It’s Thursday, there’s football on tonight, and the Detroit Lions are playing the Buffalo Bills. It doesn’t get much more marquee than this.
This week, we had the pleasure of connecting with Matthew Byham, the Editor-in-Chief for Buffalo Rumblings, to give us some insight into who these Buffalo Bills are at this early-stage of the season. We learned that Josh Allen’s playmakers may be unlocking another level of his game, how things are coming together on the defensive side of the ball under a new
coordinator, and whether or not we can trust much of what we saw in Week 1 for both of these teams—and much more.
1. The Bills won a shootout against the Texans in Houston, 36-31, and, to no surprise, Josh Allen was at the center of it all. It looks like a big part of the Bills’ success on offense was attacking deep down the field through the air, as Allen led all quarterbacks in Week 1 with 12.6 air yards per attempt and a 24.1% deep pass rate. For reference, Allen ranked 26th in air yards per attempt (7.1) and 16th in deep pass rate in 2025. What made that strategy so effective against a formidable Texans’ defense, and do you feel like we could see more of Allen airing it out deep this week against Detroit?
What made the Bills’ deep passing attack against the Texans work so well came down to two things: talent and execution. On the former, Allen hasn’t had this level of starting depth out of the wide receivers since the heydays of Stefon Diggs that included the likes of Gabe Davis, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and later Khalil Shakir.
Now, there’s a diverse group of guys in DJ Moore, Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, and someone familiar to Lions fans in Greg Dortch. Plus, Buffalo rosters four tight ends, two of whom form a co-starting pair of complete packages in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox—DK2, if you will. They’re both incredibly athletic and equally adept at taking the top off a defense, as we saw Kincaid do several times in Week 1.
Despite the talent within Houston’s defense, the Bills liked their skill players being able to win matchups against the Texans, especially their elite defensive backfield. With Allen at quarterback, the potential is magnified.
As to him doing more of the same against Detroit? It might come down to how well the offense executes the called plays.
Well, if you listen to that windbag Nick Wright, it feels as though the Bills just need to just Josh Allen air it out all the time. I’m not against it, as a general rule, because it’s fun to watch most of the time.
That said, MVP-era Allen is a far more dangerous sort of player. That’s simply because he’s wiling to take whatever a defense gives him, while always capable of pulling the biggest play out of his pocket in the most critical moment.
The point here is that I don’t know if Allen needs to air it out to be successful given the talent around him now. It’s just that he can do it with far more success than had been the case since Diggs’ departure in 2023. Watching the passing game last season at times resembled guys trying to play on the beach during a hurricane.
2. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Buffalo utilized 13 personnel on 20 of 52 offensive plays (38.5%) in Week 1 against Houston, the highest rate in the NFL. On those 20 plays, the Bills averaged 7.0 yards per play. Most fans might be familiar with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, but who’s the third man in those sets for Buffalo, and do you think that heavy 13 personnel usage was matchup dependent or something we’ll see a lot of on Thursday?
So, I mentioned the tight end room above. However, if someone skimmed and missed it, the Bills boast riches at tight end in Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes, and Keleki Latu. You won’t often find teams with four tight ends on their 53-man roster, but that’s because most teams don’t prioritize 13 personnel.
Though the Bills featured 13 personnel (on 20 of their 56 plays — 35.7% — per my findings) their use of it shouldn’t be viewed necessarily as matchup dependent. Instead, they may be forcing opposing defenses to match up with it. Essentially dictating rather than reacting. It’s a strength they’ve built toward in recent seasons, where this year they prioritized a fourth tight end over initially adding a fullback to the 53.
I’d prepare yourself to see a good amount of snaps out of it Thursday evening, but anything’s possible. As to those players…
Kincaid is a true X-factor, to me someone “built” in the profile of Ed McCaffrey if the latter switched to tight end. Kincaid has dealt with injuries in prior seasons and the team will likely manage his workload to avoid any recurrences of those knee issues, but all reports are that he’s as healthy as ever. There isn’t a place on offense where Kincaid would struggle lining up. He’s that good, if not a bit slight if looking for a more traditional mold of tight end. Buffalo made an effort to feature him more outside and way down the middle of the field versus the Texans, and it worked like a charm. Kincaid is the type of player who you look at and go: “That dude’s just built different.”
Knox is the team’s most complete tight end, as a more traditional player who’s equally adept as an in-line blocker and downfield catching passes. He’s a glue guy for the locker room, and actually the fastest out of the group. He’s not featured in the same way as Kincaid, but he brings a lot to the offense.
They passed on a traditional fullback because Jackson Hawes is his own sort of X-factor, a guy who can take on defenders in the trenches like Patrick Ricard, but then also flank out to catch a pass with some of the softest hands you’ll find in the game. He was nearly automatic catching passes as a rookie last season, even in the end zone.
Latu is a guy who hasn’t made a ton of waves, but he’s another pass-catching specialist who One Bills Drive has put work in toward developing him for a roster spot. He’s unlikely to be featured, but it’s significant that he made the 53.
3. Buffalo’s defense, on designed runs, hit ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on 46.5% of runs in 2025 (fifth among defenses) according to Next Gen Stats. Dan Campbell mentioned the defensive line was the catalyst for Buffalo’s defense, and stopping the run will obviously be a point of emphasis for the Bills this week against the Lions. Campbell singled out “the big boy in the middle” during his Monday press conference, which I can only assume was a reference to the 6-foot-6, 345-pound Deone Walker, but who else is a part of Buffalo’s plan to stop the run? After holding the Texans running backs to just 3.5 yards per carry, how much of last year’s run stuffing has seemed to carry over into 2026?
Deone Walker man, what a steal in the fourth round! Campbell’s right, and to be clear Buffalo’s defensive line intends to be aggressive rather than just letting the offense come to them — at least part of the time. That’s been a sticking point for new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, that unlike prior defenses under Sean McDermott, they will strategically attack to keep offenses guessing.
Starting with Walker up front is another stud in Ed Oliver and also T.J. Sanders if he can go (illness/knee). Spelling Walker has been Landon Jackson, who converted from a traditional 4-3 defensive end to stay on the line in the 3-4. Buffalo also recently signed Greg Gaines, who previously played for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and directly spells Walker. When Oliver needs a break, look for DeWayne Carter.
Understand though that, right now, it’s really the Oliver-Walker show.
As to any tendencies carrying over from 2025, it’s a new system installed by a first-time NFL DC. As such, there will be growing pains and we’ve yet to see the full nature of what’s intended. Early returns were mixed, with many pointing out that the defense would have been under a ton of heat if the Bills lost.
Given the newness, it’s difficult to compare last year’s run defense to this season’s beyond the numbers. It’s an entirely different system asking different things of the line. While numbers may show that Buffalo did well against Houston’s run game overall, watching it live things felt less ideal with how often it seemed David Montgomery was slicing into the second and third level of defense, or the end zone.
4. One of Buffalo’s big acquisitions this past offseason was Bradley Chubb, who picked up three pressures in his Bills’ debut, but the defense as a whole posted just a 21.4% pressure rate–the lowest mark in Week 1. How much work do you see the pass rush needing before it finds its groove? Could it be as soon as Thursday? Do you see them being more aggressive from a blitzing standpoint than they were last week at 26.2%, 17th in the NFL?
It’s going to take a bit of time for the defense to find its groove. Again, it’s a new system with a ton of new parts and folks calling shots. I think Leonhard played it safe in Week 1 given the situation. Buffalo hadn’t won in Houston since 2006.
Of course I just got done talking about how Leonhard preaches strategic aggressiveness. I think it still holds, and was a part of last Sunday’s action, but the strategic part of it means there’s likely to be a ramping-up period. It’s easy to imagine they’re seeing guys operate on instinct a lot right now as they acclimate to the new demands.
Could they find their groove Thursday night? Sure. You pointed out Bradley Chubb, but his play went mostly unnoticed to many during the broadcast. Instead, it was Greg Rousseau who blew the roof of Reliant Stadium.
What an incredible game by Rousseau. In his first season and first career game as an OLB after converting from a 4-3 defensive end, Rousseau was a revelation. He tallied a pair of strip sacks that took the football away both during the Texans’ first drive and their final drive of the game. Stole the ball from C.J. Stroud. That’s two plays that directly impacted the final score. It was unlike anything Bills Mafia had grown accustomed to seeing from the 6’7”, 266-pound Rousseau, now in his seventh season.
The scheme changes seems to fit well with Rousseau, who also made an incredible play in pass coverage to thwart a would-be completion.
5. The Lions opened at +3.5, but the line has shifted two whole points, making the Lions 5.5-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook. What’s your score prediction for this marquee matchup on “Thursday Night Football”?
It would appear that no one warned you on my reticence to offer score predictions. I try not to put a number to these things, instead just considering recent trends and stats. A lifelong Bills fan, I also carry a true fondness for the Lions and only root against them when these two face off. Thanks to Detroit, original Bills owner Ralph C. Wilson Jr. was able to fit his team with uniforms at the beginning.
These are vastly different teams than the pair that met in 2024, but a lot of the key players remain. I could see things playing out similarly, where both defenses are shredded by the obscene amount of talent on offense. It’s true that the Lions are dealing with an awful lot of injuries to the offensive line, and of course will play without their fantastic starting safety tandem. That’s a lot to overcome.
I expect Joe Brady to entice Josh Allen to test out Detroit’s defensive backfield, and I won’t be shocked to see Jim Leonhard do the same with the offensive line. If anyone can coach through this trouble, it’s Campbell, right?
I could also see Buffalo and Detroit trying to slow the pace down and eat clock up. The one thing I believe is that the Bills don’t want to lose the first meaningful game in their brand-new stadium. The crowd will do everything possible with their voices to ensure they walk out happy.
I do wonder how much of Week 1 matters for this game. More to the point, can we trust that what happened is true for either team long term? I tend to think the Lions were caught off guard, but it was a potentially eye-opening game.
Similarly, is Buffalo as potent as Week 1 showed? Maybe, but one must also consider the massive amount of luck they found. A fumble by Cook was immediately recovered by right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, and a really bad end zone pass by Allen should have been intercepted. If either of those two things goes the other, way we might be talking about a different outcome.
I do like the Bills to win Thursday night, but no matter who walks off the field 2-0, this should be a fantastic game (and maybe a Super Bowl preview)!
