Utah State is coming off an important win over San Jose State and currently sits at 4-3 (2-1) on the season. Bryson Barnes has thrown for 1,644 yards and 13 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on the year.
Miles Davis is the leading rusher for Utah State, and Davis has rushed for 466 yards and three touchdowns. Braden Pegan is the leading receiver for Utah State, as he has 546 yards and four touchdowns on the season. John Miller leads Utah State in sacks (5.5) and tackles (62).
Utah State’s opponent this week, New Mexico, is currently 4-3 (1-2) this season. The Lobos are coming off a win against Nevada, and in the game against the Wolfpack, Jack Layne threw for 138 yards and rushed for 71 yards on eight carries. Tight end Dorian Thomas was the leading receiver for the Lobos with 56 receiving yards on five receptions. This is an important game for both teams as New Mexico wants to build off of the Nevada win and Utah State wants to stay on track for an opportunity to play for a Mountain West championship.
Game Time Information
Date: Saturday, October 24th
Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico
Time: 1:00 PM MTN
Line (Provided by Draftkings Sportsbook): New Mexico (-3)
Series History: Utah State leads the overall series 17-14. For the first time in 7 games, Utah State dropped a game to New Mexico in double overtime at home. That 7-game win streak against the Lobos is the longest in the series history by either team, with New Mexico’s longest win streak sitting at four games between 1956 and 1959. The largest margin of victory by either team came in 2018, when Utah State throttled New Mexico 61-19. Between 2003 and 2013, New Mexico and Utah State did not meet until Utah State’s first year in the Mountain West Conference.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Get the run game going
Utah State’s running game has struggled mightily this year. This has to do with player turnover on the offensive line and in the running back room, and a reliance on a new offensive scheme introduced by Bronco Mendenhall after he came in during the offseason. With new players on the line and in the backfield, there is a lack of continuity, and this has also resulted in penalty problems. Utah State’s offense can be consistent if it can create explosive plays, but it starts with the offensive line to provide enough protection and holes to make big plays. The one thing that Utah State doesn’t want to do in this game is become heavily reliant on Bryson Barnes. He has been able to create several explosive plays this season and carry the offense, but the Aggies need the offensive line and the running back room to step up if they want a decent chance of winning this game. Utah State needs to create balance on offense, and this only comes with being able to run the football.
2. Stop the New Mexico run game
In New Mexico’s three losses this season to Michigan, San Jose State, and Boise State, there is a common denominator: The Lobos were unable to run the ball as well as they did in their wins. Against Michigan, the Lobos had just 50 rushing yards and turned the ball over three times, losing 34-17. Against San Jose State, New Mexico had just 78 yards rushing but still had 420 yards in a 35-28 loss. Against Boise State, New Mexico had a season low of 49 yards rushing and three turnovers. The Lobos lost to the Broncos 41-25. Against Nevada, New Mexico returned to its winning ways (24-22) with 210 rushing yards, but the Lobos also committed two turnovers. The trend is that if New Mexico is not able to run the ball, its offense is not as efficient as it usually is, and New Mexico is also more prone to turning the ball over. So, Utah State needs to stop the run. Utah State’s run defense this year has been a weak point of the defense. That, in part, has to do with playing two SEC schools and Air Force in addition to facing Michigan. The Aggies’ run defense ranks 125th in the nation as they give up 222.1 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry (128th in the nation). To win this game, especially on the road, Utah State needs to come up with a plan to stop the run.
3. Improve the redzone defense
Utah State’s red-zone defense is not good at all, to say the least, and this can be attributed to poor run defense. The Utah State defense, inside the 20-yard line, has often committed critical penalties that prolong drives, which has resulted in the Utah State defense allowing opponents to score 96.4% of the time in the red zone. This number has to improve, especially since New Mexico converts in the red zone offensively 79.3% of the time. To improve on the redzone defense, it is clear that Utah State needs to focus on stopping the run game, limiting penalties, and doing something that the Aggies have been moderately good at: Creating turnovers.
Prediction
This game has the makings of an old-fashioned shootout. New Mexico’s defense has struggled this year. So has Utah State’s. New Mexico’s run game is strong. Utah State’s run defense is not. New Mexico’s passing offense is not good this year. Utah State’s passing offense has been very effective and explosive at times this year. New Mexico doesn’t commit a lot of penalties. Utah State does. New Mexico turns the ball over at a high rate. Utah State turns the ball over a little less.
This game is going to come down to who can convert more 3rd Downs, who can commit fewer penalties, and who can create explosive plays. Who is going to have success and explosive plays? Utah State’s strong passing offense? New Mexico’s strong run game? That is going to be a very important factor in this game. To win this game, Utah State has to find a way to get its defense rested and off the field to stop the New Mexico run game. Utah State’s offense has to take advantage of a defense struggling against the pass. Bryson Barnes and Braden Pegan need to create explosive plays. If Utah State can create balance through the run game, then the Aggies will have a much better chance of winning this game. The Aggies haven’t been able to run the ball, though, and their defense has often spent more time on the field. This should be a close back-and-forth game with the potential to be high scoring.
Score Prediction: New Mexico: 38; Utah State: 31
