We are starting a new series here in the lab. Before we really get started I should run through the customary disclaimers and legalese. I am not advocating making any additions at the trade deadline. In fact, if you have been reading my work regularly you know I’ve argued for the exact opposite. However, when you are in school they teach you how to be a successful debater. A successful debater and persuasive writer can argue both sides of the argument.
If you ignore what the Astros record is and if
you only look at where they sit in the standings then you would have to believe they are in the hunt for a playoff berth. They sit four games behind the Mariners for the division lead and are in a similar position in the wild card chase. To be sure, there are plenty of teams in between them on both counts, but they are in striking distance and have played better baseball in May and June.
You could also point out that they were decimated by injuries early in the season and most of those important pieces are back into the fold. You can also look at the likes of Colton Gordon, Hayden Wesneski, and Ronel Blanco coming off long term injuries in July or August. So, make no mistake. I am not arguing for any of these scenarios. However, the premise is that the Astros are financially and organizationally able to make one significant addition this season. They only sit below the tax threshold by a few million and their minor league system is fairly bare.
So, what we are doing in this series is making the case for one area of the ball club to add to, We will continue this into next week because there are definitely multiple holes to fill. The question for us and for the Astros is which hole is the most significant? Today, we start with the starting rotation. We could really get bogged down in the numbers, but we will look at ERA and three popular ERA estimators in xERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP), and xFIP. The x is based on Statcast’s estimates of what it would be based on the quality of contact. First, let’s start with the Astros starters. We will include Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier because they could theoretically come back.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate drops to zero. I have mentioned “magical thinking” before. How we look at Spencer Arrighetti is a perfect example. He could be a guy that got hot at the right time when this team was desperate for any port in a storm. That has tremendous value, but his recent outings show he is probably not THAT pitcher over the long-term. The expected ERA numbers show the lag there. Eventually, the expected numbers and actual numbers will intersect.
The magical thinking comes in when fans and analysts point out that guys like Burrows and Imai look like they will bouce back, but just assume that guys like Arrighetti and Teng will keep on trucking. We are seeing that both Arrighetti and Teng have reached the end of their hot streaks and are beginning to regress to the mean. There’s a couple of things they can do without making a trade to improve their lot in life, but the bottom line is that Peter Lambert is the second best starter on this team and we have to ask ourselves if that looks like a competitive rotation.
The first thing they can do is make sure McCullers and Javier get nowhere near a major league mound. McCullers’ numbers are actually somewhat promising in that the predicted ERAs are better than his actual ERA, but they still aren’t the stuff that makes up a playoff rotation. Javier probably shouldn’t be a starter in any rotation. He probably has one more rehab outing before they need to make some major decisions. Putting him back in the rotation is likely a firable offense.
The second thing that they should strongly consider is transferring Teng back to the bullpen. He has a 5.77 ERA in eight starts, but a 1.80 ERA in 13 relief appearances. Dana Brown robbed him from San Francisco largely because he had similar blowups when they used him as a starter. Give him a pat on the back and thank him for stabilizing the ship when it was threatening to capsize. Still, this team needs to use guys in their best roles. Even if you make these two moves you have a rotation of Brown, Lambert, Arrighetti, Imai, and Burrows.
If we look at the baseball landscape, there are three starting pitchers that are widely considered as available, are in the last year of their contract, and would fit underneath the tax threshold. There is obviously a couple more that would surpass that. At this point, I am just introducing possibilities and not advocating individually for any of them.
Sandy Alcantara
Basic Numbers: 7-4, 103.1 INN, 4.18 ERA, 77 K, 24 BB
ERA estimators: 3.63 xERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.12 xFIP
I should note that Alcantara leads the National League in innings pitched. He is on pace to eclipse 200 innings and I don’t have to tell anyone how rare that is. If this move is made in July when more than half of the season is complete then his salary fits underneath the tax threshold. Essentially, this becomes similar to picking up Yusei Kikuchi and given his free agent status it probably ends up costing a similar price.
Joe Ryan
Basic Numbers: 5-3, 87.1 INN, 2.99 ERA, 99 K, 18 BB
ERA Estimators: 3.09 xERA, 2.81 FIP, 3.41 xFIP
The good news is that Ryan is actually cheaper financially than Alcantara. The bad news is that he would be considerably more expensive in terms of prospect capital. I am almost certain that an Xavier Nayens or Kevin Alvarez would be involved in such a deal and that is a horrible price for a rental. He is a grade above a Kikuchi, so he would be really nice in a playoff series, but absolutely cost prohibitive in the winter.
Tomoyuki Sugano
Basic Numbers: 7-4, 73.1 INN, 4.54 ERA, 41 K, 22 BB
ERA Estimators: 7.12 xERA, 5.27 FIP, 5.09 xFIP
Holy regression Batman! That statcast ERA looks awful. Most of it tied to a very low strikeout rate. However, when you consider his home environment, these numbers don’t look half bad. He was 10-10 with a 4.64 ERA the previous season in Baltimore. He projects as an end of the rotation arm. The Astros seem to have plenty of those. The question is if the pitching lab sees something they think they can unlock.
Putting it all together
Ryan and Alcantara look like upgrades over what you currently have. There are a number of wild cards to consider here. For one, we don’t know which teams may suddenly want to sell in late July. The American League in particular is pretty muddy as we sit here in June. Secondly, we don’t know if Jim Crane is willing to go over the threshold for anyone. There are also creative deals where money could go the other way to offset an expensive pitcher. These are all possibilities. However, given these three options, is anything particularly exciting you as an Astros fan?
