Coming into week four, a game that’s been circled for both the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers for a while now, the Cowboys are home underdogs looking to avoid their first losing streak of the season.
A loss on Sunday night would also be the first time new head coach Brian Schottenheimer drops consecutive games. All head coaches in this league will go through this at some point naturally, but having three losses through his first four games – two of which in primetime and both against rivals in different ways – would create a real panic around the direction of the team and remaining goals for 2025. The Cowboys actually came out of their first primetime loss in the season opener at the Eagles with some positives, as they’re still the only opponent this reeling Cowboys defense has held below 30 points. Coming off a 31-14 loss at the Bears, the matchup for the Cowboys defense is not any more favorable going against the Packers.
Green Bay has scored 27 points in both of their wins this season, and will be looking to bounce back offensively after scoring just ten points in a loss to the Browns last week. The Cowboys are a good opponent for them to have this bounce back against, not just because of their struggling defense, but because the Packers have won five straight against the Cowboys scoring at least 30 points in all of them. The most recent Packers win against the Cowboys came at the site of this Sunday night’s meeting, when Matt LaFleur’s team came to AT&T Stadium and won 48-32 in the Wild Card playoffs of 2023. That offensive outburst stands at the most points the Packers have ever scored under LaFleur, making it the last game that Dan Quinn ever coached as defensive coordinator in Dallas.
Three of the other Packers wins over the Cowboys in their active five game streak also came on the road for the current NFC North leaders. The Packers won 34-24 in week five of 2019, a game they led 24-0 by the third quarter. They also won in week five of 2017, this time in come from behind fashion as the Cowboys led 21-6 in the first half but lost 35-31. The other relevant game here is another playoff meeting, the Divisional playoffs in 2016 where a Mason Crosby last-second field goal ended the rookie campaign for Dak Prescott. That loss saw Dallas positioned as the number one seed in the NFC a home win away from the ever-elusive Championship game. The Packers won 34-31 to end this hope for the Cowboys, which still stands as likely their best chance to advance past the Divisional round to this day, now under their third head coach since then.
This Sunday night is not quite a now-or-never game for the Cowboys, but if they are going to prove that this season has even a glimmer of hope to break “The Drought”, a win against a Packers team that has legitimate aspirations of breaking their postseason regression streak would go a very long way. The Packers hopes to be a deeper contender this season after losing in the Divisional round in 2023 and the Wild Card last year has a ton to do with their last-minute addition of Micah Parsons via trade with the Cowboys before this season’s kickoff. Packers fans have been vocal about “thanking Jerry” for the trade they see as lopsided, with Parsons making an immediate impact in weeks one and two wins versus the Lions and Commanders.
The Cowboys offense, which will be without CeeDee Lamb and Tyler Booker for this week and at least a few after it, going up against Parsons and the Packers defense may be the least of Dallas’ concerns in this matchup. This game stands to be broken most easily for the home team by their own defense again. The Packers offense will challenge them with motions, shifts, downfield threats like Romeo Doubs, and their leading receiver being tight end Tucker Kraft. Green Bay’s offense is built to stress communication issues within a defense, which is something Dallas has struggled mightily with this season.
The Cowboys lack of pass rush is also working against them versus Jordan Love, a week after the Cowboys didn’t get a single sack at the Bears. In 11 career starts where Love was not sacked, he’s completed 67% of his passes for 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. As if the memory of Love tearing up the Cowboys defense in the playoffs two years ago isn’t fresh enough, due to how shocking that total defeat was for the Cowboys, the trajectory of this defense going into yet another important game against the Packers is just as bad.
The Cowboys last win in this series was also at Lambeau Field in that 2016 season ended later by the Packers, the fifth win of an 11-game win streak. This means the last Cowboys home win against the Packers is all the way back in week 13 of 2007. Tony Romo threw four touchdowns, two to Patrick Crayton, in the 37-27 Cowboys win. The Cowboys won the following week against another NFC North team, beating the Lions to extend their win streak to seven. Ironically when it comes to their history with the Packers though, even getting this win didn’t legitimize Dallas’ spot as a playoff threat, as they lost their first game in the Divisional round to the Giants. The Cowboys won both regular season meetings against the Giants that season.
There’s nothing Dallas can do on Sunday night to prove they’ d be more ready to handle the Packers specifically in a playoff game, based on this history. These teams of course have a deep playoff history dating all the way back to the 1967 Ice Bowl. The last Cowboys playoff win against the Packers was in 1996 on the path to their most recent Super Bowl XXX victory. Sunday is not about the Cowboys getting too far ahead of themselves, even with an upset win.
The offense didn’t go without its turnover issues in their loss to the Bears, or most recent playoff loss to the Packers with Prescott throwing two interceptions, but in a vacuum their run game and still having George Pickens at receiver, as well as Jake Ferguson playing well, still gives them a chance. The defense not giving up big passing plays and points at will is going to be the focal point of this entire game, with the thoughts about what this defense could look like with Parsons running wild all night as Parsons is back in the building.
The Cowboys will be looking to replicate some of the things the Browns defense did against the Packers, only allowing them to cross midfield three times. The Browns did this despite allowing Love to complete 72% of his passes and average 7.3 yards per attempt, with Kraft catching all but one of his targets and first-round pick Matthew Golden catching all four with a long of 34 yards, and Green Bay going 10-18 on third down. The key for the Browns defense was getting five sacks, all of which led to a Packers punt. If Dallas can at least take away the run and put Love in position to test a defense that will have to come out with some new looks on the backend, this game will at bare minimum stand as another good evaluation for Schottenheimer’s offense, which is still where the hope of this Cowboys season rests. The Packers have had this same vision for their own offense for a few seasons now, and now a new outlook on defense thanks to Parsons. The 40th all-time meeting between these historic franchises could be a chapter worthy of bookmarking for a lot of reasons in primetime.
