Now we are getting to the business end of the conference. These teams all have the talent to make a run at the Big Ten title and make a deep run in the tournament. They also have real question marks and flaws to keep them from being considered favorites. In case you missed any of the previous team previews, find them here:
Part 3: The Middle
Part 2: Tournament Hopefuls
Part 1: The Bottom Feeders
7. USC
Predicted Starting Lineup
Rodney Rice, Super Senior, 20.3 ppg/3.3 rpg/6.0 apg/1.2 spg in 6 games
This is Rodney Rice’s fifth year of
college basketball, despite only playing more than eight game in a season once, two years ago for Maryland. Before that, he had his freshman season cut short by ankle and hand injuries and sat out his sophomore season after leaving Virginia Tech weeks before the season started. Last year, he transferred to USC and got off to a blistering start before suffering a season ending shoulder injury. Rice is a smooth shooter and big guard defender at 6-foot-5, but the assist numbers seem likely to be inflated playing weaker competition early in the season.
KJ Lewis, Senior, 14.9 ppg/5.1 rpg/2.5 apg/2.1 spg at Georgetown
While the scoring numbers look good as a higher volume player on a bad Georgetown team, Lewis makes his NIL on the other end of the floor. Lewis will be one of the best perimeter defenders in the conference, with size and length to harass the best guards in the Big Ten. Offensively he is not special, but can be dangerous in the open court if the Trojans play up tempo.
Alijah Arenas, Sophomore, 14.1 ppg/2.9 rpg/2.1 apg in 14 games
Gilbert’s progeny had a rough start to his college career, as the highly touted prospect had a scary car accident that put him in a medically induced coma. After recovering from the injuries suffered in the accident, Alijah tore his meniscus and missed nearly three months of his freshman season. When he came back, USC was starting to fall apart (star player Chad Baker-Mazara was dismissed shortly after), and Alijah was given a flashing green light to shoot. The results weren’t great, with a 34% field goal percentage and 21% from three. With a healthy offseason, he’s hoping to fulfill his promise as an elite shot maker.
Christian Collins, No. 5 overall freshman, 6-foot-8 power forward
Collins is the top-rated freshman in the Big Ten this year, but seems less polished than a few others (Thompson, Oladotun and Coleman in particular). He has the long arms and athleticism that scouts drool over but has not developed an advanced offensive game, relying on straight line drives and offensive rebounds. With Rice and Arenas controlling most of the usage he may not need it but will need to show a dedication to being a defender and a rebounder to stand out to NBA scouts.
Jacob Cofie, Junior, 9.9 ppg/6.8 rpg/1.8 apg/1.9 bpg
The expectation was for Cofie to play the four with UConn transfer Eric Reibe at the five, but Reibe needed offseason foot surgery that will keep him out for at least another month or two. Like almost everyone else on this roster, Cofie is an intriguing NBA prospect. Defensively, he moves his feet very well for his size, has good hands and shot blocking instincts. Offensively, he needs to improve his shooting (32% from three on low volume) but can put the ball on the floor to blow by slower centers, and is a threat as an athletic roll man.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Talentwise, just about no one in the Big Ten stacks up with the Illini as well as USC does. However, cohesion matters. Illinois has players who fit a system, while USC just has players trying to make it to the league. The returning infrastructure makes a difference, and Illinois’ offense picks on Alijas Arenas defensively.
Why They Beat Illinois
While at Maryland, Rodney Rice went off for 26 points on just 12 shots in a blowout victory in the Big Ten tournament. USC has the size to make things a little more difficult for Illinois offensively, and the shot makers in the back court to steal a win.
X Factor
How does the Arenas-Rice duo work together? Despite both being on the roster last year, they never played together, as Rice went down for the season before Arenas came back from injury. The rest of the roster is strong defensively, but these two will need to play off each other well for their offense to be respectable. Musselman will be hoping Rice’s small sample size last year was a sign of things to come as far as the scoring and playmaking, while also hoping that Arenas’ small sample size was an abberation.
Bottom Line
This team is as deep and talented as any in the Big Ten. Beyond the starters, the Ratliff twins are top-35 big men who can stretch the floor. Jalen Cox is a very good backup point guard. Isaac Bruns is a high-level shooter who scored over 20 points per game at South Dakota. Eric Reibe will be back at some point as a huge presence in the paint. Does the talent fit together though? If it does, they can push the teams at the top of the conference. I am skeptical though with so much of the talent being young, raw, and with no experience playing together.
6. Purdue
Predicted Starting Lineup
Omer Mayer, Sophomore, 5.5 ppg/1.1 rpg/1.2 apg
For the first time in four years, someone besides Braden Smith will be manning the starting point guard position for Purdue. Mayer is an Israeli import who was touted as the heir apparent and a potential NBA prospect before he even set foot on the court for Purdue last year. His performance last year was very freshman-like. He could look lost defensively and did not seem to very comfortable playing off the ball next to Braden Smith, who rarely came off the floor. With a lot more usage and time on the floor, perhaps he finds his rhythm as a sophomore. If he falters, No. 55 overall freshman Luke Ertel is getting a lot of buzz as well.
Gicarri Harris, Junior, 4.6 ppg/1.6 rpg/0.8 apg
Of all the unknown commodities at Purdue, redshirt freshman Antione West is the one getting the most attention as a breakout candidate. Matt Painter compared him to Pat Mahomes sitting behind Alex Smith his rookie year, and the offseason buzz feels a bit Keaton Wagler-ish. However, I assume he will start the year as a sixth man and Painter gives the spot to the veteran Gicarri Harris. Harris is a defensively stout guard who will be asked to pick up more of the scoring load this year.
CJ Cox, Junior, 8.5 ppg/2.8 rpg/1.3 apg
Purdue’s lone returning starter, and one of two players I am confident will start this year. Cox was a solid 3-and-D role player for Purdue last year, but shows enough off the bounce flashes to picture him expanding his offensive game this year in the absence of Smith, Loyer and Kaufman-Renn. If this is the lineup, the 6-foot-3 Cox or the 6-foot-4 Mayer will have to play big against some bigger small forwards in the Big Ten.
Caden Pierce, Super Senior, 11.2 ppg/7.2 rpg/3.2 apg at Princeton in 2024-25
Caden Pierce had an unorthodox path to the transfer portal. The Illinois native started as a freshman on the Princeton team that made a Sweet Sixteen run as a 15-seed, before becoming a star for Princeton as a sophomore, nearly averaging a double-double with 16.6 points and 9.2 rebounds. He took a step back as a junior though, commanding a smaller share of the Princeton offense, before sitting out his senior year to maintain a year of eligibility to transfer to a power conference school after graduating from Princeton. Kind of cool seeing a kid who cares about the student part of student-athlete still. He is short for a power forward at 6-foot-7 but strongly built and an instinctual rebounder. He can do a bit of everything as a stretch four, although he will likely find fewer mismatches to take advantage of his post-up game in the Big Ten. 6-foot-6 returning sophomore Jack Benter could also be the starter here if Painter wants a high-end shooter here for floor spacing.
Daniel Jacobsen, Junior, 5.5 ppg/3.0 rpg/0.3 apg/1.2 bpg
Jacobsen is the other Purdue starter that I can pencil in with some confidence. They have French import Enzo Shahrvin as an athletic, rebounding option to back him up, but only Jacobsen has the traditional Purdue size at 7-foot-4. He is a bit of a finesse big man, who will likely expand his game a bit more beyond the three-point line this season (3-8 last season). Defensively, he can be a drop coverage deterrent but needs to improve his positioning and lateral movement to maximize the impact of his size.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Tomislav and Zvonomir pull Jacobsen away from the basket, leaving space for Stojakovic and Mirkovic to take advantage of their size advantages and score at the basket.
Why They Beat Illinois
A bit of Mackey Magic and a taste of their own medicine, as Purdue spreads the floor with shooters, forcing Mirkovic and the Ivisic twins to extend out to the perimeter. Illinois misses Keaton Wagler’s 46 points, and Antione West returns the favor to a certain extent with a 30+ performance.
X Factor
Daniel Jacobsen. Purdue under Painter has been so hard to play with a parade of impact 7-footers. Trey Kaufman-Renn was not 7-feet but was an impactful big man and a very dangerous pick and roll partner for Braden Smith. The guard depth is strong, there are unknowns but with so many dart throws, some of them are bound to stick. At center, Jacobsen needs to take big strides for Purdue to continue their run of top 4 seeds in every NCAA tournament since the Covid cancelled tournament. That covid year team was the last one that was not on track to qualify for the tournament, and not coincidentally was the weakest center rotation Painter has had in a very long time, with Matt Haarms and a freshman Trevion Williams. There are some similarities in Jacobsen’s game to Haarms, who was softer than most Purdue giants. If he cannot deliver better than Haarms did, Purdue could slide deeper into the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, although I highly doubt they slip far enough to miss the tournament.
Bottom Line
This is a massive transition for the Boilermakers, having said goodbye to the trio of Smith, Loyer and Kaufman-Renn. While there are lots of question marks on the roster, there are a plethora of potential answers as well. Some respect should be put on Painter’s name for being able to get the best out of a roster. Without the fairly weak defensive combo of Smith and Loyer, Purdue should be stronger defensively to make up for some of the lost firepower offensively. Offensively, they lack interior presence but should be able to be explosive at times with a barrage of three-point shooting (Shahrvin is the only non-shooter in the rotation). I expect a good but not great year from the Boilermakers, as the roster builds to into a contender again in upcoming years.
5. Michigan
Predicted Starting Lineup
Elliot Cadeau, Senior, 10.5 ppg/2.7 rpg/5.9 apg
With Michigan’s entire championship frontcourt off to the NBA, Elliot Cadeau is expected to take carry a much heavier offensive load this year. As a role player, he fit in admirably, improving his three-point percentage to a respectable 37.6%, and throwing accurate lobs to Morez and Mara. Be prepared to hear about him being the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player over and over again. I expect his production to improve with more usage, to around fourteen or fifteen points and seven assists, but talk of him becoming one of the best point guards in the country is a bridge too far for me.
Trey McKenney, Sophomore, 9.9 ppg/2.8 rpg/0.9 apg
While I am fading the Cadeau hype, I am buying the McKenney hype. He had a solid freshman year as a sixth man but looks poised to step into the leading scorer role for Michigan. He is an above average spot up shooter, and is a strong, athletic straight-line driver, as well as a long-armed defensive menace. I would not be surprised by an All-Big Ten jump from McKenney.
Roddy Gayle*, Super Senior, 7.3 ppg/3.3 rpg/1.3 apg
This spot was supposed to be five-star freshman Brandon McCoy, but he unfortunately tore his ACL during Michigan’s offseason tour. Gayle has been given a temporary injunction for eligibility but is still uncertain to be eligible for the entire season as he awaits the hearing that will decide the case against the NCAA. If he is eligible, he will be a solid defender and off ball cutter. If he is not eligible, it will be taken by a much less proven option, either redshirt freshman Ricky Liburg or 6-foot-9 floor spacer freshman (#36 overall) Quinn Costello.
JP Estrella, Senior, 10.0 ppg/5.4 rpg/0.8 apg at Tennessee
Estrella is a high energy big who excels on the offensive glass. If the development at Michigan is similar without Dusty May as it was with him, he started testing his range a little last year, going 4-10 from three, but could see a similar uptick as Morez Johnson had last year from shooting from distance. He is a solid role player, but not likely as high upside as their bigs last year, or their other transfer big.
Moustapha Thiam, Junior, 12.8 ppg/7.1 rpg/0.5 apg/1.6 bpg at Cincinnati
Thiam is their next potential lottery pick big, but so far it has been mostly potential. He is massive at 7-foot-2 and moves well for his size. His NBA future is as a rim protector and lob threat mostly, but Thiam falls in love with the outside shot too much, despite shooting just 29% from three over two seasons. He is a physical specimen, if he just focuses on running, jumping and dunking he could easily get 15 points, 9 rebounds and 2-3 blocks a game.
Why Illinois Beats Them
With the McCoy injury, Michigan is just lacking offensive options to keep up with the Illini. They are very thin and will need Cadeau and McKenney to set up everything for them. They can ill afford any more injuries to their key players, as they do not have the depth to handle it, especially if Gayle is ruled ineligible. A little foul trouble to any of Cadeau, McKenney or Thiam and they are in a world of hurt.
Why They Beat Illinois
Defensively, they are still going to be a pain to play against. If Gayle is back, 1-5 is the strongest defensive unit in the conference. Thiam and Estrella are tough match ups for Tomi and Mirkovic, and Cadeau is a gnat defensively while McKenney and Gayle are bulldogs. They can drag the game into the mud, and their guards make just enough plays to get the win.
X Factor
Quinn Costello is an interesting contrast from the rest of the roster. In an ideal world, he comes off the bench as a stretch four who can shoot and drive past slower big men. This is not an ideal world though, and he might be needed at the small forward position. He loses some of his advantages there, as he is not strong enough yet as a freshman to bully small forwards, and could get taken advantage of defensively. New coach Mike Boynton will have to balance the scoring punch he can provide with his youthful deficiencies, but does not have a lot of other options with the upside Costello brings.
Bottom Line
Coming off the highest of highs, it’s been a rough offseason for Michigan. All of their big men popped in the draft, along with generational head coach Dusty May, and they lost their star recruit to injury. Boynton was the architect of their elite defense last year, and they should be able to continue at a high level on that end. I was lower than most on them preseason last year and was very wrong (Michigan being able to blitz teams with Lendeborg, Johnson and Mara all on the floor together completely covered over the issues I expected they’d have), but a lot of places still have them third and I just have too many questions about the coach, the offense and the depth to put them that high. We’ll see if they prove me wrong again.
4. Nebraska
Predicted Starting Lineup
Trevon Leonhardt, Senior, 11.9 ppg/5.4 rpg/6.0 apg/2.1 spg at Utah Valley
Leonhardt is scrawny mid-major 6-foot-6 playmaker. He is a typical Hoiberg under the radar transfer who can contribute to winning. There will be times when strength and athleticism give him problems, but he has a cerebral game that will translate to Hoiball. If he is guarded by smaller point guards, he is comfortable using his height to shoot contested mid-range shots over them.
Pryce Sandfort, Senior, 18.1 ppg/4.9 rpg/2.0 apg/1.0 spg
Sandfort needs no introduction, he will be one of the top returning players in the Big Ten this year. He came into Champaign and torched the Illini for 32 points on just 18 shots as Nebraska stole a road win last year. He can shoot his 42% three-point shot in tight spaces with a lightning quick release and good size at 6-foot-7. While he is limited athletically, he was able to make it work fitting in on a top ten defense in the country last year.
Braden Frager, Junior, 11.8 ppg/3.8 rpg/1.0 apg
Frager is the other key returnee for Nebrasketball, moving from a sixth man role last year as a redshirt freshman to the expectation of becoming the Robin to Sandfort’s Batman. He is a big lefty wing who can shoot from distance (36% last year) from a standstill or off a step back as well as put it on the deck and slash by a defender with change of pace moves. He is the only player in the Nebraska lineup with above-average athleticism and will take on a heavier defensive load this year.
Sam Orme, Senior, 12.7 ppg/5.0 rpg/1.8 apg at Belmont
Orme is similar to Leonhardt, in that he just fits what Hoiberg expects. He is not a superstar, but he is an efficient shooter (56% from the field 40% from three) who plays smart and can dribble, pass and score. He has the size to be a Big Ten power forward at 6-foot-10, but will need to adjust to the strength and athleticism.
Boden Kapke, Senior, 10.6 ppg/5.7 rpg/0.7 apg at Boston College
Kapke is a high energy 7-footer who can post up and stretch the floor. Despite his height, he is not much of a rim protector. He should thrive in Nebraska’s no-middle post trapping system. Offensively, he has a little bit of post up game and can knock it down from deep if left open. Where he will fall short of Rienk Mast last year is his ability to facilitate out of the high post. Rebounding is also a question.
Why Illinois Beats Them
They are vulnerable on the offensive glass. Their rotations lead to missed box outs, and no one crashes the glass from the guard position better than Illinois. Quentin Coleman could be on double or triple double watch in this one.
Why They Beat Illinois
They can manufacture open looks with their movement and off-ball screening. Defensively, they trap differently than most teams in the post, funneling everything to the baseline and sending an aggressive trap as soon as the post player turns that way. It leaves gaps and open threes, but they have length all over the court to get good contests on those threes.
X Factor
Last year’s X factor was coach’s son Sam Hoiberg, who was a defensive stalwart who organized the offense. With Hoiberg off to the professional ranks, Cale Jacobsen will take over that glue guy role. He might not start and he might not score more than five points a game, but for Nebraska to continue to play above their talent level, Jacobsen will need to have a Sam Hoiberg or Damonte Williams-esque impact outside the box score.
Bottom Line
It may have taken awhile, but I believe Hoiberg has figured out what he needs to do to win at Nebraska. All the transfers that they brought in just fit well around their returnees. They will be big (no starters under 6-foot-6) and interchangeable with a surplus of shooting and unselfish ball movers. The returning wings gives them a high floor, and they could easily put together another second weekend run if the defensive success is tied more to the system than the individual defenders.
3. UCLA
Predicted Starting Lineup
Jaylen Petty, Sophomore, 9.9 ppg/3.9 rpg/2.2 apg at Texas Tech
Petty is a bouncy 6-foot-1 guard with a quick first step and a dangerous shot. Playing next to superstar point guard Christian Anderson at Texas Tech he did not get a chance to be very ball dominant. Expect his usage to increase as a sophomore, as playmaking responsibilities will be more egalitarian, split between Petty, Perry and Kusturica.
Trent Perry, Junior, 12.6 ppg/3.0 rpg/2.8 apg
Perry had a similar experience to Petty last year, playing off of a ball dominant guard in Donovan Dent. He is a bigger guard with long arms who can be a fierce point-of-attack defender. Offensively, he shot nearly 40% from three and has a nice floater game. If he can become more consistent, he has a good chance to get on an All-Big Ten team.
Nikola Kusturica, 6-foot-9 freshman wing
Kusturica was the top international prospect to make his way to college basketball this offseason. He made his presence known this summer, with an eye popping 37-point performance for Serbia (with 8 offensive rebounds) in the final against the United States in the U-17 World Cup. He is a lanky shooter and playmaker in the mold of Brandon Ingram or Franz Wagner. At just 17, he will not be eligible for next year’s draft but is projected to be a top two pick in 2028, along with Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, another young freshman at Duke who is ineligible for the 2027 draft.
Eric Dailey Jr., Senior, 11.6 ppg/5.8 rpg/1.3 apg
Dailey is an athletic power forward who creates mismatches by exploding off the dribble against slower big men. If he can improve his catch and shoot threes to over 35% as he was as a sophomore, it will open up his driving lanes a bit more. At 6-foot-8, he does not provide much rim protection but can switch screens onto guards.
Xavier Booker, Senior, 7.3 ppg/3.5 rpg/0.8 apg/1.2 bpg
It seems like yesterday that Booker was a ballyhooed recruit for Tom Izzo at Michigan State, a likely one-and-done lottery pick. Fast forward three years, and he is now a veteran big man for the other screaming Napoleon in the conference. He was effective as a backup behind Tyler Bilodeau last year as a shooter (43% from three) but will need to scale that up into the starting lineup. For someone as long and athletic as he is, his defense and rebounding leave a lot to be desired. He can block shots, but also gets caught out of position too much, and the rebounding is fairly atrocious.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Because they owe us one, after coming back to steal a game we had no business losing last year. Illinois should have size advantages just about everywhere besides small forward with Kusturica to exploit match up hunting and offensive rebounding. Mirkovic in particular will be looking for his get back against his girlfriend’s team, as he had one of his worst games of the year at UCLA, after nearly being decapitated by Tyler Bilodeau.
Why They Beat Illinois
Thy are one of the few teams in the conference with the talent to go toe to toe with Illinois. Kusturica is the real deal, and their shifty guards get into the paint with regularity to steal another shoot out.
X Factor
Passable center production. I have already mentioned Booker, but they also have Auburn transfer Filip Jovic as an option who plays closer to the basket and is more aggressive on the boards but cannot shoot outside the paint. If that combo can hold up against strong big men on defense and on the glass, the playmakers on the perimeter can take this team far. Cronin’s player development chops will be put to the test here. Also, a shout out to Kusturica, if he is already a star in his first year the ceiling gets raised significantly.
Bottom Line
This team should have a high defensive floor with the athleticism and length in the lineup. Offensively, if Cronin lets them get out and run, they should score enough to cause problems for the top teams in the conference. I could see them ranging anywhere from a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament if they stay healthy and things click to a 7-seed if the players they need to improve stagnate instead.
