The Baltimore Ravens’ Week 4 win over the Tennessee Titans came at a steep cost. Lamar Jackson’s “unconventional” ankle injury – neither a high nor low sprain, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport – will sideline him in Week 5 against the Atlanta Falcons, and potentially beyond.
Jackson’s injury has positioned the red-hot Falcons as 3.5-point favorites for a home primetime matchup (via FanDuel Sportsbook). The Ravens will also be without leading edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, and newly-acquired center Cam
Jurgens will not be available until next week. This will be a tough matchup for Jesse Minter’s 3-1 squad on both sides of the ball against a 2-2 Falcons team that is firing on all cylinders coming into Week 5.
Atlanta lost their first two games with ex-Raven Cooper Rush under center, but Michael Penix’s return to the starting lineup has sent their offense into the stratosphere. The Falcons have eclipsed 200 passing and rushing yards in both of his starts with a total of 80 points and 918 yards of offense. Their defense has stifled opposing rushing offenses to the tune of just 48.3 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. They have allowed the third-most passing yards in the league, but just the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, due in large part to a ferocious pass rush.
The Falcons’ run defense will be a major obstacle for the Ravens, who are trotting out backup quarterback Tyler Huntley for his 17th career start (12th in Baltimore). He came away with victories in both of Jackson’s absence last year and has a reputation as a ‘gamer’ who can play above his perceived arm talent. But his success has been predicated on Baltimore’s ability to run the ball, both via traditional under-center concepts to Derrick Henry and utilizing Huntley’s legs in the read-option game. The Ravens’ run game with Jackson on the field has been underwhelming at times this year, so Declan Doyle and Dwayne Ledford will need to find a new way to break through the Falcons’ front.
Beatdown’s Zach Canter proposed a heavy dose of outside zone runs to target Atlanta’s weakened group of edge defenders and force their fearsome interior to chase plays to the sideline, and I’m inclined to agree. Doyle needs to mix in plenty of QB runs for Huntley to keep the Falcons defense honest and take one defender out of the play whenever possible. Keeping the offense ahead of the sticks will avoid obvious passing downs that allow the opposing pass rush to pin their ears back and attack a Ravens offensive line that is still dealing with multiple injuries.
In the pass game, Doyle should give Huntley quick reads and dial up plenty of high-percentage designed touches for his skill players. The Falcons will be keying on Zay Flowers, the league’s most efficient receiver through four weeks, so Doyle may need to explore some changeups. What about a TE screen to Matt Hibner, who has flashed a knack for YAC in his first four NFL games? Rashod Bateman is not as dynamic of an athlete as Flowers, but he is underrated after the catch and could take Atlanta by surprise if Doyle schemes him into open space.
When scouting the Falcons during their win over the Saints on Monday night, I noted the potential for Jesse Minter to run more base defense against Robinson and Atlanta’s rushing attack. But instead of moving back to Baltimore’s traditional 3-4, Minter could roll out some 4-3 looks with Roquan Smith, Trenton Simpson, and Teddye Buchanan as off-ball linebackers. If the Falcons go heavy, Kyle Hamilton can line up in the box into a modified 4-4 look, too.
But scheme and personnel will not matter if the Ravens do not tackle. Minter and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver have surely been stressing fundamentals all week, and I’ll throw one more note on there: stop selling out for the strip. Baltimore’s defenders love to fly in and attempt punch-outs, and they will be tempted to do so against Robinson, who has coughed the ball up 11 times since 2023. But that aggressiveness leads to more missed tackles that the defense will not be able to afford on Sunday night. Instead, the first defender needs to focus on wrapping up the ballcarrier and wait for his teammates to go for the ball. This does not mean give up on forcing fumbles, but rather controlling risk when doing so.
The Falcons have installed a quick-passing game that gets the ball into the hands of their playmakers as fast as possible. Penix’s 2.29-second time-to-throw is the fastest in the league, so Minter needs to use that quickness against him. Blitzing will not work – the ball comes out too fast – but showing pressure could bait Penix into targeting his pre-snap hot reads. Minter has gleefully sent Kyle Hamilton at opposing quarterbacks this year, setting up a potential changeup on Sunday night with the 6-foot-4 safety dropping off the line of scrimmage into Penix’s quick passing lanes. The Ravens will likely need to steal a possession on Sunday night; this might be the way to do it.
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