald in May. I suspect we’ll see Morillo and Loaisiga split the opportunities if the ninth sees the Diamondbacks facing right-handers, while Garcia will see left-handers. Morillo has a better K-rate than Loaisiga, but his walk-rate is worse, but overall Morillo has the better peripherals, so he would likely be my first choice.
But it will be interesting to see who ends up the year with most save opportunities. There’s a poll below on this very topic, so make your selection and explain yourself in the comments.
