That was a statement game.
A short week, on the road, down your entire linebacking corps. against the defending Superbowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, and the Chicago Bears breezed to a fairly convincing
25-14 victory in a game where they did not trail, and held the lead for over 45 game minutes after a 3-yard D’Andre Swift touchdown late in the first quarter put the Bears up 7-0.
It was their 9th win in 10 games, and 5th win in a row. This marks the first time since 2018 the Bears were winners of 9 of 10, and 5 in a row. (There’s beginning to be some eerie similarities to that season!)
All 4 scoring drives went 63-yards or longer, including a 12-play 87-yard drive that culminated near the beginning of the 4th quarter with a Kyle Monangai 4-yard touchdown to put the Bears up 17-9, proving to be the game winning touchdown.
The Bears pulled off the impressive with on the backs of their running backs, as both rookie Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift went for 100+ yards and a touchdown (a feat last accomplished by Walter Payton and Matt Suhey in 1985, and one that I may have predicted.) Before Friday, the Eagles had not allowed a 100 yard rusher all season, on Friday they allowed two. The Bears as a team they racked up 281 yards on the ground, the most the Eagles had given up at home in team history, and second most all time by the Eagles.
In fact the Bears ground game was so good that 177 of the 281 total yards came after contact, showcasing both Monangai’s highly touted contact balance, and Swift’s newly found penchant of it while continuing his tutelage under Bears running backs coach, Eric Bieniemy.
As for the passing game, it was an ugly stat line in ugly weather conditions. Caleb Williams would only complete 17 of 36 passes for 154 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception and a 56.9 Rating (80.4 TPR). Despite that lackluster stat line, Coach Johnson had nothing but praise for Caleb.
“He continues to get better each week. I couldn’t be more pleased with how he played last week. His process is really good how he approaches the week. I think he will continue to ascend whether the stats say so or not.” – Ben Johnson on Caleb Williams
One of the factors to some of these poor box scores may be an overlooked factor, a team that has seen the most air yards dropped by it’s receivers over the last 4 weeks.
But, back to the game. When the chips were down Williams made plays when needed, which included one of his most impressive throws this year given the circumstances. A cross-body ball on the rollout lofted perfectly to Cole Kmet to put the game away.
The Eagles would respond with a “too little, too late” touchdown. to push the final to 24-15.
As always, let’s dive into some metrics and play reviews.
Benchmarks
(Totals and averages are all before week 13: Season totals are underlined, Season averages in Italics)
C/A: 213/360 (59.2%) | 19.4/32.7 (59.2%) | 17/36 (47.2%)
Yards: 2568 | 233.5 | 154
Touchdowns: 16 | 1.5 | 1
Turnovers: 5 | 0.5 | 1
QB at Fault Sacks: 10 | 0.9 | 1
aDOT: 9.2 | 7.5
Passer Rating: 91.8 | 56.9
True Passer Rating: 129.2 | 80.4
Time to Throw: 3.04s | 2.54s
Time to Pressure: 2.64s | 2.31s
Pressure Rate: 31.13% | 28.57%
On-Target Rate: 65.2% | 67.9%
Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 11.0% PPR / 8.0% BPR | 6.7% PPR / 2.2% BRP
Game Scorecard
The full grading sheet for each play can be found here.
Game Notes
- NFL Passer Rating / True Passer Rating / PFF Grade: 56.9 / 80.4 / 63.1
- The average passer rating in the 2025 season sits at 91.9 through week 11. His 56.9 NFL Passer Rating would be considered a bad game.
- A 80.4 TPR falls into the Bad range, with 100 serving as the baseline for “Average.”
- And on the PFF scale, a score of 60 or higher is Average. With a 63.1 Caleb Williams’ day was considered an average outing.
- This brings up an interesting dichotomy of using statistics to quantify a quarterback’s play versus using film. While statistically (NFL Passer Rating/TPR) this would tell you “bad start”, the film (PFF/my own review) says it wasn’t actually all that bad. While I am definitely not saying this was a good game, I just think the stats are a bit misleading to the actual performance.
- On-Target Throws: Season Average: 65.2% | Week 13 vs. Eagles: 67.9%
- Reminder: Completion % ≠ On-Target %. On-target throws are only counted on aimed passes, so throw aways, spikes, and deflections at the line aren’t counted. And drops are counted as on-target.
- This marks the 6th consecutive week where Caleb Williams had an On-Target rate higher than his season average. This consistency in that area has seen his On-Target rate climb from around 59% heading into the Bye week in week 5, up above 65% heading into week 14.
- Short-Level Passing (Behind LOS – 9 yards): 15/17 | 88.2% On-Target
- Deep-Level Passing (10–20+ yards): 4/12 | 33.3% On-Target
- Reminder: Completion % ≠ On-Target %. On-target throws are only counted on aimed passes, so throw aways, spikes, and deflections at the line aren’t counted. And drops are counted as on-target.
- 6.7% Poor Play Rate (turnover-worthy + poorly graded plays) against a 2.2% Big Play Rate (great + elite graded plays)
- Another week of a PPR below season average, however with the weather conditions it proved to be difficult to find opportunities to create big plays out of the passing game. But the one Caleb did account for came when it mattered most, when he hit Cole Kmet for a 28-yard dagger to essentially end the game.
- Time To Throw: This week Caleb’s time to throw was once again below 3.00s, coming in at 2.54s, marking the second straight week of a sub 3 second time.
- This is mostly due to the offensive design the last two weeks, facing good pass rushes the Bears had focused on getting the ball out quickly, playing more within structure to minimize this. I’ve seen more slants, sticks, and screens the last 2 weeks then I’ve seen pretty much all the rest of the season combined. The windy weather also surely played a part here (which may also be reflected in the Short/Deep level On-Target rate, too.)
- Money Downs: Caleb Williams had a great day converting 3rd downs himself, going 8 for 13 (61.5%) on 3rd down conversions, which also included 4 clutch scrambles/runs for a first. He’s been fantastic on third down throughout the season.
- For reference the league leading team in 3rd down conversions, the Green Bay Packers, convert at a 49.3% rate.
- He also converted a clutch 4th down as the third quarter was winding down, a 7-yard Out to Colston Loveland as he was losing his throwing base. He had a chance to convert another near the end of the game, but it looked like wide receiver miscommunication was the point of failure.
- Iceman Williams: Once again, in the games most important quarter, Caleb was money.
- He went 5/6 for 57 yards, including the game sealing 28-yard touchdown throw to Cole Kmet. He also scrambled for a clutch 3rd down conversion showcasing his underrated quickness to beat a Eagles defender to the sticks for a 1st.
- On the season the 4th quarter has been where Williams regularly does his best work, completing 48 of 83 passes for 684 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception a 99.7 Rating, while also rushing for 49 yards on 9 attempts and 1 touchdown.
Play Reviews
The plays we’ll be reviewing are presented in the order they occurred in the game.
Analysis: Our first play we’re taking a look at is a simple one, but it highlights the play calling flow the Bears had early, and while the drive ultimately stalled due to a failed 4th-down run by Kyle Monangai, one of his very few failed runs on the afternoon, it was a nice pace and rhythm from the passing offense early.
I love the design of this, it’s a simple play-action boot getting the Bears receivers into a Levels look, giving Caleb a half field read.
A fantastic wrinkle to this is Luther Burden, who is the eventual target, selling the run post play-action. By doing so he freezes his defender, then takes one stutter step towards the middle of the field, and finally breaks into an Out, giving Caleb a very easy target to hit, Caleb delivers an well placed ball allowing Burden to turn up-field for an easy first down.
Honorable mention to Cole Kmet for busting it down field, making the Eagles secondary respect him, which really opening the underneath completion to Burden.
Analysis: On to an early missed opportunity for the offense to cash in on 6 through the air. Bears are running a Cross Switch at the top of the formation with DJ and Oz, and a Dagger concept at the bottom of the formation with Kmet and Rome.
With the play-action rollout this play is more than likely designed to hit DJ on the 10-yard crossing route, but the Eagles have good underneath coverage, so Caleb looks to the backside trailing receiver in Oz, who runs a very clean In, losing no speed out of his break and leaving his man in the dust.
Make no mistake, this a tough throw; across his body and the field, with pressure bearing down. So Caleb puts some mustard on the ball, which may have ultimately costed him a touchdown, as Oz dives for the ball, both arms outstretched, the ball glancing off his fingers for an incompletion.
There were a few missed touchdowns on Friday, we’ll get into the next one for the next play.
Analysis: On to our next play and there’s a few things I want to highlight here.
1.) Caleb reads this from left to right, starting with Luther and Colston, and it really seems to me that Luther either runs the wrong route here or runs to the wrong landmark on the field, because his Stick route muddies up Colston early, who I believe to be the primary receiver on the play. This looks to be designed to hit Colston on the Slant as soon as he makes he break to give him a chance to cut up-field and split the defense for a touchdown.
2.) Caleb works off it, seeing it get muddied. Scans over DJ and sees Rome open. He rushes his delivery, failing to fully reset his base and uncorks an awkwardly delivered ball, causing it to come out flat, and short of a wide open Rome Odunze coming out of the Corner route.
3.) This part is purely subjective on how I was taught to play the position years ago: I think Rome could have done a better job coming back to his quarterback. When you’re not the primary route on a play in the redzone, especially on the opposite side of the field, I was always taught to hug the goal line on any routes that bring you into the endzone to make the throw easier for your Quarterback, even if you’re a yard closer, that’s one yard less the ball has to travel, which is all the difference here. Mentally put Rome on the goal line on the throw, this suddenly becomes a much easier play.
All that said, the throw is still on the quarterback to make, and unfortunately wonky mechanics causes a missed opportunity.
Analysis: Back to a quick and decisive throw, something we have seen highlighted in this offense the last two weeks. Bears are running a Flood at the top of the screen, and with the pre-snap motion Caleb identifies zone coverage out of the Eagles. Know that, he knows the Eagles underneath defender has to pass off Loveland to the over top defenders, so Caleb rifles a ball with anticipation through a window in the zone coverage on the numbers to Loveland for an easy 13-yards and a first. This is simple, in-structure quarterbacking that is build off successfully diagnosing a defense and attacking it properly.
Analysis: I wanted to pull this one aside as well because this is Caleb once again identifying a weakness in a defense and taking advantage of it. It’s a 3rd and 4 and from the snap this looks to be initially a designed run for D’Andre Swift, as off the snap Joe Thuney and Drew Dalman execute a Duo block on #97 Moro Ojomo, but the Eagles have a numbers advantage on the left side of the line and Caleb realizes this. So Caleb send Cole Kmet in motion, which to me tells Zaccheaus to step back for the Smoke Screen.
Caleb has to deliver the ball around Swift who is still running the initial play, and Caleb does a great job in doing so, leading Zaccheaus up-field with the throw, allowing him to pick up 11-yards and convert a 3rd down.
While it looks simple live, there’s a lot of things that need to be diagnosed correctly in order to get there.
Analysis: Last play, and were going called game from Caleb to Kmet.
On this play, it’s a lot like the first play we looked at, naked play-action boot to the left side of the field designed to give an underneath receiver an easy completion to turn up-field with. And Ben Johnson himself even admitted the play was designed to go to D’Andre Swift underneath.
One of the beautiful things about this play is that it’s also a practice in long term play calling. The Bears had been bullying the Eagles front all afternoon. On the play defensively the Eagles begin to creep their safety, #21 Sidney Brown, into the box for an 8th defender to try an stop the run. On a 2nd and 8 play the Eagles desperately need to try and stop the Bears from getting into a 3rd and short scenario, to try and force a field goal attempt.
Caleb snaps out of play-action, the safety freezes with it, Caleb initially looks to throw to Swift, but sees Kmet blowing past #32 Reed Blankenship downfield. It can’t be stressed enough on how difficult it is for a quarterback to throw from his right hand while rolling left. But Caleb flips his hips, and lofts a gorgeous fade away ball 30 air yards to Kmet at the goal line, right on the money as he hauls it in for the Dagger to the heart of the Eagles.
This is a throw that will be on highlight reels for a long time coming.
Summary
His final scores of 1st Half (-2.35) / 2nd Half (1.80) / Game (-0.55) gives him a fairly “Average” game grade for week 13.
Of the seven quarterbacks I grade Williams placed 5th this week. Fun little sidenote this was the highest average graded week of any week this year, good to see some good quarterbacking across the ones I grade!
Weekly scores of every QB I grade can be found here.
A fantastic team win that saw every phase pitch in to make a statement this week. While the stat sheet may have not reflected as such I have to agree with Ben Johnson and say this game, overall, was a step in the right direction once more. With the win the Bears secure a not only a winning record for the first time since 2018, but thanks to an upset of the Los Angeles Rams by the Carolina Panthers, the 1st seed in the NFC.
I could not have imagined this in my wildest dreams heading into week 12 we could be saying that. back in May I had predicted a 9-8 season with the lumps and learning to come with a freshman head coach season paired with what is essentially a quarterbacks rookie year redux.
The Bears head to Lambeau Field to renew the leagues oldest and most storied rivalry, a win would mean a firm grasp on the division lead with just 4 games to play afterwards. This game is shaping up to be one of the most meaningful games in sometime between the two rivals, and for the first time in a very long time, I’m looking forward to it.
As always, Bear Down, and we will see you next week!
Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.
