The Cleveland Cavaliers have punched their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they’ll take on the New York Knicks in a series that starts on Tuesday.
New York’s path to the Conference Finals was far less stressful than Cleveland’s. Their first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks went six games, but the Knicks were firmly in control of that series except for a few standout showings from CJ McCollum. They then took care of business against a worn-out Philadelphia 76ers team by sweeping
them in a matchup that never felt competitive.
The Knicks have been elite on both sides of the ball throughout this postseason, but are a far different test than what the Cavs have faced so far. They’ll be going from two straight rock fights to a shootout.
The Toronto Raptors and Detroit Pistons challenge opponents with their brute force. Conversely, the Knicks beat you with more finesse and skill. That’s a style the Cavs are more equipped to play, even if New York is more talented than either of their previous opponents.
Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns define the Knicks on both ends of the floor for better or for worse.
Their offense is dynamic because of this duo. Brunson is one of the most electric scoring guards in the league, who is efficient at all three levels. You can do things to make it difficult for him to get to his spots, but you can’t take Brunson’s scoring away entirely. He’s going to get his points.
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Towns’s shooting changes any offense he plays with. He’s one of the few legit stretch fives in the league, as he knocked down 36.8% of his 4.1 outside attempts a game. You simply have to stay with him on the perimeter. And unlike other stretch bigs, he’s elite at beating mismatches inside. Towns has one of the best post games as a scorer and a playmaker. So if you send help, he’s going to find one of New York’s open shooters on the perimeter.
On top of that, they have high-level wings in OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. Both are elite shooters and can beat teams off the dribble.
In short, the Cavs haven’t faced an offense with this many weapons. Containing them will be far more difficult than locking down their previous opponents.
However, the Cavaliers also haven’t faced a defense that their guards and bigs can attack as easily as New York’s.
New York has the second-best defensive rating in the postseason (106.1) and has held their opponent under 105 points in seven of their 10 postseason games. That’s unbelievably impressive. That said, a closer look under the hood shows that maybe there’s some fool’s gold there.
The Knicks gave up the second-most threes in the regular season and are giving up the fourth-most among playoff teams. In the regular season, their opponents knocked down 36.6% of their threes against them (21st). In the playoffs, they’re hitting just 32.2%. Shooting that poorly is why the Knicks have given up so few points so far.
Evaluating three-point defense is difficult. Not all outside looks are created equally. Part of a playoff game plan is to give up open threes to non-shooters. At the same time, this percentage is far below what you’d expect from a playoff team.
On top of that, teams are still getting to the rim against the Knicks.
New York gives up the eighth most shots at the basket among the 20 postseason teams, and teams are converting them. Teams have completed 71.2% of their looks at the rim (the 7th highest of the playoffs). That’s not an ideal percentage.
The Knicks are vulnerable in the pick-and-roll. Brunson isn’t a good point of attack defender, and Towns struggles to defend in space. Towns can hold his own in the post with his size and length, but if you get him moving, his poor body control can lead to him getting in foul trouble.
This will be by far the easiest matchup offensively for Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. They will have much more room to operate in the pick-and-roll and won’t have to finish inside through as many sturdy defenders.
Establishing the pick-and-roll will help get the bigs going, as well. Harden has shown great chemistry with both bigs, but particularly with Jarrett Allen. That hasn’t been on display as much in the postseason due to the opponent. It will be again in this matchup.
The Cavs only played the Knicks once in the regular season with Harden, but they were able to establish the pick-and-roll easily. This resulted in New York attempting to send wings to slow down the action, which opened up the floor for the Cavs to playmake from the perimeter.
Evan Mobey has elevated his offensive game this postseason. He’s done a good job of beating mismatches, and New York will give him plenty of opportunities to continue that trend.
Combine that with them giving up far more outside shots, and there are simply way more ways for the Cavs to attack this opponent than they had versus the Raptors and Pistons.
This will be a much freer-flowing series with two elite offenses. Whoever gets the more consistent contributions from their stars and better shooting from the role players will likely head to the NBA Finals.
