FanGraphs has given us some projections as to how the 2026 season will go for the Phillies. One projection is optimistic about their chances at winning a third straight division title, while the other thinks that run ends at two. So as not to be accused of being hostile to those with a more pessimistic outlook on the team, I’ll discuss both.
Dan Szymborski annually creates his ZiPS projections, which evaluates a full range of outcomes for each player on each team, and using that, runs a million simulations
of the season. ZiPS seems to like the Phillies, predicting a 91-win season and a first-place finish in the East.
Some of the key ZiPS predictions for individual Phillies:
- Trea Turner will lead the team in WAR, mostly because the defensive improvements of 2025 will stick.
- Bryce Harper will once again not be elite, hitting 29 home runs and playing poorly on defense.
- Justin Crawford will have a decent rookie season with 1.6 WAR.
- Zack Wheeler makes 21 starts, and is solid, if not spectacular with a 3.43 ERA.
- Andrew Painter makes 24 starts with a 4.80 ERA.
It’s somewhat confusing that ZiPS likes the Phillies’ chances considering it doesn’t seem to be especially optimistic about any of their individual players’ seasons – except perhaps for Adolis Garcia (a projected 28 home runs) and J.T. Realmuto (.742 OPS with 15 home runs).
FanGraphs has also released their playoff odds for 2026, and these are less positive towards the Phillies’ chances. They expect the Phillies to fall to third place in the East behind the Braves and Mets. They give the Phillies an 18.9% chance of winning the division, and a 65.4% chance of making the playoffs. Those playoff chances are fourth best in the National League behind the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers (99.1%!).
It makes sense that they’re so bullish on the Braves. That team has been ravaged by injuries the past two seasons, and if everyone on the roster is healthy and playing close to capabilities, they’ve probably got the most talent, particularly in the starting rotation.
Nor is it a major surprise that the Mets are ahead of them. Their lineup is expected to hit a lot of home runs, and they have a strong pitching rotation with the addition of Freddy Peralta. (Although Fangraphs doesn’t think Peralta will have that good of a year.)
If this depresses you, it would be helpful to look at Fangraph’s projections for the 2025 season. They thought the Phillies had just a 21.1% chance of winning the division, while giving the Braves a 64.2% chance. And in 2024, they thought the Braves had an 88.8% of winning the East. (Like I said, the Braves have suffered a lot of misfortune in recent years, not that I’m complaining.)
I suspect that most Phillies fans will treat these projections the way many Americans treat information these days: Take whatever matches up with your pre-existing notions, and treat that as valid, while largely ignoring whatever doesn’t. If you already believed the Phillies would be a playoff team, then this helps to reinforce that belief. If you think the Phillies are on the decline and they’re going to fall behind the Mets and Braves, well, this provides some ammunition for you as well!
Eight months from now, we’ll know which side was correct.
