Chaim Bloom and company are not expected to shop at the top of the free-agent market this offseason. But Bloom is bound to beckon a bargain-basement, battle-tested big-leaguer to bolster the beleaguered bullpen. So who’s the target? Here’s where I think he looks.
There are 82 potential free-agent relievers, according to the FanGraphs RosterResourcepage. Some of these pitchers have club options or other contract clauses that could keep them from entering the market, but it is a good pool to start with.
To identify potential diamonds in the rough, I pulled each player’s statistics for the past three seasons. Really what I am looking for is a pitcher coming off a mediocre-to-bad season who has posted exceptional metrics in a somewhat recent season. The metrics I chose to focus on were K%, fastball velocity, Chase%, Whiff%, and Stuff+. These attributes, at various levels, would seem to be the primary drivers behind last offseason’s Dustin May and Ryne Stanek signings.
With this dataset and these metrics, I sifted through the three-season leaderboard of each statistic. As you would expect, the top of the leaderboards was littered with seasons from the higher-end free agents. Adrian Morejon posted three of the top four Stuff+ seasons. Alex Vesia had three of the top ten strikeout seasons. Gregory Soto ranks as one of the hardest throwers over the past three seasons. These gentlemen, along with David Bednar, Raisel Iglesias, and Sean Newcomb, are all coming off excellent seasons and certainly do not qualify as under-the-radar. When I set the filters to pitchers who accrued 0.5 WAR or less in 2026, some interesting names started to pop up. Here are the four that I think are most likely to be on Bloom’s radar.
Bryan Abreu, RHP, 30 (Astros)
2026: 62.2 IP, 29.9 K%, 15.3 BB%, 1.29 HR/9, -0.3 WAR
Abreu has posted some of the highest highs of any current free-agent reliever over the last three seasons. His 35.5% strikeout rate in 2025 ranked first in our sample and was well earned with a 99th-percentile Whiff% (41.2%).
Abreu is coming off a terrible season where his ERA jumped from 2.28 to 3.73, his walks ballooned, and his fastball velocity dropped from 97.2 mph to 95.7 mph. He righted the ship over the season’s final three months, posting a 2.02 ERA and an xFIP of 3.39. That finish alone may take him out of the pure bounceback-candidate market.
At his best, Abreu pitched almost exclusively with his excellent four-seam fastball and slider. In his down 2026, his fastball maintained a similar movement profile, but the lost velocity made it much more hittable. Abreu threw his slider at the exact same velocity but lost over an inch of drop and an inch-and-a-half of horizontal break.
He might be a bit of a stretch for an under-the-radar signing, but if the Cardinals feel like they can get Abreu back to his 2025 form, he would be an excellent value. Even coming off a down season, he could get $10M+, but he arguably has more upside than any relief pitcher on the market, outside of Morejon.
Hunter Harvey, RHP, 32 (Cubs)
2026: 4.0 IP, 22.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 4.50 HR/9, -0.2 WAR
Harvey makes the list based on the exceptional stuff he flashed in 2024, when he showed elite velocity, averaging 98 mph on his fastball.
You can obviously ignore the 2026 stat line, but Harvey also pitched only 10.2 innings in 2025 while dealing with shoulder and adductor strains. Despite the lost season, the Cubs gave him $6M guaranteed last offseason, only to see him go down in April with triceps inflammation, suffer a stress reaction in his triceps/shoulder area in May, and never return. Harvey and the Cubs have an $8M mutual option with a $1M buyout, but I would assume the buyout is a foregone conclusion.
The Cardinals seem to have an ability to get and keep pitchers healthy, so Harvey could be an interesting match. He will surely be available for a couple million bucks. His career ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all below 3.50, so the upside is clearly there.
Caleb Thielbar, LHP, 40 (Cubs)
2026: 50.0 IP, 28.3 K%, 8.5 BB%, 1.98 HR/9, -0.2 WAR
Thielbar makes this list based on his exceptional 35.8% chase rate in 2026. This ranks as the eighth-best Chase% in our sample behind Andrew Kittredge (x3), David Bednar, Adrian Morejon, Raisel Iglesias, and Kevin Ginkel.
Thielbar may seem boring, but chase rates like this don’t grow on trees. There are other encouraging markers, too. His rough year was driven by a HR/FB rate of 16.4%, well above his 9.3% career average. He also averaged a career-high 93.4 mph on his fastball.
Thielbar received a $4.5M contract coming off a 1.1 WAR season last year, so he would surely be available for $2-$3M this offseason, assuming his mutual option with the Cubs is declined.
Matt Strahm, LHP, 35 (Royals)
2026: 35.2 IP, 18.6 K%, 8.7 BB%, 3.03 HR/9, -1.3 WAR
Strahm is on this list because he has posted fastball Stuff+ metrics that rival any of the free agents except Morejon.
Strahm had a nightmarish 2026 season with the Royals, giving up 12 home runs in 35.2 innings and sporting a 7.32 ERA. Part of the poor performance was likely tied to trying to pitch through a knee injury that he finally had surgery on in September.
From 2023 to 2025, Strahm was one of the best relievers in baseball, tying Mason Miller for the sixth-most relief pitcher WAR over that time period. His last contract included only $7.5M guaranteed despite coming off a 2-WAR season. After a disastrous 2026, Strahm is the perfect low-risk bounceback candidate, if his services can be acquired on the cheap.
Final Thoughts
After looking at the free-agent pool a bit more closely, I am convinced Ryne Stanek will be coming back. He possesses one of the best fastballs on the market and has had stretches where he showed the ability to miss bats. It might not be the most exciting move, but he does have high-octane stuff. The Cardinals will undoubtedly decline his option and explore a cheaper deal, but I am prepared for his return.
Regardless of what happens with Stanek, the trade market, or the waiver wire, I would like to see the Cardinals take a free-agent flier or two. At the premium end, Abreu makes a lot of sense. If he bounces back to 2025 form, he would meaningfully improve the team’s playoff chances or provide a valuable trade chip. If they choose to go to the lower end, Hunter Harvey is a suspiciously good match. He does not have the historical results of Strahm, but he possesses the high velocity that the Cardinals covet. Harvey looks like a higher-risk, higher-upside version of Stanek to me. None of these potential signings would make national headlines, but every once in a while, they are the difference between the playoffs and sitting at home come October.
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