The Mariners have dug themselves a hole.
The Mariners have played 22 games this year, or about 13.5% of the 2026 season. They are 9-13 and in fourth place in the AL West. They’ve had losing streaks of four games and five games and haven’t looked particularly competent against anybody but the free-falling Astros. It’s a less than ideal start for a team that was considered the favorites in the American League on Opening Day.
Where do things stand?
The Mariners are still the favorites to win the AL West,
but they’ve lost about 14% from their division odds, according to FanGraphs. The Rangers, in turn, have added about 14% to their odds to win the division, after starting 11-10. Most of that movement is the Rangers three-game sweep of the Mariners in Arlington last week. The ongoing series this weekend is tied 1-1 ahead of Sunday’s rubber match. It’s suddenly a massive game for the Mariners, in the scenario where the two teams are tied 5 1/2 months from now.
The projections are still quite bullish on the Mariners overall. They hold the second best World Series odds in the American League and the fourth best odds in the majors. They haven’t really bottomed-out or experienced any major injuries to deter the projections. They also aren’t alone in their slow start: the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies and Mets have each started out several games below .500 despite strong projections. This is just kind of how it goes. Even great teams tend to play poorly at some point each season.
But as Dan Szymborski recently pointed out for FanGraphs, teams can play themselves out of the postseason with a bad April. With fairly even competition in the American League this year, a few extra losses early puts pressure on an outsized win streak later in the year. To some extent, the Mariners have used up one of their allowable skids right out of the gate. I wouldn’t say they’re far behind, but they are indeed behind.
The good news? The Mariners aren’t necessarily playing too bad. Their offense has been middle of the pack with a 96 wRC+, and their pitching has been elite, leading the league in FIP and WAR. This certainly isn’t their top gear, but Base Runs estimates the Mariners record at 12-10. They’ve been “unlucky,” in other words.
What the heck are Base Runs? You’re likely familiar with run differential, which gives us a clue about a team’s quality by looking at how many more (or less) runs they score than their opponents. Base Runs takes this a step further and estimates a team’s quality based on their performance in individual at bats. One way to think about it is five doubles in an inning and five doubles scattered across a game provide the same amount of information on a team’s true talent, according to Base Runs. It turns out this works quite well, and Base Runs is one of the essential metrics for, “Is my team playing good or bad?”
Right now, the Mariners are playing OK. They’ve bested their opponents by Base Runs in most games this year, including a few they ultimately lost. Plus, Base Runs is agnostic on Jo Adell’s Big Night — there’s a very real world where the Mainers are 13-9 right now.
Of course, by “very real world,” I mean no such thing. The Mariners really did lose those games, and they really do have to make up that ground. And there are legitimate reasons for concern. The lineup has struggled, though it’s more complicated than that. The Mariners leadoff and 5-9 hitters have posted a 122 wRC+ — third best in the majors. But their 2-4 hitters have posted a a league-worst 53 wRC+. That’s pretty much the difference between the Mariners and their potential so far. Those spots have been occupied by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and Josh Naylor, a trio that was projected among the best in the majors. You could look at this one of two ways: 1) these guys are pretty much locks to wind up well above average, and surely their best days are ahead of them, or 2) they’re wasting a narrow window of everything else going right.
The other notable hangup isn’t unexpected. The Mariners defense is just plain bad. I mean, it’s “too early to say anything definitive about 2026,” but they were really bad last year, so I expect as much. I am encouraged by Cole Young’s new range, but that seems to be offset by Brendan Donovan playing out of position (and maybe hurt).
That’s all to say:
- The Mariners were supposed to be good and they’re still supposed to be good
- The Mariners have played OK and better than their record indicates
- They haven’t bottomed out but the pressure is on
I’ll check in on these figures again at the 40-game mark in three weeks.
