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State overcame a 10-point halftime deficit (good!), but Virginia had the ball with 1st & 10 at the NC State 12 yard line with a chance to take the lead with just over a minute to play (bad!). Thankfully, Cian Slone came up with a massive interception to seal the win. Let’s look at some gross overreactions – or, you know, maybe just appropriate reactions – to that game and the season to date.
- After posting an 89.9% post-game win expectancy against ECU yet having to hold on for dear life at the end of the game, NC State did it again this past weekend. The Wolfpack had a 93.4% post-game win expectancy against Virginia yet needed an interception in the end zone with 1:02 left to seal the win.
- Good news: The team is playing better than the final scores are indicating.
- Bad news: Opponents are in positions to win games that the Pack should be winning handedly.
- There were a lot of missed tackles. That’s concerning.
- The defense is doing great at swarming to the ball, especially on a 3rd/4th-and-short, but is lacking containment. That allowed some huge runs from Virginia. A week after bottling up ECU’s run game to barely a yard per carry, the run defense looked atrocious. The truth is somewhere in the middle, but it was rough watching the run D swing to the other extreme.
- The pass defense is still a massive issue, especially with the seemingly huge open spots in coverage. Two straight weeks of opponents picking apart the secondary and, if anything, it looked worse against Virginia. Out route? Open. Drag? Open. Slant? Open. Corner? Open. Post? Open. Yikes. State’s secondary doesn’t appear to have the speed to run man and hasn’t learned the defense well enough to play zone.
- It’s time to worry significantly about special teams. Kanoah Vinesett is back as the kicker, so maybe that’s settled, but Caden Noonkester was massively inconsistent and the punt coverage team lacked the ability to get off blocks at the line of scrimmage. That poor combination gave return opportunities to the Cavaliers. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.
- What the heck is up with several players – including C.J. Bailey – wearing dangling mouthguards for show? This is my “get off my lawn” rant, but it looks ridiculous. Is it really just for show? Or will you throw it in when it’s time to run and tip your hand to the defense?
- Hollywood Smothers is the real deal. If he plays the whole season, dude is going to easily break Ted Brown’s single season rushing record (1,350 yards).
- Another game where Dave Doeren tries to run out the clock with far too much game left. After a great defensive stop and the ball at the Wolfpack 8 yard line with 6:36 to go and a 4-point lead, the offense goes complete “prevent offense” mode and runs the most vanilla plays possible.
- Kudos to Doeren, though, for going for it on 4th & 1 from inside his own territory to try and grab control of the game back after almost letting it get out of his hand, buuuuuuut…
- If you’re willing to do that, then why not go with some decent play calls beforehand (and after, for that matter)?
- Also, if you’re going to use one of Will Wilson’s redshirt games (or burn his redshirt for the season) using him in obvious run situations, then why not use him in those situations to run out the clock? C.J. Bailey isn’t a statue, but Wilson is big, fast, and powerful – and his handling of that high heater of a snap on the 4th & 1 call showed off his tremendous hands (those shortstop skills are transferable to the gridiron, I see). Don’t let Bailey take those extra licks.
- The completion percentage was roughly the same from the ECU game to the Virginia game for Bailey, but he looked so much better. His throws had better touch and he looked much more comfortable out there.
- To that end, this is going to be State’s best offense since Devin Leary got possessed (and healthy) for the 2021 season. Doeren appears to have nailed at least one of his coordinator hires.
- Can we please get some more blitz going? Slone played his coverage to perfection on the game-sealing interception, but the pass was thrown short in part because of the pressure from J.J. Johnson coming off the edge when Chandler Morris rolled out of the pocket. If the coverage isn’t great, then don’t give the opposing QB more time to pick it apart.
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