I’d like to start by saying that no team is 44 players deep. Any team that loses a starter at any position, runs the risk of seeing a unit derailed. “Next man up” is not just what you hear from the Colts, it is what each team preaches. Also, no team is going to finish the season with the same 22 starters that they begin the season with. What you hope is that in the unfortunate event that you do lose a player, you lose it where you have good depth, or at a position that can be minimized a bit.
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Colts roster is set for competition at training camp and will likely stay that way until other teams start making financial decisions. I do not believe we get that impact Edge player via trade, since we do not have a 1st round pick to trade for one that could become available. That means that only players who cost more than their teams believe they are worth, are candidates to be released and subsequently signed. It is similar at WR, although there are still some free agents out there who could challenge our current group for WR3.
Now, start going through the positions and ask yourself “What happens if (insert player here) goes down?” If we keep the roster as is, seeing an Edge go down has to make you wonder what the depth would look like? The depth after Latu and Key looks capable if you are replacing Key with Clemmons or JTT and looks deep with the rookie picks, but losing Latu would be much harder to overcome.
Losing Buck or Grove would be a hit, even with an improving Adebawore and new acquisition Wooden. The running game is hurt if it is Stewart that goes down and the pass rush loses even more juice if it is Buck that misses time. Losing a starting LB might be rough. Even though we have penciled Allen and Davis-Gaither into the starting roles, we simply have a whole bunch of players that we really do not have any sort of read on, so absolutely anyone could emerge as useful or better, or never see non special teams snaps. It is hard for me to consider the impact of losing a guy that I have never seen play in Allen, but maybe one of these second tier guys will emerge. It is for this reason that I believe we see Pratt back in Indy at some point.
The defensive backfield is a group which definitely has some injury history, so just how devastating would it be to lose one? Most say Gardner, Ward, and Walley will start, so how much would losing one of them hurt? It is not a barren unit for depth, but losing either of the outside guys looks like a bigger hit than losing our slot. Also losing a boundary CB, is seeing significant cap going unutilized. At Safety, again I would predict a Bynum-Haulcey duo. The depth was addressed with the signings of Owens and Thomas, but losing Bynum would hurt. With all of the fluctuation we saw in the defensive backfield, Bynum was the constant. He may also wear the green dot, should Allen be allowed to focus on simply becoming a pro, during his rookie season.
On the other side of the ball, how devastating would losing JT be? We have guys that could work for short stretches, but I do not feel good about anyone for a prolonged stretch of games. At WR, we already feel like we are using replacement level talent at WR3. If we were to lose Pierce or Downs, we’d then be using replacement level at two WR positions. There always seems to be a stray free agent out there that can step in, but even if you make Warren more of the focus, the WR group looks weak without our WR1 or WR2. Speaking of TEs, that group may be strongest of any on our team.
The o-line is also thin, when considering depth. If you believe that we go with the group that finished last year, our depth looks like Farmer on the interior and Freeland as the Swing Tackle. Tucker has seen the field, but after that you have big question marks, even if you think Rucci was a steal that will emerge. No one besides Bortolini that is expected to make the team, has a C as their designation on the roster. I’m sure that others are being groomed during this offseason, but if anyone else besides Jim Morrissey makes a snap, it will be their first in the NFL. This makes losing Bort a scary proposition.
He is not the only lineman that it would sting to lose. Losing Raimann would see us trusting Freeland at LT, or setting off a series moves that might see Goncalves moving to RT, Travis to LT and Farmer taking over at RG. That sort of shake up is not optimal. I also think that it goes without saying, that LG falls a level and more likely two levels, if Nelson can’t answer the bell. That leaves us with three places that losing the starter, sees us asking a lot out of the next man up.
If any team loses their starting QB, they are in deep trouble. We have exhausted our opinions about Jones, Richardson, and Leonard and each ones ability has been dissected repeatedly. DJ will start as soon as he is ready. Signs are good that it will be sooner rather than later, but even though a delayed entrance as the starter would make me nervous, I would understand it. Playing him with a fracture last year, contributed to his season ending injury. If that is the case, I think some confidence in the backup is warranted.
Richardson and Leonard are said to be on equal ground, but financially, it makes sense to have AR as the backup. He has more games and it would only take a couple of good showings to see his trade value soar. Soar might be hyperbolic, but he would likely draw the sort of offer that we would accept for a player that we did not exercise the 5th year option on. You certainly have to believe he knows the offense that he has spent three years in, even if more of it has been on the sidelines and in the meeting room.
I’ve been outspoken in saying that I think Leonard got hurt by the panic decision to sign Rivers. All he gained by being around Rivers, was offset by not playing in those four games. We knew he had some moxie and he got the chance to show it in his brief time on the field. It is quite possible that he would get exposed if he was more than a backup, but I currently would not declare the season over, should he need to play for an extended amount of time.
So, who is the one player that you lower your head and mutter those dreaded, “We’re screwed” expletives’?
I am going to go with Raimann. For the reasons I shared above, I think losing him would send us on a mission to obtain something closer to replacement level, than what we currently have on the team. There are not a lot capable LTs sitting on their sofa right now, so you would be at the mercy of another teams desires for compensation. I hear that Anthony Castonzo stays in good shape and even teaches technique. He doesn’t have kids, so maybe at 37, he still has something in the tank? How much different would it be that making the call to Rivers? Someone should ask him, the next time you see him on a podcast.
