Hitting the ball hard is obviously important in the game of baseball.. And the advent of high speed cameras for Statcast enables us to measure that ability better than ever before. Exit velocity in it s various
forms is well correlated with expected batting average and expected slugging.
Sure, some hitters can be successful without big time exit velocity. But few hitters can exhibit an Ichiro-like ability to place the ball in open spaces like a tennis serve. On a consistent basis, hitters need to hit the ball hard to become a good slugger. We know the Astros value exit velocity when they send scouts out to grade potential draftees. Several of the Astros’ rookies (Cole, Melton, and Matthews) were selected because they were EV super achievers.
The most common measure is average exit velocity. And I was surprised to see the Astros ranked 30th, dead last, in exit velocity. Arguably, an EV metric that throws out the mis-hits and other extremes of soft contact, is a better measure EV90 (the average EV for the top 90% of batted balls) is one such measure. And the Astros still rank poorly on this metric (23rd). The Astros are also ranked poorly on Hard Hit Percent (ranked 26th).
Teams that made the post-season tend to dominate the top 10 EV teams. Of the top 10 teams, post season teams comprise 5 of the EV list and 6 of the Barrel% list. The Guardians are the only playoff team which is comparable to the Astros in EV—and the Cleveland offense isn’t considered that teams’ strong suit.
The Astros and the Mariners have been moving in the opposite directions on exit velocity. The Mariners are ranked 8th in EV and the Astros are ranked 30th. In terms of Hard Hit Percent, the Astros are ranked 26th and the Mariners are ranked 4th. Between 2024 and 2025, the Astros dropped from 15th to 26th and Mariners increased from 7th to 4th in Hard Hit%.
As mentioned above, the “expected” stats are correlated with exit velocity measures. In 2025, 7 of the top 10 xwOBA teams made the playoffs. The Astros were ranked 8th in xwOBA in 2024, but their ranking fell to 17th in 2025.
Fangraphs ranking of individual Astros (150 PA) based on EV 90:
League average for EV90 is 105.1 mph. Cam Smith and Yainer Diaz are approximately average. Alvarez, Walker, Sanchez, and Correa are above league average on EV90. The remaining Astros’ hitters are below average. For overall Average Exit Velocity, Altuve and Dubon are among the lowest in the majors (4% and 1% respectively). Paredes’ Average EV is 14 percentile. Walker and Alvarez are 70 percentile or better in terms of Average EV.
While I understand that some fans say they want to trade Walker or Sanchez, it’s fairly obvious that the Astros’ low Exit Velocity ranking would get even worse without their hard hit capability.
As noted previously, exit velocity is correlated with the expected stats like x-SLG. Alvarez, Diaz, Correa, Caratini, and Walker exhibit a x-SLG in the mid.400’s or higher which considerably exceeds their actual SLG. In the case of Alvarez and Diaz, the difference is massive—x-SLG around 70 – 100 points higher. Does this indicate that their SLG is likely to improve in 2026? Maybe. It’s not a certainty, but it would make sense. On the other hand, Paredes and Altuve exhibit a very large discrepancy between x-SLG and SLG in the opposite direction (x-SLG 50 – 60 points lower than SLG). Again, perhaps it means greater chances of SLG regression in 2026.
What are the possibilities for improving the Astros’ hard hit rate in 2026? A full season of Yordan Alvarez is likely to provide an automatic improvement. Even with injuries, Alvarez had the 5th highest EV90 in the majors. An elite (top 10) average exit velocity is the norm for Alvarez. If he is healthy, Alvarez’s plate appearances are likely to triple in 2026.
Another potential improvement in hard hit rate would occur if one or more of Zach Cole, Jacob Melton, or Brice Matthews establish themselves on the major league roster in 2026. It’s a small sample and all, but Zach Cole ranks No. 2 in EV90 (between Walker and Alvarez). In their small samples, Melton and Matthews were above average on the EV90 metric. It’s also reasonable to speculate that Cam Smith could take a step forward in 2026 and produce above average EV90.
The other possibility for hard hit improvement is acquiring additional batters with a good exit velocity history. But that possibility is limited by the financial cost.
Chandler Rome’s recent podcast discussed the challenges facing new hitting coaches: the batting order has too many similar hitters. But I suspect he was referring to the swing and chase rates of the hitters. However, it’s also possible that the batting order has too many similar hitters in terms of below average exit velocities. Batters like Altuve frequently succeed without consistently good exit velocity. While that may work in a few instances, too many low EV hitters are likely to hinder the team’s slugging capability.
