According to reporting from Spencer Nusbaum of the Athletic, the Nationals are unlikely to hand out multi-year deals to relief pitchers. Given how bad the bullpen was last season, this is probably not what fans want to be hearing. The Nats bullpen was truly painful to watch last season. With that in mind, not shopping at the top of the market is a risk.
While this is a risky move, and will not be popular with fans, there is logic behind this decision. Relievers are very volatile from year to year. Even the best bullpen arms in the sport can have sudden, unexpected fall-offs. A lot of the more analytically minded teams in the league do not love handing out big contracts to relievers, especially ones in their 30’s.
Last offseason was a great reminder of why some teams are hesitant. A lot of big name relievers signed large contracts early in the offseason. The likes of Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, Robert Suarez and Ryan Helsley all signed multi-year deals. Out of those four pitchers, Suarez was the only one who lived up to his contract in year one.
Meanwhile, Williams, Diaz and Helsley all posted ERA’s over 4. Phil Maton and Kyle Finnegan also struggled in the first year of their deals. There were some hits, such as Suarez, Luke Weaver and Tyler Rogers. However, giving these bullpen arms big money is a risky investment.
Arms such as Adrian Morejon, David Bednar and Alex Vesia would certainly win the headlines for Paul Toboni, but would they be worth the money? Morejon is going to be the most expensive, but he would also be the one I am most confident in. He does not turn 28 until February, and averages almost 100 MPH from the left side. There will be a crazy bidding war for him though, so I doubt the Nats end up winning that.
While Bednar and Vesia both have a long track record of success, history tells us they may not work out. Both of them have lost velocity over the past few years. It has not harmed them yet, but as they get deeper into their 30’s, that could be a concern. That is the type of thing Paul Toboni is absolutely paying attention to.
Even in Nats history, we have seen the risk of signing these relievers to long-term deals. The most prominent example of this is Will Harris. After five great years with the Astros, the Nats signed Harris to a 3-year deal starting in his age 35 season. His body did not hold up into his mid-30’s, and he only ended up making 28 appearances for the Nats.
We have laid out the risks of signing these relievers to multi-year deals now. However, there is a big risk in not taking action. This Nats bullpen set the all-time record for blown saves in 2026. You cannot just run back the same unit and expect different results.
Paul Toboni will have to do something to fix this bullpen. He started that process at the trade deadline, but that has to continue into the offseason. A pricey one-year deal for Raisel Iglesias is something I suggested yesterday. As the saying goes, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal.
Obviously, that is not totally true, but there is logic behind that saying. Even if the player is bad, it only hurts you for one year. The team does not get anchored to a player who they quickly realize is not someone they want. I think this is the best way to find an impact arm while minimizing the risk.
Another option would be to make a trade for bullpen help. The Nats did that last trade deadline, but they went for unproven options. Will Dion looks like a hit and Yovanny Cruz clearly has potential, but the Nats need more.
If Paul Toboni were to trade for a reliever, it would have to be an established big league arm, preferably one with high leverage experience. In one of my Dylan Crews mock trades, I sent him to the Angels for Samy Natera Jr., a young, controllable bullpen piece who has already shown great swing and miss stuff. A trade along those lines makes a lot of sense, and seems like it would be in Toboni’s wheelhouse.
There is a world where Paul Toboni could make a good enough bullpen without giving out a multi-year deal. However, he would have to get creative to get that done. If the Nats signed Iglesias and traded for Natera, I would be very bullish on the bullpen entering 2027.
It is worth noting that there are some pieces currently on the roster. I like Orlando Ribalta, Will Dion, Erik Tolman, Brad Lord and Riley Cornelio. However, there is still a clear need for true high leverage guys. If Paul Toboni finds one or two more arms, I think the ‘pen would fall into place nicely. I understand not wanting to shell out a multi-year contract, but there still needs to be big moves to complete this bullpen.
