We looked back at the season in part 1 Thursday. Today, in advance of Selection Sunday, we look ahead to the NCAA Tournament. Note: these answers were all provided after the regular season finish against Duke, but prior to the game against Clemson in the ACC tournament.
What do you think this team’s ceiling is without Caleb?
Al: Sweet 16 is the ceiling. They are likely getting a five seed, meaning they will play a team they are at even footing with in the round of 32 should they make it, and they’ve shown with that pressure and this lineup they can perform.
Problem is in the S16, they are going to have to face one of the giants and I just think that’s where their magic runs out.
Max: I’m desperately hoping that the team makes it to the second weekend; with the right matchups and playing to their potential, I could see an exit Elite Eight.
Brandon G: (modified after the Clemson loss) Partly it depends on seeding and part depends on the team we get. If it is the team that went 5-1 before permanently losing Caleb with wins over Louisville and Clemson while giving Duke hell on their home court in the first half or even the one who basically shut down Clemson for the final 3.5 minutes of the ACC quarterfinal game, I believe that team could make the Elite Eight. However, if it is the team that got punched in the second half against Duke and most of the game against Clemson and kind of shriveled and died, then an opening round upset seems to be most likely.
Thomas: Undetermined until we see the bracket, but most likely Sweet 16. The floor is also lower, as the right 11 or 12 seed can make life difficult for the Heels without someone to lean on that’s head and shoulders better than anyone else on the floor.
Akil: I think the ceiling is making the Sweet 16. Especially if they’re a 4/5 seed, I just can’t really give this team as it exists now a fair shot against one of the 1-seeds this season, when the gap between the best teams and the rest is as big as it’s ever been.
Brandon A: This team’s ceiling is the Sweet Sixteen. I don’t think there’s enough juice on this roster to get further than that, but it’s not necessarily an indictment of the team itself. The top of the NCAA is really good, and since they would likely run into one of the one-seeds in the Sweet Sixteen, I think things end there when looking at their best-case scenario.
Matt B: Depending on their opening weekend matchups, either the Sweet 16 or Round of 32. For anything beyond that, I think they’ll need some upsets on their side of the bracket to help clear a path.
David: The right matchups could get us to the Sweet 16, and then it’s “anything can happen in one game” time. If Derek Dixon could somehow turn into Sophomore Derek Dixon a bit early, that would be awesome.
What do you think this team’s ceiling would have been with Caleb?
Al: Oddly enough the season might have ended in the same spot, ‘cause if you get paired up with say a UConn, I don’t know how Wilson really changed the chances of beating them. That said, you at least felt like they had a chance, and of course if they get by that one then the two/three seed would be “easier.” So, Final Four.
Max: I was already dreading these discussions; with Caleb Wilson, I truly believe this team could have beaten anyone in the country. Unfortunately, they also could have lost to anyone. He is such a force of nature, though, that I do think the Heels would have had an outside shot at a Final Four — and once you’re there, it’s anyone’s game.
Brandon G: I would still say Elite Eight, maybe Final Four. Caleb gave us a chance to have a bad game and still win. We don’t have that anymore, and I feel like our floor is a lot lower because of it (I could see the current team losing anywhere from opening round to Elite Eight; I think with Caleb, floor is an easy Sweet Sixteen).
Thomas: With Caleb, I think a Final Four berth was possible, although probably still unlikely barring some bracket luck. Most of the projected 1 seeds are really good; that being said, I certainly wouldn’t have had the 2022 squad making the Finals, so who knows.
Akil: They could’ve made a Final Four run for sure. They’d have had the best player on the floor in just about every game they played, and when that’s the case, you always have a chance.
Brandon A: The Final Four. Now if you’re excuse me, I’m going to cry in the car.
Matt B: At the risk of sounding delusional, you’ll never convince me they couldn’t have won the national championship fully healthy. The win over Duke is enough evidence for me that this team, at their best, could have beaten anybody in the tournament.
David: I genuinely think the growth we saw on defense and depth during Caleb’s first absence had this team primed to make a 6 game run. With Caleb, the offense had a fantastic distributed assist rate, which took a lot of pressure off Derek and Kyle to win their one-on-ones consistently. I think the offense and defense would have been there to shock the world.
Who do you think wins it all in the NCAA tournament?
Al: Michigan. Duke is scary, no doubt, but there’s something about their proclivity to let teams hang around that doesn’t work with better teams. I think UConn is going to burn out, I don’t trust Florida (the school, though the same could be said for the state), and I remember 33 years ago when Michigan faced an ACC school early, beat them, and the ACC school got revenge. Feels like the first defeat could be good for Michigan to get out of their system, and remember, Cadeau helped UNC sweep them in 2024.
Max: I plead the fifth.
Brandon G: Anybody but Duke…with a slight lean towards Houston because that is where I was born and it isn’t one of the usual suspects.
Thomas: I’d say Michigan; they seem pretty complete and went 29-2 against the 4th hardest schedule in the country.
Akil: Michigan.
Brandon A: I’m starting to feel like Florida will be able to repeat. With two key starters being injured for Duke and Michigan not doing enough to win me over, I think the Gators are going to go back to back. If Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba didn’t get hurt, though? Well….yeah, I don’t want to talk about it. I’ve said enough.
Matt B: Michigan. They’re big, they’re battle-tested, and they’re elite on both ends of the floor. FAU’s Final Four run was just the beginning for Dusty May.
David: Indiana, a used-be-great basketball school but traditionally poor football program, somehow won it all in football. So, in this upside down world of college sports, what’s a traditionally woebegone basketball school, suddenly good, that also used to be a football power? On that front, the closest I can get to the Hoosiers are the Huskers. So, Nebraska.
