The Dallas Cowboys hold the 12th and 20th overall selections in the upcoming draft and face the huge responsibility of coming away with meaningful defensive contributors. They have several defensive needs that expand to all positions except defensive tackle, thanks to trades last year that brought them Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.
It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys approach this. We all have our own ideas on how they should go about it, but before putting too much thought into it, we
thought it would be good to gather up some data. Our analysis is guided by scouting data points that lay out the talent distribution based on average draft positions of when certain prospects are projected to be selected. Here is the landscape of the top 100 picks for the Cowboys’ four main defensive positions of concern – cornerback, edge rusher, linebacker, and safety.
What can we conclude from this data? Here are some smoking-gun revelations that might help configure a 2026 draft strategy for the Cowboys.
The bounty at pick 12: a buyer’s market for elite defenders
The data is unequivocal. Eight potential defensive game-changers are projected to go around the top 12 picks. This scenario is a veritable smorgasbord of defensive prowess, providing the Cowboys with ample opportunity to address a critical need with an immediate impact player.
The talent pool is deep and includes all four of their key positions:
- EDGE: Reuben Bain Jr. (Miami), David Bailey (Texas Tech), and Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
- LB: Arvell Reese (Ohio State) and Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
- CB: Mansoor Delane (LSU) and Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
- S: Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
The clear mandate here is simple. Take the best player on the board. The only specific positional nuance is at safety. If the front office desires a top-tier safety, this pick (or an early second-rounder) is the only viable window to secure one. Missing out on the safety window forces the team into a dart-throwing exercise on Day 3.
The quandary at pick 20: more of a puddle than a pond
The narrative shifts dramatically when examining the 20th overall selection. This pick falls into a section of the draft profile (the green section on the chart) where elite options are scarce. Only three players are firmly projected in this range – two edge rushers and one linebacker.
If the Cowboys select an edge rusher at pick 12, the utility of pick 20 for diverse talent acquisition diminishes considerably. The choice becomes a commitment to a single position group or reaching for a player likely projected lower. The data here is not screaming “elite talent available.” It’s politely whispering, “maybe consider other options.”
This scenario makes a trade-back not just a possibility, but a strategically sound option.
The masterstroke: the trade-back scenario
The true value proposition lies in the area immediately following the 20th pick, specifically the range spanning from pick 27 to approximately pick 75 (the orange section). This is where the action is at in terms of sheer volume of starting-caliber talent for these positions.
By trading away pick 20 for multiple selections in this zone, the Cowboys can capitalize on a dense cluster of talent across edge, linebacker, and cornerback positions. The potential outcome is efficient. Coming away with three defensive starters on the first two days of the draft would be the cat’s pajamas. This kind of value engineering can turn a good draft into a franchise-altering haul, especially for a team looking to add talent for their new defensive coordinator.
The draft lottery: hope for the best, expect the worst
The Cowboys have five picks on Day 3. This includes a fourth-rounder (112), two fifth-rounders (150 and 177), a sixth-rounder (215), and a seventh-rounder (225). The chances of them finding a legitimate defender this late in the draft are slim. Over the last three drafts, they have zero starting defensive players on Day 3, whiffing on all seven of their attempts. They have hit only twice, DaRon Bland and Donovan Wilson, on their last 20 draft picks outside of the top 100 picks. That’s only a 10% hit rate. You don’t have to be a mathematician to realize their chances of scoring a starter late in the draft are nearly impossible.
Nonetheless, the team will still roll the dice and see what comes up. This is where they’re more likely to draft offensive players as they’ve had much better success in later rounds on that side of the ball. But for the team to make a real difference in fixing the defense, it will need to come from earlier draft resources.
