The Basics
Team: SMU Mustangs
Location
: Dallas, TexasEnrollment: 12,544
Head Coach: Rhett Lashlee (43-18)
Record: 7-2 (5-2)
Wins: FSU, UC Davis, Missouri State, BC, UVA, Cal, VT
Losses: Louisville, Syracuse
Recruiting Rank: 38 (3 4-stars, 19 3-stars)
Transfer Portal Rank: 32 (3 4-stars, 13 3-stars)
Win Total: 8.5
Spread: Wake – 3.5
Wake Forest has maybe the biggest game in program history this week, taking on a 7-2 SMU team with major ACC Conference Championship implications on the line. With just 3 games remaining
in the season, a win would keep the Deacs alone in 2nd place in the conference and give them a tie breaker over SMU. In that scenario, Wake probably only has to win 1 of their remaining 2 games to make it to Charlotte. A loss would drop Wake into a 5-way tie for 2nd place—the Deacs would have to finish the season 2-0 and hope for a favorable tie-break scenario. The new ACC tie-break policy for a 3+ team tie uses a “Team Success Ranking” metric which is not public, but one would have to assume beating ACC teams by 40+ points would improve that ranking significantly.
Offense
Points per game: 37.0 (19th out of 138 teams)
Yards per game: 475.8 (11)
Run/pass: 51% run, 49% pass
Rush yards per game: 154.2 (70)
Pass yards per game: 321.6 (7)
3rd down conversions: 48% (20)
Sacks allowed per game: 1.6 (47)
Turnovers: 12 (75)
Based on the above stats, it’s pretty clear that the SMU offense will be the second best offense Wake has faced so far this season, behind only Miami. Despite the nearly balanced run-pass split, this is an offense that starts and goes with the passing game and QB Kevin Jennings. Jennings is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and sits at 5th in the country in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. He will be the 5th QB Wake has played this season who is top 25 in the nation in passing yards (Jennings, Mensah, Kienholz, Browne, Warren). A quick glance at the offensive profile of the Mustangs from Game On Paper shows just how important the passing game is for this team.
SMU is currently in the 90th percentile or above in passing success rate, yards per dropback, pass EPA/Play, and pass explosive percentage.
For the season, Jennings is completing 74% of his passes for 2,764 yards 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He is extremely mobile in the pocket and has a rocket arm that allows him to make throws with basically any arm angle and without having his feet set. He is not a runner like Pribula or Kienholz in the sense that he’s a threat to rush for 100 yards on designed QB runs, but he is elusive in the pocket and will buy time for his receiver to get open down the field for big plays. He is currently tied for 4th in the nation with 9.8 yards per attempt, which typically means he is throwing for big chunks of yards at the time rather than dink and dunking short routes.
Jennings has also done a much better job not turning the ball over lately—after throwing 4 picks in his first 2 ACC games of the year, Jennings has thrown just 2 interceptions since September 19th. When he can make those big plays without turning the ball over, SMU becomes a very dangerous team. The Deacs did a fantastic job against Jennings last year, holding him to 21-39 (53%), 179 yards, and 1 interception—maybe Wake DC Scottie Hazelton has the blueprint to pulling that off again this season.
Jennings has a host of weapons out wide to throw the ball to. Senior Yamir Knight is 7th in the ACC in receptions and 8th in yards with 50 catches for 626 yards and 8 touchdowns. He was a problem for the Hokies last week, catching 6 passes for 107 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Mustangs also have ECU transfer Yannick Smith, who has caught 33 passes for 521 yards and 2 touchdowns, sophomore Jalen Cooper, who has 32 catches for 487 yards and 2 touchdowns, and one of the best tight ends in the ACC in FSU transfer Randy Pittman, who has caught 25 passes for 236 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Mustangs may not have a superstar like Malachi Toney, but spreading the talent around the field may actually make them more difficult to defend.
While the defense is focused on slowing down Jennings and all those weapons, SMU has also found a bit of running game lately. The Mustangs ran for 256 yards and 5 touchdowns against Cal 2 weeks ago and 219 yards and 2 touchdowns against VT last weekend. Almost all of the carries in their offense go to former NC State and Cal running back Kendrick Raphael, who has run for 755 yards and 10 touchdowns this season
The Wake Forest defense has been insane against the run so far this season—in their last 5 games against FBS teams, the Deacs are giving 46 yards per game on the ground and have only allowed 2 rushing touchdowns. As such, Raphael and the SMU rushing attack worry me significantly less than the passing game.
This is a very dangerous offense that can put up a lot of points in a hurry. The Deacs haven’t face a team that can move the ball this well since week 3 when they played Miami, so hopefully the coaching staff has them prepared to take on Jennings and the rest of the Mustangs.
Defense
Points allowed per game: 22.9 (53)
Yards allowed per game: 319.8 (27)
Rush yards allowed per game: 125.9 (46)
Pass yards allowed per game: 193.9 (42)
3rd down defense: 30% (9)
Sacks per game: 3 (13)
Turnovers Forced: 8 (112)
The SMU defense has been pretty solid so far this season too—the Mustangs have only given up over 400 yards twice, and one of those games was last week’s 51-28 win over VT. Things really start up front with the pass rush generated by the defensive line. Led by UMass transfer Marques White, who has 7.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss this season, the SMU line has been causing a lot of problems for opposing offenses.
Liberty transfer DE Aakil Washington has added 3 sacks and 5 tackles for loss, Kansas State transfer DT Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder has 2.5 sacks and 3 tackles for loss, and Louisiana Tech transfer Christian Davis has 1 sack and 4.5 tackles for loss. When Gio Lopez gets a clean pocket, he is the best quarterback in the nation—unfortunately, he just doesn’t get one that often (image from Parker Flemming). It is likely going to be tough to consistently keep the pocket clean on Saturday against this defensive line.
The other group that really stands out on this Mustang defense are the safeties. Jimmy Wyrick, a 6th year senior, has 44 combined tackles, 2 sacks, and an interception thus far this season, USF transfer Jarvis Lee has 29 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 interception, and sophomore Sael Reyes has 40 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss. These are versatile pieces that the SMU defense can put in multiple different positions on the field to cause havoc for an opposing offense.
Last year’s meeting between these two teams was a sloppy 13-12 game where the two teams combined for 550 total yards and 8 total turnovers. This year, this is a massive game for both teams, so I expect we will see a much better performance from both the Deacs and the Mustangs. Wake handed SMU their first ever ACC regular season loss last year—maybe they can hand them their first ever ACC home loss this year.
Go Deacs!
