Seven years ago, the New England Patriots went up against Los Angeles Rams with the Vince Lombardi Trophy on the line and produced a historic defensive battle. Their 13-3 victory remains the lowest-scoring among the 59 Super Bowls played so far.
Why is this relevant? Because the Patriots’ return to the game’s biggest stage is shaping up as a similar affair — and not just because it features them taking on yet another NFC West representative. Both New England and the Seattle Seahawks, after all, are
entering Super Bowl LX on the back of their defenses: the Patriots’ has turned it up a notch in the playoffs and surrendered only 26 total points in three games; the Seahawks’ has been among the statistically best groups in the NFL all year long.
Needless to say, fans of hard-nosed, blue-collar football could leave Sunday quite satisfied. Which fan base will do the same, though? Let’s take a look at the two teams in some key areas to find out who may or may not have the edge when all is said and done.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Seahawks pass defense: Led by MVP candidate Drake Maye, the Patriots passing offense has been one of the best in the NFL this season. Recently, however, the unit ran into some issues: in its three playoff games — all of them against quality defensive units — it failed to duplicate the success it found earlier this year. Whether it was pass protection, receivers winning one-on-ones, or Maye’s ball security, New England’s aerial attack has yet to establish the same rhythm, consistency and big play ability it showed during the regular season. It better start soon, because Seattle’s defense is among the better ones in the NFL against the pass and has the personnel and scheme to also attack the areas that have plagued the Patriots as of late, particularly in the trenches. | Edge: Seahawks
Patriots pass defense vs. Seahawks pass offense: Sam Darnold is coming off arguably his best game as Seahawks quarterback, out-dueling another MVP-caliber QB, the Rams’ Matthew Stafford, in the NFC Championship Game. He also is equipped with an outstanding supporting cast led by first-team All-Pro receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp. And yet, none of it might matter if the Patriots defense continues to perform the way it has so far in the postseason: it’s unrelenting disruption in the form of blitzes and muddy looks up front paired with some opportunistic coverage in the backend has caused problems for offenses all playoffs. Seattle’s is a step up from the units New England has faced so far, yes, but the Patriots have the means to put serious pressure on Darnold both physically and mentally and force him off his game and into mistakes. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Seahawks run defense: The Patriots’ rushing offense started showing some signs of life over the second half of the season, but its output has still been inconsistent. That has been evident in the playoffs: through three games, the unit’s expected points added per run play is only -0.229 with a success rate of just 31.1%. And now, the it will go up against possibly the best run defense in football — a Seahawks group that has posted a -0.204 EPA per play and 36% success rate this year. New England might be able to find some success through Drake Maye scrambles or schemed misdirection runs, but Seattle is quick to the ball and capable of preventing big plays either way. Needless to say, this projects as a mismatch in the NFC champions’ favor. | Edge: Seahawks
Patriots run defense vs. Seahawks rushing offense: Speaking of mismatches in one team’s favor, the Patriots’ own run defense has been fabulous for much of the year. The only truly challenging stretch came with Milton Williams and Robert Spillane both being sidelined. The former is good to go on Sunday and together with Christian Barmore will pose a challenge to a solid-but-unremarkable interior offensive line. The latter, however, is a question mark after not having practiced since injuring his ankle in the AFC Championship Game. We are going with the best-case scenario here, however, and project — like he is himself — that he will be good to go. In that case, Seattle will have a tough time establishing the run quite like it has tried to throughout the season. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
If the Super Bowl turns into a defensive stalemate, the value of field position will be massive — and the two teams’ performances in the kicking game could become a key factor in deciding a winner. The Patriots and Seahawks have both found success in this area in 2025, and are quite evenly matched. However, we are still giving Seattle an edge in this head-to-head for one particular reason: the kickoff return game. While New England has had its struggles using a variety of returners and will be going up against a stout coverage group, in-season trade pickup Rashid Shaheed has been outstanding for the Seahawks both on punts and kickoffs. With yards at a premium, his presence — particularly as a kickoff returner — could turn out to be a difference-maker. | Edge: Seahawks
Coaching
The Patriots and Seahawks have two of the best coaching staffs in the NFL, or else they wouldn’t be competing for the Super Bowl. Both will have their guys ready and it will be fascinating to see how they opt to attack one another come Sunday night. So, why are we giving a slight advantage to Mike Vrabel’s crew? For one, their offensive coordinator — Josh McDaniels — has immense Super Bowl experience that far surpasses any other coach in what is a unique game on the NFL schedule. In addition, New England has shown its ability to adapt and win dog fights; despite facing some serious challenges in all three playoff games so far, the team has persevered. This speaks for it players, but also the coaching staff for pushing the right buttons in the end. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
As our comparisons above show, we are projecting a close game between the AFC and NFC champions that very well could be a low-scoring affair. Are we confident predicting who will win in this scenario? No, but based on recent performance, the Seahawks being favorites does make sense: they have played a more consistent brand of football in the playoffs, especially on offense, while their defense overall is no worse than the Patriots’.
That said, anything is possible in a one-game setting. What we can say with confidence, though, is that this will be a highly-competitive contest that very well could come down to the final possession.
