After Brendan Donovan went down with injury, many Mariner fans had the reasonable expectation that Colt Emerson would be his replacement. Fresh off of a record-breaking extension that pays him like an established big leaguer, the M’s instead opted for Will Wilson, a journeyman infielder with minimal production under his belt. Though the allure of calling up Emerson to make his long-awaited debut is certainly there, there are plenty of reasons why doing so would be ill-advised. The Mariners are doing what’s
right by him in the long run, and numbers back that decision up.
Emerson is doing a lot of things well right now, but there are some obvious gaps to his game that need to be ironed out before being thrown into the fire against big league competition. Currently the most readily apparent wart, his K% currently sits at 26.3%, a mark that isn’t untenable by any means, but considerably higher than his career norm. With his approach, he relies on making far more contact than he currently is, and the underlying data confirms that he’s struggling to get back to that level. It’s not for lack of trying; Emerson is near the top of the league in swing rate. That said, the usually eagle-eyed Emerson is getting fooled more than he’s used to, and that’s led to elevated chase rates. Additionally, with an In-Zone Whiff% of roughly 21%, Emerson isn’t getting to the pitches he needs to be hitting, and it’s naturally hurt his raw production.
This, however, is a natural part of the development process. His output looks like anyone would expect a 20 year old to perform in his first taste against veteran pitching. Emerson hasn’t had all that much experience against this caliber of arm, and adjusting is going to take time. That said, there’s clear evidence he’s already moving in the right direction.
For starters, Emerson has not struggled to impact the baseball whatsoever. With a robust average exit velocity that ranks in the 81st percentile of all Triple-A batters, Emerson’s power has been of little concern (his GB% is very high and has killed a lot of the production you’d typically see from someone who’s hitting the ball as hard as he is, but he’s always been someone with an elevated GB%. That should normalize as he continues to adjust to the competition). Furthermore, with a healthy BB% and K% that’s steadily on the decline, it seems evident he’s making some adjustments at the plate, ultimately getting himself into better counts that allow him to do damage. It’s incremental, but it’s progress nonetheless.
The equalizer, however, is his glove. Emerson entered the organization as a fringy shortstop that most thought was destined for the hot corner, yet has miraculously transformed himself into one of the more premiere defenders the Mariners have seen in recent years. His arm, always his best trait defensively, has remained a major asset for him, but his lateral range on the dirt has become a true separator for him. He’s making plays the Seattle infield has not made since the likes of Brendan Ryan in the early 2010’s and is sure to be a true difference maker for them on the dirt.
Emerson is one of the greenest players in Triple-A and is over seven years younger than the average player in the PCL. Getting exposed early was always a reasonable outcome for someone his age. What matters most is the fact that he’s improving, taking what’s coming to him and learning how to get better each and every game. His mindset, long lauded by teammates and the organization alike, is a huge part of what makes him great, and it’s that innate diligence that is sure to carry him through this adjustment period.
Whenever the day comes for Emerson to make his debut, he will be ready. There’s little incentive for the M’s to rush him into a big league role, and their roster carries more than enough talent to win without him on the roster. Putting a hard timeline on his development benefits nobody and puts unnecessary pressure on his improvement. Continuing to grow is what ultimately matters for Colt, and now in a decade-long marriage with the city of Seattle, it’s what fans should want as well.
