Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees can still be class of the AL

NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 29: Gerrit Cole #45 and Cam Schlittler #31 of the New York Yankees talk before the second game of a doubleheader against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on August 29, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images Over the past two seas

What is the story about?

Over the past two seasons, Carlos Rodón has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. After winning 18 games and finishing sixth in Cy Young voting in an All-Star 2025, he’s been even better when healthy this year, posting a 2.67 ERA that would be fourth-best in the AL if he had enough innings to qualify. Since returning from the IL in mid-August, it’s 1.89. Come October, most teams would be thrilled to hand him the ball in Game 1 of any series. The Yankees are expected to bounce him to the bullpen

for the Wild Card round. So deep is their rotation, fronted by Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, and Gerrit Cole, that Rodón is expendable.

When Aaron Judge went down last week with a calf injury, it was a gut punch. After holding the line without him for most of the year, the excitement of the Yankees captain returning for the stretch run was immediately punctured. Aaron Boone relayed that Judge is expected to miss the Wild Card round. While Judge himself pushed back on that assessment Wednesday, given the timing of his injury and narrow margin for recovery, it’s fair to question when he’ll be able to contribute. Judge is one of the premier difference-makers in the sport — by whatever metric you use, he’s been one of the two best players in the league for the past decade. When a team loses a player of that caliber, it’s easy to lose hope. But not only is this Yankees team still competitive, it should still be considered the favorites in the AL.

The rotation is the primary reason why. Schlittler has the Cy Young wrapped up and is squarely in the MVP conversation, leading the league in ERA while punching out 234 (and counting). He’s the kind of dominant hurler that can take over a playoff series—as he did last October—giving even a dormant offense a massive leg up. Fried, who won 19 games last year and finished fourth in Cy Young voting, has a 2.80 ERA through 20 starts and remains the game’s most consistent run preventer. And, despite concerns during a slump in early September, Cole has mostly looked like the same pitcher he was before missing a year and a half to Tommy John surgery. The Yankees’ bullpen, led by quietly elite closer David Bednar and boosted by reclamation projects Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn, has the second-lowest ERA in the game. On the strength of those two units, the team has allowed the fewest runs in baseball. If good pitching beats good hitting, the Yankees are already well on their way.

But let’s not bury the Yankees offense yet, either. To be certain, it’s been an uneven year. In addition to spending nearly the whole season without Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has underperformed, Ryan McMahon has been an offensive black hole (even after last night, his season wRC+ is just 76), Yankees catchers have hit below the Mendoza line, and Anthony Volpe played his way out of the starting shortstop job. Still, among AL playoff teams, only the White Sox have scored more runs. Ben Rice is tied for the AL lead in homers with 41 and has been one of the best hitters in baseball, Luis García Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt form a strong platoon at first, and Cody Bellinger has been his usual All-Star caliber bat. Murderers’ Row, this lineup is not. But they stack up perfectly fine against the rest the AL has to offer, even without their best hitter.

Central to the Yankees’ chances is the state of their competition. The AL was taken to the woodshed this year by the NL, who dominated interleague play and stacked up four teams with a run differential above 100 to the AL’s one. That one is the Yankees, who came out 48 runs ahead of the Rays despite losing out on the AL East title. Eighty-five wins or so should carry the day in the AL Central while the AL West leader will likely land right around .500. The Rays’ extreme overperformance of their Pythagorean win total this year surely speaks to their ability to play together as a team and manager Kevin Cash’s knack for playing matchups. However, it also leaves open the question of how their style of play will transfer to October baseball, where they’ve really succeded with Cash just once (in the COVID-affected 2020).

The Yankees will face the Red Sox in the Wild Card round, a team that’s arguably also without its best playoff weapon, starter Garrett Crochet. At best, he’ll be in the bullpen, likely rusty. As Jon Morosi notes below, the Yankees’ pitching staff has held Boston at bay throughout their matchups this season.

There’s also precedent for teams making deep playoff runs while their superstar watched from the bench. Ronald Acuña Jr. missed the entire 2021 postseason as his Braves (buoyed by six shutout innings from Fried in the decisive Game 6) took the title. The 1972 A’s lost Reggie Jackson to a torn hamstring in the ALCS while winning their first pennant in 41 years but still bested the Big Red Machine in the Fall Classic. The Yankees have also found ways to win in October without much from Judge. While his presence surely impacted how opposing pitchers tackled the Yankees’ lineup, Judge batted .161 through the first two rounds of the 2024 playoffs as the Yankees nonetheless won the pennant. And while they had a red-hot Giancarlo Stanton and another all-world hitter, Juan Soto, to pick up the slack that year, the Yankees also had a significantly weaker pitching staff.

A lot can happen quickly in the postseason, and a resurgent and hungry Red Sox squad is certainly a threat, particularly in a best-two-out-of-three series. The Rays loom as well, with the regular-season standings telling a compelling story about their winning formula, and whatever teams rise from the ashes of the Central and West cannot be dismissed. Teams like the 2006 Cardinals and 2023 Rangers prove that anything can happen if you just get into the dance. But the Yankees have a formula of their own that’s even more compelling, even without their captain. In a lackluster AL, the Yankees still have the strongest pitching staff and most talented roster overall. Let the games begin.