The Mariners are in first place.
I don’t have anything well thought out for you today. I wanted to do something about what’s changed from April to May. But would you look at the time it’s already June 7. There will be no clean narrative here. Still, I’ve got a few quick hitters on recent trends.
The first is obvious: The Mariners are winning more baseball games than they’re losing these days. They recently rattled off eight in a row and are fourth in the American League in wins; second in pythag and Base
Runs. This has got them to three games over .500 and first place in the AL West.
Unfortunately, I’m obligated to tell you that, after starting the year 17-28, the Astros have gone 13-8. They’ve somehow done this while playing bad on both sides of the ball — the great April offense has disappeared, while the pitching remains a disaster — so I’m not too concerned. The Rangers and Athletics continue to explore the space just below .500, while the Angels are the worst team in baseball.
Big Jhomper
The timing of the Mariners success is somewhat surprising, as they’ve done it without (arguably) their best player. What’s fun though, as spied by Darren Gossler, is the Mariners catchers are sixth in baseball with a 115 wRC+ since Raleigh hit the IL on May 14. Maybe that’s not quite the production the Mariners were hoping to get at catcher in 2026, but it’s much better than I expected from a backup and a backup to the backup, and it’s much better than the 63 wRC+ Raleigh posted while playing through injury.
Jhonny Pereda has been especially fun. His wRC+ is up to 134 in 49 plate appearances. And it’s a “real” performance, too. He’s tearing the cover off the ball. I have no expectations that he’ll keep it up, but Pereda is playing his way into an all-time “remember that backup catcher” status, from the great hitting, the gunning down runners, the bat flipping singles, the busting it to first on obvious groundouts, and his general joyous energy. He’s such an easy player to root for, having spent 13 years in the minors before picking up his first big league homer last month. I love a feel-good story. I love it more when it helps the Mariners win.
Mitch Garver has also been better of late, with a 113 wRC+ in May. He continues to hit lefties well. He continues to hit the ball harder than just about anybody in baseball. He continues to hit the ball way too high for it to matter, of course, but he remains a solid backup nonetheless.
Raleigh begins his rehab assignment later this afternoon in Everett.
Brrrr, It’s Hot in Here
Bryan Woo has been great. Maybe that’s not a surprise, given how good he was last year. But he had two truly awful outings back-to-back at the end of April, and as Zach Mason recently noted, there’s something that feels just a bit off with Woo. In my mind, he’s been struggling all year.
And so, it was a bit of a surprise to see that Woo is not only not struggling anymore, but on the best run of his career by WAR:
Over his last six starts — since the stinkers — Woo has struck out a third of all batters faced, walked just 5%, and given up a single homer. That’s a 1.58 FIP, 1.85 xERA, and 2.75 ERA. He’s throwing strikes, missing bats, and preventing hard contact. Woo is now seventh in the majors with 2.1 fWAR. If he keeps it up, he’ll end the year with 5.4 fWAR. That’s an ace pace.
Now, I’d say he looks like the Mariners best pitcher, but hey, Bryce Miller is back and looks just as good.
Miller began the year on the injured list for an injury that wasn’t the same injury that kept him on the injured list most of last year. When he returned in May, he found himself part of a pork chop with Luis Castillo. The tandem worked tremendously well together.
Miller looked so good, in fact, the Mariners chose to pause their experiment for a bit, likely to see how he fares deeper into games. He got a full start Saturday and was fantastic, though didn’t get much work on the third time through the order (a mix of pure dominance and modest inefficiency). Regardless, he’s down to a 2.48 FIP, 1.75 xERA, and 1.33 ERA. Fantastic.
Maybe it’s Miller who’s set to be the Mariners next ace. Or maybe it’s both. Or maybe it’s neither. Who knows! But my concern in the preseason for this specific version of the roster was largely related to the rotation: their health, depth, and ceiling. And yeah, I’m starting to work on my recipe for hat a la mode.
It’s merely bad now
Hey, speaking of run suppression, the Mariners defense hasn’t been that bad lately.
In April, the Mariners defense was bottom five in baseball with -12 runs punted away. Since May 1, eh, well, they’re still bottom five in baseball, but with -4 runs punted away. It’s not good. And I’m not going to pretend it’s good. But they’re now in the range where their bat-first approach to position players has become a net benefit.
The sore spots for the Mariners in April were center field, right field, third base, and shortstop. The other half of the field was neutral, or a tick above average.
I just recently wrote about Julio’s defense in center. He made a couple misplays in April, though nothing that suggests to me that he’s any less likely to make those plays going forward.
Right field was an issue because Luke Raley is not a very good defender, as the guy taking the bulk of the innings there so far. But after a -3 mark in April, he’s been a zero in May. Third base was an issue because Brendan Donovan was injured and playing out of position. Colt Emerson has been perfectly adequate there since taking over.
The reason the Mariners are still below average in recent weeks is, frankly, J.P. Crawford. To be fair, the bat has carried Crawford to top-10 shortstop status on its own. But he has indeed been the worst defensive shortstop in baseball in 2026, with no signs of improving. The team initially did a bunch of press on moving him to third, though they’ve yet to follow through.
So it’s a weird dynamic now where the Mariners defense is still bad, but that badness is mostly limited to Crawford at short. If Julio starts playing a bit better, as I suspect he will, and once Raleigh returns behind the dish, the defense will look closer to fine going forward.
Young and younger
My top flower from April was Cole Young. He was hitting pretty well and took a massive leap forward in the field. Unfortunately, only one of those things is still true. Since May 1, Young has a 72 wRC+.
Now, I am Young Truther, a title applicable to many of us here on the staff. I love his profile. I think he’ll figure it out. And hey, he has a nine-game hit streak going, so perhaps he already has. But it’s worth a reminder that he’s still a young player, development isn’t linear, and it’s not always going to be flowers.
That’s something to remember for Colt Emerson, too. He has a 139 wRC+ through 65 plate appearances, and it’s hard to describe his debut as anything other than wildly successful, given the circumstances. I’m not sure that this level of success is going to last all year. He’s not hitting the ball hard, and he’s swinging through tons of pitches. It’d be a stretch to think he’s ready to go wire-to-wire as a great player right out of the gate. But maybe he is. He’s swinging at good pitches and getting the ball in the air. There’s a lot to like.
My overall impression of the Mariners right now is they seem to be in a good spot. The starting pitching has been fantastic. The hitting has been consistently pretty good since the earliest days of the season. The defense is not so unwatchable anymore. Lots can change in a month.
