It is June 10th and the Washington Nationals are tied for the third Wild Card spot in a competitive National League. Before the season, the thought of that would sound insane, but here we are. I dove into the stats to find some numbers that explain the rise of the Nats, and found four that stood out.
Scoring Early and Often:
At this point even casual baseball fans know the Nationals have scored the most runs in baseball. It is one of those stats that seems to get mentioned on every telecast or MLB
Network segment. Given how shocking the stat is, I do not blame the baseball media for beating it into fans’ heads. However, the Nats 362 total runs is not the stat I am highlighting here.
The first stat of the profile is 53. That is how many first inning runs the Nationals have scored after Luis Garcia Jr’s two run shot last night. This Nats team is setting the tone early and laying down the gauntlet for teams.
With the Nats shaky pitching staff, getting out to early leads is vital. The early action prevents the offense from pressing and chasing the game. A big reason why the lineup is so successful early in games is the construction. James Wood is an on base machine at the top of the lineup. He has an OBP over .400 on the season. Wood also allows his dugout to see plenty of pitches to start the ball game and is always a threat to make it 1-0 very early.
After Wood, the Nats have a fun mix of aggression and patience with Luis Garcia Jr. and Curtis Mead. Then Blake Butera puts his chief run producer CJ Abrams in the cleanup spot where he has been driving in runs for fun. This lineup is just incredibly dangerous, and they get out of the gates hot.
The Advanced Numbers Back the Nats:
It is easy to look at the runs scored number when looking at this offense. However, the lingering question all season has been whether this offense is sustainable. When you look at the advanced data, it will tell you that this Nats offense should remain a strong unit going forward.
The next number I am going to highlight is .331. That is the Nationals xwOBA, which is Baseball Savant’s stat which measures a combination of quality of contact, strikeouts and walks. This link has a deeper description of what the stat measures. Basically, it is trying to measure the hitters true skill level based on things they can control.
The Nats .331 xwOBA is the fourth best in baseball, only behind the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves. What this is telling me is that the Nats offense is not doing anything unsustainable at the moment. Of course, players on the team could slow down, but right now, it is not like the Nats are getting lucky. In fact, their wOBA of .326 is lower than their xwOBA mark, so if anything they are getting unlucky.
A big driver of the Nats xwOBA dominance is James Wood. Among qualified hitters, Wood’s .429 xwOBA is second in baseball behind Yordan Alvarez. Wood’s savant page is bleeding red from all the things he is elite at. He hits the ball harder than anyone, he is barreling everything and his bat speed is also elite. There is a reason James Wood is one of the best hitters in the sport.
While I still doubt the Nats will finish the season with the most runs in baseball, this offense is legit. I would not be that surprised anymore if they finish as a top 5 scoring offense in the sport. That would have been an insane thing to say at the beginning of the season. You have to credit these young hitters for blossoming and Matt Borgschulte for getting the best out of these guys.
The Bullpen is not Great But it is Better:
Last season, the Nationals bullpen was an absolute joke. They had the worst bullpen ERA in the sport with a 5.59 mark. At best, there were a couple guys at any given moment that were not total disasters. To start this season, it seemed like it would be more of the same. There were a number of bullpen implosions in the beginning of April that had fans on edge.
Paul Toboni did not build a bullpen that was filled with big names. Instead, he assembled an island of misfit toys. He made several waiver claims and moved starters into the bullpen. The hope was that some of these guys would stick, and the ones that did not would just be replaced.
The Nationals bullpen is not good by any means, but it is no longer a disaster. As a unit, they have a 4.58 ERA, which is just over a run lower than last year. Instead of being the worst bullpen in baseball, they are now the 8th worst.
For me, Gus Varland is the poster boy of this new bullpen. He was a waiver claim who has bounced around a lot in his career. Heck, he is not even the best reliever in his family, that title would go to his brother Louis who is dominating with the Blue Jays.
Gus has not been amazing by any means, with an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.58. However, Varland has been far from a disaster and has come up with some clutch saves. His performance the other night was a good microcosm of his season. Varland came in to protect a one run lead, and while he allowed a couple baserunners, he got the job done. A commenter on here said they did not know if Varland was good but knew he had the dog in him. That is a perfect way to describe him.
Richard Lovelady is another example of a bullpen arm with questionable skill but unquestioned heart. Like Varland, he allows plenty of base runners, but usually finds a way out of jams. The Nats also have guys like Orlando Ribalta and Brad Lord that usually get out of innings with less drama. Sure, the bullpen could use further improvement, but it is no longer a massive liability.
Chicks Dig the Long Ball:
In Darnell Coles’ tenure as hitting coach, the Nats ranked 28th, 29th, 29th and 24th in home runs. This was not a team that hit for power, and the offensive philosophy was not one that prioritized the long ball. Instead, the Nats wanted to put the ball in play, and single teams to death.
This season, the Nats have 87 home runs, which is tied for 5th in baseball. That 87 number is the fourth and final key stat we will explore. Sure, James Wood and CJ Abrams’ continued development is a big part of this. The pair have 17 and 14 homers respectively.
However, those two are not the biggest reason why the Nats home run totals have shot up. The biggest factor is the power from the supporting cast. Curtis Mead never hit more than 3 homers in a season before this year, and he already has 9. Daylen Lile and Luis Garcia Jr. have 8 homers each.
The biggest surprise comes from the Nats center fielder Jacob Young, who also has 8 bombs. Entering this season, we thought we knew who Jacob Young was. His glove has always been elite, but he was not a guy who gave you any power. Young had been an everyday player the past two seasons, and hit a combined 5 home runs in that time. Now, he already has 8, and seems poised to slug at least 15 bombs.
The Young transformation is the best example of the Nats changing their offensive approach. As Dan Kolko and Kevin Frandsen have said a couple times, Young was told to hit the ball on the ground and use his speed to get hits. However, that was not working.
This offseason, Young went to Driveline to fix his swing. Instead of swinging down on the ball, Young now has a mostly level swing with a slight uppercut. That has led to him trimming his ground ball rate and pulling the ball in the air more. Young is a pretty strong guy, so if he hits the ball at the right angle, he can leave the yard. That is exactly what he has been doing this year.
Players like Young and Mead are a big reason why the Nats are top 5 in homers. They are also a big part of why the Nats currently sit in a Wild Card spot. This team has been an absolute joy to watch, and these numbers explain the Nationals dramatic turnaround.
