Seth Trimble returned to action on Saturday afternoon after a six-week absence due to a weight room accident that broke his left forearm. Trimble had only played two games before the mishap, yet returned looking like he was in midseason form. Trimble played a team-high 38 minutes in UNC’s 71-70 win, scoring 17 points on 6-13 shooting. He also grabbed two rebounds and dished out three assists while playing his tenacious style of defense.
The Heels have done quite well while Trimble recovered; the team
was 10-1 heading into their matchup against a good Ohio State team. Their lone loss was to a now-top 10 Michigan State squad, and UNC beat good Kentucky and Georgetown squads while the senior guard was out. Sometimes a returning player can disrupt a lineup that’s clicking, but that didn’t seem to be the case against the Buckeyes. In fact, there’s some evidence that Trimble’s return could be what helps the Heels jump from a good team to a great one.
As I previously mentioned, UNC is elite at defending the two-point shot. The Heels are ranked as the 24th best team in the country in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. This ranking is largely due to the Heels ability to force their opponents to miss their two-point shots, largely because the Heels have the height to make life in the paint miserable for most teams. Interestingly enough, UNC is among the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers, ranking 354th out of 365 teams in turnover percentage. Their steal percentage also ranks 306th in the country, as the Heels average a steal on only 7.6% of their defensive possessions. UNC’s defensive strength relies on solid positional defense, not forcing turnovers.
Trimble should almost certainly help these numbers. While he didn’t record any steals against in the win over Ohio State, Trimble led the team in steals per game last year. Maybe I’m looking through light blue tinted glasses, but I doubt Jeremy Fears Jr. dices UNC up in their loss to Michigan State if Trimble was on the court. If his return improves the defensive turnover numbers even a little, UNC could make the leap from a good defensive team to potentially a top 15 one.
On offense, the Heels have had a couple weaknesses: poor free throw shooting (68.9% as a team) and marginal three-point shooting (32.5%, 217th in the country). Trimble should help in both of these categories as well. He’s a lifetime 75% free throw shooter and tends to draw fouls with his ability to attack the basket and absorb contact. Trimble hasn’t traditionally been a knockdown shooter from beyond the arc (he shot a bad 26.6% last year), yet there’s evidence he could help the UNC here as well. It’s unlikely he shoots that poorly again this year; he went 3-5 against OSU in his first game back. Perhaps more importantly, Trimble is the best guard on the team at driving to the rim. I expect as defenses are forced to collapse on him more often, he will have the option to kick out to open three-point shooters. Granted, the requires the Heels to actually hit those shots; but the extra attention opposing defenses will owe Trimble — at least in theory — should make some of those threes easier to hit.
It’s not often a team can be ranked in the top 15 and still expect to get one of their better playmakers back, but that’s the reality for this UNC squad. Here’s hoping he’s the piece that makes an already good UNC team make the jump to great one.
