There are two major storylines heading into the Orioles’ weekend series vs. the Astros. The first revolves around the home debuts of recently promoted prospects Dylan Beavers and Samuel Basallo. The second pits the languishing Houston offense up against the dominant Orioles starting rotation.
Both Beavers and Basallo have been largely successful since making their MLB debuts in Houston, and have collectively breathed new life into the Orioles’ offense. In his first four games, Beavers is 4-for-14
with a double, an RBI and three walks. And while we’re still waiting on the powerful Basallo’s first big league blast, he has contributed five RBIs in three games while going 3-for-10. Since Beavers’ debut last Saturday, the Orioles are scoring 6.5 runs per game and are 3-1 in that stretch.
Baltimore may not need a ton of offense to take this series from Houston, however. The Astros are 3-6 in their last three series and are averaging just above two runs per game during that stretch. Heading into yesterday’s matchup against the Tigers, the Astros were mired in a 28-inning scoreless streak—a streak that ended at 31 innings on a Mauricio Dubón RBI double off Charlie Morton in the 4th. In both games that the Orioles won last weekend in Houston, Baltimore shut out the Astros while only allowing seven hits across the two wins.
Game 1: Thursday, August 21st, 7:15pm ET
Where to watch: FOX
Probable pitchers: RHP Brandon Young (1-6, 5.68 ERA, 46 K) vs. RHP Jason Alexander (3-1, 4.74 ERA, 35 K)
What’s the best way to follow up a near-perfect game? How about a second crack at the lineup you just dominated? After starting the game with 7.2 perfect innings against the ‘Stros last Friday, Brandon Young will kick off the series in Baltimore looking to shut down Houston again.
The Texas native delivered the best start of his career against his hometown team, largely thanks to great fastball command. He threw 41% heaters against Houston last time out, and not only did the Astros get a hit off the fastball, but they only had a .101 XBA on the four-seamers they did manage to get wood on. We’ve seen Trevor Rogers excel this year with a plan of attack based largely on fastball command, and it seems that Young is trying to follow suit.
Opposing the Orioles’ rookie right-hander is not the actor who played George on Seinfeld, but rather 32-year-old RHP Jason Alexander. The Northern California native is experiencing the first success of his career with the Astros this season, posting a 2.63 ERA in seven appearances. Alexander put together a quality start in his first appearance against the Orioles, going 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 HR and 6 K. The O’s will hope to be better prepared against Alexander’s changeup, after only getting one hit off the off-speed pitch last Saturday.
Game 2: Friday, August 22nd, 7:05pm ET
Where to watch: MASN/MASN+
Probable pitchers: LHP Cade Povich (2-6, 4.98 ERA, 90 K) vs. RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (2-4, 6.90 ERA, 50 K)
The Orioles deployed an opener last Saturday before turning to Povich in the second, and the left-hander delivered with a season-high 10 Ks. Povich’s fastball and changeup have been his best weapons all season, but against the Astros he had his curveball working. The ‘Stros only got three hits (all singles) off his breaking ball, while generating five swings and misses.
Povich will try and maintain that level of success as he returns to Camden Yards. The second-year left-hander has a 6.05 ERA in Camden Yards this season, compared to 3.86 ERA on the road. Povich faced off against Astros once before in Baltimore, taking a no-decision after putting up 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 HR and 3 K. Slim has been hit particularly hard by Astros’ trade deadline acquisition Carlos Correa, who’s 4-for-8 against him with a homer.
The Orioles’ lefty will try to outduel former All-Star Lance McCullers Jr. as he continues his recovery from a series of devastating injuries. A former key component in two World Series-winning teams, McCullers missed all of the 2023 and 2024 seasons due to complications from elbow surgery. His return to the mound in 2025 has been less than promising, as he has a career-worst 6.90 ERA while allowing nearly 2 HRs and 6 BBs per nine innings. Of the current Orioles, only Ryan Mountcastle and Adley Rutschman have faced McCullers, combining to go 0-for-4.
Game 3: Saturday, August 23rd, 7:05pm ET
Where to watch: MASN/MASN+
Probable pitchers: RHP Dean Kremer (9-9, 3.97 ERA, 123 K) vs. RHP Cristian Javier (1-1, 3.38 ERA, 7 K)
After Rogers, Kremer is the biggest contributor to the Orioles’ rotation, owning the best ERA in MLB during the month of August. The 29-year-old has a 2.14 ERA over three starts in August, and a 3.23 ERA in 39 IP across six second-half starts.
The Orioles and Kremer were unlucky losers in the first five of those starts, but the six-year vet picked up his first win of the second half last time out against the Astros. Like Young, Kremer dominated the Houston lineup, tossing seven shutout innings, while allowing only four baserunners and punching out seven. That was just the latest chapter in a career full of dominance against the Astros, as Kremer goes into Saturday’s matchup with a 1.47 ERA and .188 average against in five career starts vs. Houston.
Like McCullers, Javier is just working his way back from an elbow injury that cost him most of last season and the first four months of this season. Javier made only his second appearance of the season last Sunday—when he also faced off with Kremer—going 3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER and 2 K in a 12-0 Orioles win. It’s not clear how many pitches Houston want Javier throwing at this point; he pitched five innings on 85 pitches in his first start off the IL, but only threw 50 pitches against Baltimore before leaving with an illness.
Game 4: Sunday, August 24th, 1:35pm ET
Where to watch: MASN/MASN+
Probable pitchers: LHP Trevor Rogers (6-1, 1.41 ERA, 67 K) vs. RHP Spencer Arrighetti (1-4, 6.94 ERA, 21 K)
Rogers didn’t get the chance to face the Astros in Houston, but will look to continue his unprecedented run when he closes out the series in Baltimore. Rogers’ 1.41 ERA gives him the best ERA over a pitcher’s first 12 starts in Orioles history—beating out Hall of Famers Hoyt Wilhelm and Jim Palmer. The 27-year-old southpaw is in the middle of a streak of eight straight quality starts, and hasn’t allowed more than one run in an outing in over a month.
Rogers has only faced the Astros once before in his career, putting up a start of 5.1, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB and 5 K last season right before the All-Star break. It’s a testament to how far Rogers has come with the Orioles that, if he were to repeat the same stat line Sunday vs. Houston, it’d be considered a bad start for Baltimore’s burgeoning ace.
How Rogers approaches the Astros lineup will be interesting. Up until this point, Rogers has thrown ~40% fastballs and 25% changeups, while mixing in his breaking balls as needed. The Astros are a much better hitting team against fastballs than changeups, so we’ll see if he deploys a similar game plan to his outing against the Phillies, when he threw his change 36% of the time.
On the opposite end of the spectrum from Rogers is Astros’ scheduled starter Spencer Arrighetti. Since being recalled on August 8th, Arrighetti has a 7.90 ERA over 13.2 innings while giving up a .339 average and .571 slugging percentage. The Houston area native took the L in his last start against the Tigers, giving up five runs over five innings while allowing two HRs in a 10-0 Astros’ loss.
