After the Boston Celtics’ second straight early exit from the playoffs, the topic of roster changes is inevitable. Fans like you and I can be pretty emotional in the aftermath of disappointment. Brad Stevens, however, seems to be a lot more level headed. But that doesn’t mean he won’t consider all the options before him. So let’s try to lay out the factors as calmly as possible and discuss this rationally. (Well, at least try.)
Why is this even a topic?
The Celtics won a title just 2 years ago with
a roster built around Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. So we know it can work. Shoot, Jaylen won both ECF MVP and Finals MVP, so everyone should understands that he was one of the biggest reasons for that title. I would submit that he has only gotten better since that title and just turned in his best season ever. If you only judged him on his career to this point, he would still be considered one of the many greats in the team’s history. Personally, I’m a big fan and I would like to see him retire as a Celtic after a long, productive career. I’d like to see his number retired in the banners.
So why are we talking about this? Mostly because we have to look at everything. Consider every angle before dismissing it out of hand based on emotional reflex.
For one thing, Jaylen’s value might never be higher than it is right now. He’s not a perfect player, but you can pick at nits in anyone’s game. He just proved that he can lead a solid team to a 2nd seed. You could argue that if his teammates made a few more shots or if Tatum didn’t get hurt that they’d be on to the 2nd round as planned. I think it is safe to say that a lot of teams around the league would love to have him as their leading man (and will be calling Brad to follow up on previously shot-down conversations).
There’s also the matter of spreadsheets and nerdy number crunching. Both he and Jayson are on max contracts in an era where the rules punish large payrolls. It is very hard to build a competitive roster in this era when you have multiple max guys on the roster. One could make a convincing case that breaking Brown’s contract into smaller, higher value deals would make more sense from a roster building perspective.
What does Jaylen want?
One thing that we can only speculate upon is what Jaylen Brown wants. I don’t doubt his affection for the city of Boston or the team that he’s spent his whole career with. In fact, I greatly admire his dedication to giving back to the community.
However, he’s always been somewhat in the shadow of one player or another. He said himself that this was his favorite season. Which begs the questions. Would he be happier as the number 1 option on a different team? Would he like to play for his hometown team in Atlanta? Is there another star he would like to play with?
I will note here as well: believe it or not, Jaylen is extension eligible this offseason. It just so happens that he had his best year. If he wants to leverage that to a longer term contract, will the Celtics be willing to give him the extra years? If not, how does he feel about that? Again, I don’t know anything beyond what he’s said publicly. Just thinking out loud.
What would be the return?
The only correct answer to a smug blog title that asks “Should we trade Player X?” is “Well, it depends on the return you are getting.” So let’s roll up our sleeves and peel back the layers of that answer.
We’re just entering the summer of Giannis Rumors (part 3?) and his name is bound to come up. The Celtics have already been linked (vaguely) to the Bucks superstar. Giannis had some really nice things to say about the Boston culture this year. He’s hands down a better player than Jaylen Brown, …when healthy. And there’s the rub. I just don’t know if I trust his body to hold up much longer given his age, body type, and playing style.
I can safely predict that we’ll hear more stars linked to the Celtics in various rumors in the coming months. Kawhi Leonard? Kevin Durant? Paolo Banchero? Each has their strengths and weaknesses and concerns. Personally I’m skeptical of all of the above for one reason or another. There are other big names that you could toss around, and each would need to be considered for things like fit, style, cost, and the compensation needed on either side to get a trade done.
As I mentioned earlier, the Celtics might prefer to break Brown’s deal into smaller pieces. You could logically ask why the team would let all their elite role players go one year (Jrue, Porzingis, Horford, Kornet) only to look for guys like that a year later. However, I think the team would likely be focused on younger (and perhaps healthier) options. “Like who????“ You might ask (I know you are asking). I suppose if the Cavs flame out in the 2nd round, one of their bigs (Mobley or Allen) might be available. What about Trey Murphy III? Lauri Markkanen? Onyeka Okongwu? (See, I had the guts to put some real names out there, don’t be too hard on me. I’m not proposing these deals, just listing some names to consider.)
So is this real or just another overreaction?
Most likely the latter (even if only because trades are hard), but it is certainly going to be a topic of discussion this summer. So I figured I’d get ahead of that somewhat.
The most likely scenario is that the team will happily build around Jaylen and the core players that they already have. They do have some levers to pull in terms of adding free agents. There are smaller deals that could be made (Hauser and a pick?) and bigger ones that I would hate to consider (Derrick?). The roster is also young enough that internal improvements could be a big part of the plan as well.
So ultimately I don’t think Jaylen Brown is going to be traded and I’m perfectly happy with that. He’s an All NBA level player and a champion and has a great heart for this city and this team. There should be no rush to push him out the door.
Just remember that it is Brad’s job is to consider all his options to make this team better.
